UCF Knights vs FIU Panthers: Preview, Start Time, TV, Prediction

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/8/30/16209250/ucf-knights-vs-fiu-panthers-preview-start-time-tv-prediction-betting-line-butch-davis-scott-frost

Start Time: Thursday, August 31, 2017 at 6 PM ET

TV: CBS Sports Network

Live Coverage: AM 740/FM 96.9 The Game, ucfknights.co/FBLiveStats17 (for, uh, the live stats).

Location: Spectrum Stadium,[1] Orlando, FL

The Series: 3-2 all time, UCF has the edge. Last year, the Knights crushed the Panthers 53-14 on a drizzling evening in Miami where UCF fans greatly outnumbered the home team.

Betting Line: As of this writing, UCF is a 17 point favorite.

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UCF Outlook: This will be a better UCF team than the one that brutalized FIU last year. The Knights return many key pieces on offense last year – including sophomores McKenzie Milton (184.5 QBR against the Panthers), Jawon Hamilton (who had a largely quiet outing against FIU last time), and Adrian Killins, Jr. (who shredded the Panthers on relatively few touches - 6 rushes for 86 yards and 2 receptions for 69 yards).

But the overall question for the Knights is how much will the offense improve versus how much a defense that has to replace some of its most productive players could regress (though if you believe head coach Scott Frost, the defense could be even better this year). Keep an eye especially on the offensive line (which struggled badly as last season progressed) and the unproven cornerbacks who will face veteran receivers and a senior quarterback in FIU’s Alex McGough.

UCF’s defensive line is going to be a strength of the team (frankly, the entire front seven will be), and should be an interesting match-up against the Panthers’ veteran offensive line.

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It’s a key win for UCF to pick up. The start of the schedule is difficult. After FIU, the Knights play what should be an excellent Memphis team, and P5 foes Georgia Tech and Maryland. UCF can ill afford a faceplant here.

FIU Outlook: The Butch Davis era at FIU begins! Davis of course had a stellar tenure at the University of Miami before going on to a stint in the pros and a 28-23 stretch at UNC – where he was canned amid NCAA allegations. His landing now at FIU adds to an impressive collection of head coaches at G5 Florida schools.

FIU fans will see if any of the old Butch coaching magic remains. The sixty-five year old hasn’t coached since 2010[2], so there’s certainly a danger of some rust, especially for the opener.

The Panthers are senior-laden. All over the two deep. It may, in fact, be the country’s most experienced roster.

Alex Gardner scoring a touchdown against UCF in 2015. Hopefully the defense is ready for FIU’s all-time career leading rusher this time.

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

FIU returns McGough, seven of the top right receiving targets from last year, running back Alex Gardner (and the two backs behind him), and a veteran offensive line. If the mention of Gardner gives UCF fans shivers, that’s because he wrecked the Knights in FIU’s 2015 victory.

The cautionary note – this team may have experience, but the record of this senior class is a paltry 13-23. Though obviously, only a certain amount of that responsibility falls to these players.

Prediction: I believe this FIU team could have a decent season. But I don’t think it starts here.

The Knights defense will click better than most suspect (despite the vulnerability at CB) and the key pieces on offense will have finally developed to the point where we can see a Scott Frost offense running at a Scott Frost tempo. I’ll call it UCF 40, FIU 14. A big win, but perhaps not as gaudy as last time out.

But hey, I’ve terribly underestimated the Panthers before.

[1] Yes, formerly known as Bright House Networks Stadium. Sigh. This is the problem with the corporate sponsorships.

[2] Nope, not counting being an advisor for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2012-13.

UCF Football 2017 Season Preview

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/8/27/16207654/ucf-knights-football-2017-season-preview-central-florida-shaquem-griffin-mckenzie-milton-scott-frost

The issue for the UCF Knights this season will be straightforward – how much the offense has improved versus how much the defense has regressed. The offense gets its key pieces back, but there are many starters to be replaced on defense, especially in the secondary. If the Knights can finally run a Scott Frost offense the way it ought to be run and can come close to last year’s production on defense, UCF will be a dangerous team.

Last Year

In 2016, the Knights rode a 6-6 regular season record to the Cure Bowl, where they were hammered by a fired-up Arkansas State team that overwhelmed the Knights’ porous offensive line. But don’t let the 6-7 final record make you think Knights fans were feeling down. As frustrating as that last loss was, after a winless 2015, 2016 is was just about the best losing season a fan could ask for.

