Showing posts with label Arkansas State. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arkansas State. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 15, 2017
Previewing the Cure Bowl: UCF Knights versus Arkansas State Red Wolves
http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/12/16/13985976/autonation-cure-bowl-ucf-knights-arkansas-state-red-wolves-preview-odds-tv-prediction
Start Time: Saturday, December 17, 2016 at 5:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Central.
Location: Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL. The former home venue of the (then-Golden) Knights, and home to UCF stories both wonderful and strange.
TV/Streaming: CBS Sports Network
Radio: FM 96.9 The Game (Orlando)
Odds: UCF opened as a 6.5 point favorite, and now ranges between a 6 and 7 point favorite depending where you’re inclined to look.
Records: Arkansas State is 7-5 and, at
7-1 in the Sun Belt, has a share of their conference title. UCF is 6-6
(4-4 in the American Athletic Conference).
All-Time Series: 1-0, Knights. UCF beat Arkansas State 31-20 back in 1991.
About the Cure Bowl: This will only be
the second Cure Bowl played. Last year, the bowl hosted a 27-16 win by
San Jose State over Georgia State. It was the only bowl game to ever end
with two teams with losing records. But it ended up pretty good actually:
This game took two historically meh teams that had never heard of each other, plopped them in a cavernously empty stadium in not-as-warm-as-you-thought Florida, and told them they were playing for a trophy that didn't exist last year.Yet the players and fans and coaches acted as if it meant the world.The bowl appears financially solvent, and then some. Over a million real dollars went to charity.
This match-up is more compelling. Arkansas State has been
dominant in the Sun Belt for years, again winning a share of the
conference title. UCF is playing across town from its campus in its
former home venue, in a bowl for which the Executive Director Alan Gooch
is a former Knights DB, assistant coach, and (briefly) interim head
coach.
UCF Outlook: First year head coach Scott
Frost has the UCF program energized and has engineered an impressive
rebound from last year’s winless, hopeless, and joyless slog. Despite
Frost’s reputation as an offense-minded coach, the strength of the team
has been DC Erik Chinander’s defense. UCF’s most productive player (on
either side of the ball) has been one-handed linebacker and AAC defensive player of the year Shaquem Griffin. The offense has been largely dysfunctional and has struggled to execute. Freshman quarterback McKenzie Milton can be very good at times, but he can also make a ton of mistakes.
But what if I told you I thought third downs were going to be critical in the Cure Bowl, and that this would somehow favor the Knights? Now to be clear, the Knights are ranked 123rd
in the country on converting third downs. But Arkansas State also
stinks at third down conversions. In fact, The Red Wolves are one of
only five teams worse than the Knights. The UCF defense however is
ranked seventh in third down conversion defense – opposing teams are
converting only about 30% of them against the Knights.
The thing about this UCF team though is that they haven’t
beaten a good team all year. Wins have come against South Carolina
State (5-6), FIU (4-8), ECU (3-9), UConn (3-9), Tulane (4-8), and
Cincinnati (4-8). Not even the FCS school has a winning record. None of
these teams are ranked better than 91 in S&P+.
But Arkansas State’s S&P+ ranking? Oh, that’s 92.
Arkansas State Outlook: The Red Wolves
have dominated the Sun Belt in recent years, either winning outright or
sharing the conference title five of the last six years. They’ve
benefited from a string of excellent but short term coaches - Hugh
Freeze, Gus Malzahn, Bryan Harsin, and now Blake Anderson.
Anderson is known for a focus on offense. And yet, like
the Knights, defense has emerged as the strength of this Arkansas State
team. The defensive ends - Sun Belt Player of the Year Ja’Von
Rolland-Jones and Chris Odom are nasty in all the best ways. But on the
other side of the ball, the offensive line has struggled in run blocking
and pass protection. And of course there’s the poor performance on
third down. It’s going to be crucial for the line to open run lanes and
protect QB Justice Hansen and move the ball consistently.
The Red Wolves started slow this year with an 0-4 start.
