Houston defeats UCF 31-24 in comeback win

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/10/29/13466508/houston-defeats-ucf-31-24-in-comeback-win-cougars-overcome-21-point-deficit-to-beat-knights

Well, that game was a comedy of errors.

On Houston’s side, Greg Ward threw three interceptions in the first half and then the Cougars fumbled immediately to open the second half when Ward and Duke Catalon could not complete a zone-read handoff.

UCF happily reciprocated in the second half with four turnovers of its own: two interceptions and two fumbles.

Houston surged back to life and took the lead for the first time in the game with 7:27 left to play. The Cougars held on for the 31-24 win.

---

As my colleague Chas stated in the preview, it has not been a happy three weeks for the Cougars. They became marginally happier after the win over UCF but it wasn’t pretty and required an 21-point comeback in the second half to solidify.

In the first half, Houston looked tired and uninterested. The Cougars finished the first quarter with a no points and a net of ZERO rushing yards — and two interceptions by Ward.

On the first, his intended receiver Chance Allen fell down on the play and could not complete his route. On the second, the pass was tipped at the line of scrimmage.

Regardless, the Knights raced out to 14-3 lead and tacked on another TD before halftime to take a 21-3 lead into the break.

UCF outgained Houston on the ground in the first half 95 yards to -12 yards. Yes, the Cougars totaled negative rushing yards in the first half thanks to three sacks on Ward and a muffed snap that lost eight yards.

UH had no fire. No passion. No running game. No downfield strikes. No fluidity. The Cougars also gave up big penalties at bad times that helped UCF sustain drives.

The Knights mounted scoring drives of 47, 54 and 82 yards in the first half. Ironically, as you’ll see by the final rushing totals, all three TDs came on the ground: one by Jawon Hamilton, one by Adrian Killins and one by Dontravious Wilson.

But that was where the good times stopped for UCF. The second half was a complete and total role reversal — except for Houston’s first drive.

The Cougars gave the sparse crowd even less to cheer about by fumbling 36 seconds into the third quarter. UCF banked a field goal to go ahead 24-3 —

But then Houston came to life.

The Coogs scored 28 unanswered points in the second half to claim the victory.

Ward rushed in a QB keeper to get things started after the UCF field goal.

24-10 — UCF

Houston’s Nick Thurman forced a fumble on UCF’s next drive that was recovered by Steven Taylor.

Brandon Wilson ended the Knights’ next drive with an interception and Ward found tight end Romello Booker in the back of the end zone for Houston’s next TD.

24-17 — UCF

UCF moved the ball on its next drive ... but then a bad snap sailed past quarterback McKenzie Milton and he recovered it for a 13-yard loss that forced a punt.

Two drives later, Wilson picked off Milton again. Both teams struggled through the end of the third quarter, but Houston started scoring again in the fourth.

Catalon, who was helped off the field in the first half with what looked to be a painful left leg injury, busted a run around the left side for a 12-yard touchdown.

24-24

Milton was sacked and threw two incomplete passes and the ball returned to Houston.

Ward, Catalon and Dillon Birden worked the ball down the field and the drive ended with a 14-yard TD rush by Ward with 7:27 left in the game.

31-24 — Houston

Thus ended the scoring.

Overall, it was a rough game on both sides. Houston had just enough in the second half to grab the win.

The Cougars gave up four sacks. The Knights gave up three. Both teams turned the ball over four times. The most devastating part for UCF was that it rushed for a net of just 40 yards.

But the highlight for the Knights was that receiver Tre’Quan Smith hauled in 13 passes for 137 yards, a personal best. He found open holes in the Houston secondary and when Milton had time to pass, Smith was hard to stop.

NEXT WEEK: Houston has a bye. UCF is back home to face Tulane.

UCF Knights vs University of Houston Cougars: Preview, Betting Line, Start Time, TV, Radio, Prediction

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/10/28/13452662/ucf-knights-vs-university-of-houston-cougars-preview-betting-line-start-time-tv-radio-prediction

Start Time: Saturday, October 29, 2016 at 12 PM ET/11:00 AM CT.