The story was simple – the Knights beat the bad teams on the schedule, including drubbings of Cincinnati, Tulane, and ECU. But UCF just could not beat any good teams. Though they came close in a literal last second loss against conference champion Temple, a seven point loss against Houston, and a double overtime loss against P5 program Maryland, the Knights could not get over the hump.

Frost followed the season with the best recruiting class of any G5 school last year, buoyed especially with a flip of RB Cordarrian Richardson (the best prospect signed by a G5 school last year).

On Offense

Frost wants to run a spread offense focused on the running game and he wants to run it fast. Last year, the Knights did not come close. The offense was abysmal, hampered by an inability to find success on early downs. The reason was obvious – the offensive line played poorly (and got worse with Tyler Hudanick’s season-ending injury and continued to get worse as the season wore on) and did no favors for freshman QB McKenzie Milton (who also struggled with accuracy and turnovers).

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I predict that will change this year, and in Frost’s second season we’ll now see an offense that executes substantially better. Though I remain concerned about the line, meaningful improvement should be expected with another year of adjusting to the blocking schemes in this offense.

Quarterback play is the other big question on the offensive side of the ball. McKenzie Milton is the obvious choice to start and will need to have improved since last year. And he better not get injured. Behind him, the Knights are thin – UCF has a pair of true freshman in Noah Vedral and Darriel Mack, Jr. Spring game warrior Pete DiNovo left the program earlier this month. This leaves Milton as the only quarterback on the roster who has played in a game. Not ideal.

Elsewhere, Knights fans can feel confident. The running back position is excellent and deep. Expect it to be led by a pair of sophomores in Jawon Hamilton (more the every down back) and speedster Adrian Killins, Jr. The Knights also have a serviceable back in junior Taj McGowan (who had significant playing time in 2015 and meaningful opportunities in 2016) and the aforementioned Richardson. This position group is in good shape for the foreseeable future.

The receiving corps will shine if Milton improves. Redshirt Junior Tre’Quan Smith consistently impresses with spectacular catches. Sophomore Dredrick Snelson shows promise. And this could also be a great year for TE Jordan Akins. Unfortunately, UCF is without the reliable option of WR Tristan Payton for half the season as he serves a suspension for a failed drug test (tested positive for marijuana).

On Defense and Special Teams

The strength of DC Erik Chinander’s 3-4 defense carried the team in 2016. And though the defense will feature numerous new starters, it doesn’t necessarily have to fall off too much.

Be confident in the front seven. Jamiyus Pittman moves from noseguard to end (with Tony Guerad on the other end) and Trysten Hill slides over to NG. The back-ups are also reliable, ensuring a solid rotation behind what should be a great starting unit. Expect them to build on last year’s very good performance.

Behind them, linebacker Shaquem Griffin (last year’s AAC Defensive Player of the Year) will continue to be the heart and soul of the defense. In his second year at the position, he’s now gained more weight and gotten stronger. Junior Titus Davis will hold down the other OLB spot. The starting ILBs are Pat Jasinski and Chequan Burkett (who flirted with leaving the program, but did not ultimately do so). The two have 19 career starts between them. Also keep your eyes peeled also for when Shawn Burgess-Becker, the redshirt sophomore transfer from Alabama at OLB, appears in the rotation; he’s one of the most physical players on the roster.

But the secondary may be a weakness that limits the ability of the front seven to create havoc. With presumptive starting CB Nevelle Clarke suspended for six games for failing a drug test (the same test Payton failed, and also for marijuana use) both CB positions were up for grabs. The first depth chart has redshirt senior Chris Johnson (a former WR who had all of two tackles last year as a DB) and redshirt freshman Brandon Moore as the starters. This looks dicey. The safety position is in steadier hands with Tre Neal and Kyle Gibson.

Special teams should continue to be mostly productive for the Knights, especially with the reliable Matthew Wright kicking field goals. Killins has the speed to take kick returns to the house. The punting game may not be terribly impressive, however.

The Schedule

The schedule is heavily front-loaded. After an opener against FIU that UCF should win, the Knights’ next three games are against Memphis, Georgia Tech, and Maryland. UCF ought to be the underdog in each of those, though all are plausibly winnable. It would be great if the Knights could get through the initial stretch at 2-2 or better. It’s an excellent opportunity to get an all too rare win over a P5 program. But 1-3 is possible. That’s the kind of start that will dampen fan enthusiasm, but which shouldn’t be realistically viewed as a crisis unless the Knights are getting blown out.