And that wasn’t a murderous, front-loaded schedule. I’ll grant you
Auburn, but the other three early losses came against Toledo, Utah
State, and Central Arkansas. But Arkansas State turned it on through the
conference schedule, with only a few being close – a one point game
against Georgia Southern went Arkansas State’s way, and a five point
loss at ULL. The margins in-conference were mostly comfortable for this
team.
Prediction: I foresee a defensive
struggle. Both offenses are cripplingly flawed on third down. But I
suspect that UCF edges it out, perhaps with a critical turnover or two.
I’ll go UCF 24, Arkansas State 20.
For more on the Cure Bowl, you can check out our UCF: Get to Know the Foe over here.
UCF Fans: Get to Know Bowl Foe Arkansas State
http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/12/15/13969262/ucf-knights-arkansas-state-red-wolves-autonation-cure-bowl-2016-prevew-q-a
On Saturday, the UCF Knights will take on the Arkansas
State Red Wolves in the AutoNation Cure Bowl. We cover both teams here
at Underdog Dynasty. But to be frank, I suspect many UCF fans aren’t
overly familiar with the Red Wolves (the teams played once, in 1991, a
UCF win).
Let’s fix that.
I’ve asked our Arkansas State writer Martin L. Ferguson
some questions about his team. His answers are below. And if you want
more of Martin’s Arkansas State insights, check them out here.
1. Martin, help us understand Arkansas
State as a program. What has been its overall arc? Any program-defining
moments, heroes, or stories that UCF fans should know about?
From 1992 to 2010, ASU felt the pains of transitioning to
Division 1, going 77-162-2 with five different head coaches. The lack
of investment in the program showed in salaries, facilities, and the
general disinterest from the fan base. The recent history of ASU
football (2011-2016) has been called "The One and Done Era," and started
with the hiring of a string of young, eager, offensive minded coaches
(Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn, Bryan Harsin, and finally Blake Anderson)
that energized the program and brought success. But the program
ultimately also lost the first three to jobs at larger programs (Ole
Miss, Auburn, Boise State). That combined with the right school
president (Chuck Welch) and AD (Terry Mohajir) guiding the program,
helped lay the foundation for the first 6 consecutive winning seasons
since 1912-17.
2. Arkansas State has won the Sun Belt –
either outright or sharing the honor – five of the last six years. To
what do you attribute the Red Wolves’ recent dominance?
The magic formula seems to be a mix of factors. First,
hire young, aggressive, offensive-minded coaches who all had similar
offensive philosophies so that when they leave for a bigger job, the
recruits you have on campus somewhat fit the style and tempo of play of
the next coach. The next factor is good recruiting, which shows in the
conference rankings with ASU being one or two consistently in
recruiting. The third part of that is the commitment to facilities. The
school has already expanded its pressbox and added a club level with
luxury suites, a state-of-the-art indoor practice facility, and
eventually a new football operations center. All of these projects
combined will be more than 40 million dollars invested in the program in
5 years.
3. Who should Knights fans be most concerned about on Saturday? Is it Sun Belt Player of the Year Ja’Von Rolland-Jones?
Rolland-Jones is the Sun Belt career sack leader, but at
the other end is Chris Odom who also has 12.5 sacks on the season, one
more than Rolland-Jones. The twosome were both on the Ted Hendricks
Award watch list for best college DE in America, the only 2 teammates on
the list.
Offensively 5'5" RB Warren Wand is one to watch. Some
have called him the human Mario Kart for his agility and ability to
bounce off tacklers. He has physically willed a Red Wolves offense that
has struggled at times.
4. What do you view as the critical position match-up against my Knights?
This will be a defensive struggle I believe, so the ASU
offensive line's ability to open run lanes and protect QB Justice Hansen
will decide whether ASU can be consistent enough to get points on the
board.
5. The advanced statistics says UCF has a 61% win probability. And the Knights are a 5 to 6.5 point favorite, depending where you look. Is that fair or unfair?
Seems fair enough with this team. It has had to rely on
tough defensive play all year to be successful with the inconsistent
play of younger offensive starters and new transfers.
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