Location: TDECU Stadium

TV/Streaming: ESPNU and WatchESPN

Radio/Live Stats: 96.9 FM740 AM (Orlando) and KPRC 950 AM (Houston) for radio. Live stats are here.

Betting Line: Houston opened as a 12.5 point favorite, but that’s shrunk a bit to -9.5 now.

Records: UCF is 4-3 and 2-1 in the AAC. The Knights have already matched our prediction for total wins this year and have progressed farther than expected in head coach Scott Frost’s first year. The Cougars are 6-2 and 3-2 AAC – a fine record but terribly disappointing given the expectations. Houston is ranked #24 in the Coaches Poll.

All-Time Series: The Knights led the series, which stretches back to these teams’ Conference USA days, at 5-2. Last year Houston crushed UCF in Orlando, prompting George O’Leary’s resignation. The last time the game was played in Houston, the Knights prevailed when Brandon Alexander forced a Greg Ward Jr. fumble through the end zone for a touch back to preserve the lead. The latter result is a more typical UCF/Houston finish – games in this series have been tight historically.

---

Houston Outlook: It hasn’t been a happy three weeks for the Cougars. Houston looked like world-beaters after slapping around the Oklahoma Sooners in week one but seem to have faded of late. October was not kind: Houston was beaten by Navy 46-40, edged out Tulsa 38-31 thanks to some Herculean efforts, and was smashed last week by SMU 38-16. The Cougars look unlikely to recapture the AAC West from Navy.

Houston has nonetheless been the better of these two teams and ought to beat the Knights. But as last week’s surprising loss demonstrates, nothing can be taken for granted, even at home. This team’s state of mind is a big question mark.

But for what it’s worth, the advanced stats give Houston a 71% chance to win and predict a margin of 9.6. I’m not sure I like the Cougars’ prospects quite that much, but it feels about right. The Knights are a bit vulnerable to a mobile quarterback, and some of the things that sank Houston last week (two fumbles lost in the first four drives!) are unlikely to recur.

UCF Outlook: Last week the Knights rebounded from their earlier soul-deadening, last second loss to Temple with a come from behind win in the greatest rivalry in college athletics an AAC East division match-up against UConn. It was a victory achieved largely on freshman quarterback McKenzie Milton’s arm (29/45, 317 yards, 3 TDs), as the Knights did not lean on the run as much as they have typically done. The game also saw freshman wide receiver Dredrick Snelson make an impact for the first time – the former four star recruit had five receptions for a team-high 63 yards and a touchdown.

SMU showed last week that Navy’s success against Houston was not an aberration. SMU capitalized on early turnovers, hounded Greg Ward Jr. (sacked 7 times), and had great success running and squatting on the ball. Could UCF do the same? Eh, maybe.

But the Knights have seldom put everything together at the same time this year. Their turnover luck has been mostly bad, and while the Knights have been successful running the ball, clock-chewing drives have not been their strong suit (Temple game, anyone?). Still, the Knights have done a fine job attacking the quarterback. Especially everyone’s favorite one-handed linebacker – Shaquem Griffin – who leads the team with six sacks and 9 tackles for loss.

It requires the Knights to play more mistake free than they have all year, but a win is certainly plausible (even if I can’t predict it’s likely).

Houston Cougars overcome slow start to crush UCF Knights, 59-10

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/10/24/9607658/houston-cougars-ucf-knights-recap

UCF Knights vs. Houston Cougars: Preview, TV, Radio, Start Time, Betting Line

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/10/23/9601490/ucf-knights-vs-houston-cougars-preview-tv-radio-start-time-betting

It's winless UCF's second consecutive match-up against an undefeated team.  The Houston Cougars travel to UCF for the Knights' homecoming game ranked #21 in the AP poll and #22 in the Coaches poll.

The Cougars are red hot and they're going to do bad, bad, things to the Knights tomorrow.

Start time: Sat., Oct. 24 at Noon.

TV: ESPNews

Location: Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando, FL

Radio: 96.9-FM & 740-AM - Orlando

Betting Line: Houston is a 22.5 point favorite.

The Series: UCF has been historically dominant against Houston, and owns a 5-1 record. The match-up has been mostly a tight one, with five of the games decided by seven points or less. The last two games in the series have had ridiculously tight endings.