The conference slate is manageable – though not easy – with the Knights also facing Navy and SMU as foes from the west division. If the Knights don’t reach seven wins, it would be a disappointment. In terms of conference standing, finishing second in the east is an attainable goal for the Knights. And the potential ceiling on this team is high – if things click in just a few key areas, UCF could wind up being a great team.

“I’m Not Demonetizing, I Refuse to” – UCF Kicker Launches New YouTube Channel Amid Compliance Controversy

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/6/27/15876286/ucf-kicker-donald-de-la-haye-donaldo-deestroying-ncaa-compliance-youtube-td-loyalty

UCF “kickoff specialist” Donald De La Haye may be the new standard-bearer for athletes who won’t just roll over for the NCAA.

De La Haye recently launched from relative anonymity to prominence as a result of a developing NCAA compliance controversy. De La Haye operates a YouTube Channel (“Deestroying”) which has ads and from which De La Haye makes (presumably modest) revenue. UCF told him to stop profiting from his videos to avoid NCAA problems - NCAA bylaw 12.4.4 prohibits a student-athlete from establishing a business if the athlete uses his or her “name, photograph, appearance or athletics reputation […] to promote the business.”

In a video last week, De La Haye said he’d continue, pledging, “I’m not demonetizing, I refuse to.”

The videos on this channel do continue to bear ads.

And now there’s a new wrinkle. De La Haye has started a new YouTube channel (“TD LOYALTY”) with a collaborator. It currently hosts a single video, a comedy skit titled “YOU KNOW YOU’RE BLACK IF,” that features De La Haye. Unlike De La Haye’s Deestroying channel, TD Loyalty – at least so far – does not reference UCF, football, or De La Haye’s “athletics reputation.” There’s also scant mention of De La Haye’s name. The channel’s logo includes his first name in tiny font and the video references only De La Haye’s Twitter handle.

It’s true that De La Haye has advertised the new channel on his Twitter account (which states that he is an “UCF Student Athlete”). But overall these choices suggest that the channel may be designed to minimize the risk of a problem under bylaw 12.4.4.

Interestingly, the channel does not have any ads anyway. Or at least it doesn’t as of this writing.

It’s an odd choice to keep the prior channel monetized while not (or at least, not yet) monetizing the arguably more compliant new channel.

Regardless, the controversy has been excellent publicity for De La Haye. It’s not like the “kickoff specialist” was overflowing with star power before this.[1] TD Loyalty has 10,091 subscribers, an average of about 2,000 new subscribers per day it has existed. Its single video is now over 15,000 views.

Likewise, the following for Deestroying has grown. When we last addressed the controversy, Deestroying had 53,762 subscribers. The channel is now at 75,830. It’s been a serious boost to De La Haye’s profile.

[1] But I’d be remiss to not share the rare De La Haye highlight:

Compliance and the Kicker: UCF Asks Player to Stop Profiting From YouTube Channel

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/6/13/15789352/ncaa-ucf-kicker-youtube-channel-donald-de-la-haye-placekicker-controversy-bylaws

Compliance can be a pain.

And right now, it’s UCF placekicker Donald De La Haye who is feeling the sting.

De La Haye reports that UCF asked him to stop profiting from his YouTube channel in order to avoid compromising his amateur status in the eyes of the NCAA. UCF’s concern centers on NCAA bylaw 12.4.4: “A student-athlete may establish his or her own business, provided the student-athlete’s name, photograph, appearance or athletics reputation are not used to promote the business.”

De La Haye’s Youtube channel consists of self-produced videos. They range from autobiographical (“HOW I BECAME A D-1 FOOTBALL PLAYER”), to instructional (“HOW TO KICK AN ONSIDE”), to skits (“KICKERS BE LIKE”). He’s published 41 videos, and boasts 53,762 subscribers. The number of views for many of these are modest, but he has several videos with a couple hundred thousand views. De La Haye apparently makes a small profit from ad revenue.

De La Haye is as sympathetic an athlete in this position as there could be. He’s from Costa Rica and sends money to his family there who are “struggling” and have “tons of bills piling up and there’s no way for me to help.” “I thought I found a way,” De La Haye states in his most recent video (embedded above). And this isn’t an instance where an athlete is milking some obvious star power for his financial advantage. De La Haye is the kickoff specialist.[1] He’s not even kicking field goals in games (that’s the excellent Matthew Wright, of course). A lot of Knights fans probably couldn’t name him before the current controversy. So to the extent De La Haye is making some modest profit, it’s not coming because of who he is, but because he creates an entertaining product that people want to watch. Because he’s not trading on star power, I’d argue that this just isn’t the kind of problematic conduct the spirit of the rule is geared towards addressing. As De La Haye points out, “I’m not sitting here selling my autograph for money.”

It’s undeniable that De La Haye’s channel uses his “name, photograph, appearance or athletics reputation,” but I wouldn’t be ready to roll over and concede these are being used “to promote” De La Haye’s “business.” Promotion ought to mean something separate and apart from “the business” itself – otherwise, the words “to promote” in the bylaws would just be meaningless surplusage. If it’s the channel itself that’s “the business,” the bylaws seems like the prohibition should be triggered by use of “name, photograph, appearance or athletics reputation” somewhere other than the channel.

Not that I’d expect that rationale to satisfy the NCAA. It’s not at all a stretch to imagine a skeptical NCAA citing De La Haye’s use of his “name,” “appearance,” and “athletics reputation” in his videos as a violation of 12.4.4 in and of themselves. In De La Haye’s words: “they probably don’t let you take a shit in certain locations. Who knows? They got that many rules.”

UCF’s desire to avoid having the fight is understandable. The Knights have only recently completed a period of probation arising from football and basketball recruiting violations in 2012 (tangent: I love UCF for choosing to step into the ring and successfully appealing the postseason ban the NCAA imposed as part of the penalty, rather than simply laying down for the NCAA juggernaut). Add to this the fact that some of De La Haye’s videos clearly take place in UCF’s indoor practice facility and capture obvious UCF logos on camera, which would probably add to UCF’s concerns. Being conservative, and asking De La Haye to be conservative, makes sense from UCF’s perspective.

Though De La Haye frames the issue as continuing to make videos versus continuing to play football, he’s not actually that limited. De La Haye could also chose to stop making money from ads to avoid running afoul of 12.4.4 (I appreciate why this option is not palatable for him, of course). In his most recent video, De La Haye says he’s undecided.

As of this writing, De La Haye’s YouTube videos still have ads.

[1] De La Haye played in every game last season, kicking off 73 times for 4,441 yards.

Top 10 Rushing Seasons In G5 History

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/5/22/15664266/top-10-rushing-seasons-in-g5-history-matt-forte-fcs-division-i-aa-record-ranking-kevin-smith-ucf

Top 10 AAC Wins vs Power 5 Opponents

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/5/5/15515618/top-10-aac-wins-vs-power-5-opponents-houston-ucf-east-carolina-temple-oklahoma-penn-state-g5-p6

UCF Head Coach Scott Frost Gets Extension Through 2021, $300k Raise Per Year

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/5/4/15550934/ucf-head-coach-scott-frost-coaching-extension-contract-raise-ucf

UCF Head Coach Scott Frost has signed a contract extension through the 2021 season. He will now make $2 million annually, a raise of $300,000 per year. There’s also more money for assistant coaches now - the salary pool for them increased by $50,000 to $2.35 million in total.

Frost’s original contract contained an option for an extension following a 24-month review. His deal would have expired after the 2020 season.

UCF’s press release has all the typical nice sentiments from Frost . . .

"I am thrilled to have the opportunity to continue building a winning culture and a winning football program at UCF," Frost said. "Ashley and I feel like we have found a home in Orlando and with the UCF community. I look forward to an extended tenure of creating a football program that matches the vision of university leadership, including President Hitt and Danny White. I thank them for their confidence and bold vision. My staff and I will endeavor to continue making Knight fans proud. Charge On!"

. . . and from Athletic Director Danny White:

"I couldn't be more proud to work with Scott Frost as we build a nationally-competitive football program, representing UCF and our community across the country," White said. "In my view, the turnaround he led has been nothing short of phenomenal. To that end, we remain incredibly excited about the direction of our football program under Coach Frost's leadership. Successful programs are built around consistency and continuity. As such, I am absolutely thrilled that Scott sees the vast potential of UCF and is committed to our bright future. 'Orlando's Hometown Team' is growing quickly and it's going to be an awesome ride!"

It will of course be a huge surprise if Frost stays at UCF for the duration of his contract. In his first season at UCF, Frost engineered a turnaround from 2015’s winless slog to a bowl game and an ultimate 6-7 record. It was a tremendous turnaround, and probably every Knights fan’s favorite losing season. Frost reeled in an impressive first recruiting class in 2016 (given what he had to work with) with numerous players who contributed immediately. This year’s recruiting class was the best of any non-Power Five school. Future success appears likely and would make Frost an attractive target for other schools.

His buy-out is the lesser of: (1) one half of the guaranteed salary for the remaining term or (2) $3 million.