In 2013, UCF edged Houston thanks to a pass break up in the end zone on fourth down:

Last year's game had an even wilder ending. Brandon Alexander forced Houston QB Greg Ward Jr.'s fumble through the end zone for a touchback, preventing what would have been the Cougar's potentially game-tying touchdown:

Well. Brandon Alexander isn't here anymore.

Houston Outlook: We don't know what George O'Leary is going to say to his team prior to their matchup with the Cougars on Saturday, but whatever it is won't be enough.   The Cougars demolished Tulane 42-7 last week, scoring a touchdown on the first play of the game and cruising from there.  Granted, at 2-4, the Green Wave far from what you would call "respectable", but the fact remains that Houston took care of business.  Now, UH gets to face (read: feast) an 0-7 UCF team that unofficially leads the nation in lowlights.

Not that the Cougs need any help.  Houston is ranked fifth nationally in points (45.7) and yards (554.7) per game, while allowing only 21.3 points and 375.7 yards per game.  The offense also averages 6.6 yards per play, good enough for 14^th in the nation.  Quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. has been central to Houston's success this season, accounting for 23 total touchdowns (14 rushing, nine passing) so far.  He's completing 71% of his passes, totaling 1524 yards and is averaging 6.78 yards per carry on the ground.  Ward, Jr. and the rest of the Cougar offense is more than capable of steamrolling the Knights, especially on the ground.

Defensively, the Cougs have the nation's leading tackler in linebacker Elandon Roberts.  Roberts has 50 total tackles through six games.  While the Cougar defense has struggled at times, don't expect that to continue against UCF, who ranks dead last nationally in total offense and averages only 3.87 yards per play and 15.7 points per game.

UCF Outlook: We hope The Basement is stocked up on kegs, because this won't be the week that UCF finally wins.

The Knights had opportunities last week in a 30-16 loss to Temple. The defense made plays (including finally an interception - Shaquill Griffin's pick six). But the offense continued to be absurdly bad, including QB Justin Holman who has been a disaster since coming back from injury against UConn. His stat line in two games back is a combined 37/81 for 322 yards, 1 TD, and 5 interceptions. Last week, UCF had four turnovers that gave field position inside Temple territory and only got a total of three points on them. The Knights had a staggeringly bad 134 yards of total offense. Things are . . . bad.

It's never a good sign when the most laudatory part of the team is the play of the kicker. We are really scrapping the bottom of the optimism barrel when we see newspaper articles raving about kicker play. That said, congratulations Matthew Wright! Despite missing what would have been a game-winning field goal against FIU, Wright's performance means the kicking game is probably the most functional part of this team. He's hit his last eight field goals (good enough to tie him for the eighth most consecutive field goals by a UCF player). He's missed only that game-losing attempt against FIU.

No way are the Knights going to be able to keep pace with the Cougars, despite a defense that is finally getting (some) things done. Iowa State transfer T.J. Mutcherson (whom we predicted to give the UCF secondary a boost this year) made an impact in his first UCF start, with seven tackles (one for a loss), a forced fumble, and two fumble recoveries last week. And of course Shaquill Griffin showed some ability with the aforementioned pick six - UCF's first defensive touchdown since 2012.

But none of this will be enough. Expect the Knights' march to 0-12 to continue tomorrow.

The AAC Has The Most Interesting Coaches in College Football: Part 4

www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/8/10/9002091/the-aac-has-the-most-interesting-coaches-in-college-football-part-4

We conclude our look at the coaches of the American Athletic Conference with the new head coaches of the West Division: Tom Herman, Chad Morris, and Philip Montgomery. All three new hires have proven track records of success on offense and have energized their respective fan bases.

Parts one through three of this series are here, here, and here.

Tom Herman (Houston)

Scott Stone: Tom Herman is an interesting coach because he comes to a program that has underachieved of late, but is still only a quality coach away from being very, very good. Herman is last year's Broyles Award winner and National Championship winning offensive coordinator.

In 2014, Herman had just two weeks to get J.T. Barrett ready after his Heisman Trophy contending QB1 went down for the season. Then he had  one week to get his third string quarterback ready for the Big 10 title game against Wisconsin, and ultimately a National Championship run against Alabama and Oregon. At Houston, Herman will have a quarterback in Greg Ward that is only a tweak or two from being as elite of a QB as we've seen at the University of Houston.

His hiring at Houston has largely been viewed as a coup. Already Herman has made huge strides in recruiting, including with the commitment of five star defensive lineman Ed Oliver. There will be a lot of eyes on him this fall to see whether the Cougars can live up to expectations.

Plus, he chained and locked the locker room and made the team earn its way back in. Pretty cool.

Chas Short: Tom Herman stole the show at West division coaches panel at AAC Media Day. It started when Tulsa's Phillip Montgomery was asked what the first thing Montgomery did as head coach was. He answered, "Kiss my wife." The question went down the line, with Chad Morris and Tom Herman offering their own riffs on this theme. Morris said that he "Kissed his family good bye" because he left them in Clemson.

Tom Herman said, "I kissed Philip's wife."

Chad Morris (SMU)

Chas Short: Make no mistake -- the Mustangs will continue to be terrible this season (though improvement is nearly a given after last year's 1-11 campaign). But with offensive guru Chad Morris at the helm, SMU should at least be interesting to watch.

The former highest-paid assistant coach in college football, Morris and his up-tempo spread attack had tremendous success at Clemson. The Tigers went from 7.3 to 10.5 wins per year with Morris as their offensive coordinator with a "basketball on grass" approach:

The modern elements added by Morris [to the Malzahn school of the spread offense] include spread alignments, the forward pass, motion, and tempo. The brilliance of the triple option is that it's a self-contained concept with built-in answers for any potential problem. Morris doesn't have any single concepts quite that simple or elegant, but in general he emphasizes a similar level of soundness in his offense.

Morris could try to have a million concepts to answer a million problems. But he would rather contain multiple answers within the same concepts. He can still use diversity -- of formations, personnel groupings, or options within a play -- but focuses on fully mastering a few versatile plans of attack.

The description "basketball on grass" is apt, but in a literal sense. It captures how the offense becomes more about getting the ideal matchups and executing options, as in basketball, rather than out-guessing the opponent. The lightning tempo utilized by Malzahn and Morris further allows for this simplicity.

Last year, the Mustangs' offense was a disaster. SMU averaged a paltry 11.08 points per game and was shutout twice. They had less than 300 yards of offense in five games. It of course remains to be seen whether Morris can bring back "Pony Express" levels of excitement to SMU, but he is already re-vitalizing a cratered program (not coincidentally, Bill C's excellent SMU preview is subtitled "Chad Morris and Way More Fun.").

Philip Montgomery (Tulsa)

Chas Short: Philip Montgomery comes to Tulsa from Baylor, where the Bears excelled with Montgomery as their offensive coordinator. Baylor just won back-to-back Big 12 Championships and had at least ten wins in three of the last four seasons. Baylor's explosive offense obviously played a huge role in this success. Baylor led the nation in total offense in 2013 and ranked second in 2012 and 2011. In the 12 games in which Montgomery called plays in 2014, the Bears averaged 581.3 yards and 48.8 points (Montgomery was out the door to Tulsa before last season's Cotton Bowl).

Montgomery steps into a situation at Tulsa where there's a real chance for an exciting leap forward on offense. Last year, Tulsa had a better than conference average 413 yards of total offense per game. Tulsa now returns a remarkable ten offensive starters, including excellent WRs in Keevan Lucas (who led the AAC in receiving touchdowns last year) and Keyarris Garrett.

It will be interesting to see whether QB Dane Evans can step up and find success in Montgomery's system. Fortunately for Tulsa fans, Montgomery has a track record of mentoring great QBs, stretching back from Baylor to his time as an assistant at Houston: Bryce Petty, Robert Griffin III, Nick Florence, Kevin Kolb, and Case Keenum.

As an Art Briles disciple, Montgomery and his offensive schemes meant this was an exciting hire for Tulsa. And given the question marks on defense, especially in the secondary, the Montgomery-led Golden Hurricane might well be the AAC team most likely to find itself in shoot-outs. Win or lose, Tulsa ought to be a fun team to watch this season.