Monday, November 13, 2017
Know Your Foes: UCF’s Opponents After Week Ten
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/11/8/16625212/ucf-knights-university-of-central-florida-strength-of-schedule-sos-cfp-rankings-selection-committee
Kirby Hocutt and the College Football Playoff selection committee are intellectually lazy.
The UCF Knights remain ranked at #18 by the committee. Last week, there were four two loss teams ranked ahead of UCF. This week there are eight. Most egregiously, two loss Michigan State rose a whopping twelve spots in the rankings by handing Penn State its second loss.
As discussed over here by the mothership, UCF’s ranking is simply too low.
The
message the committee is sending with these rankings: we don’t care
about the margins by which teams beat their opponents and – for Power
Five programs – we don’t care all that much about how bad your losses
are, either.
Hocutt’s position is that UCF’s “strength of schedule is
the challenge in positioning them higher at this point in time.” Well,
what’s good for the Group of Five goose is not good for the Power Five
gander. Compare the Knights to fellow unbeaten team Wisconsin, which is
ranked #6:
With this backdrop, let’s delve into our weekly look at UCF’s strength of schedule.
FIU Panthers (6-2 Overall, 4-1 Conference USA)
Look – even UCF’s season opening cupcake is bowl
eligible. It’s only the third time in program history that the Panthers
have reached bowl eligibility (first time since 2011).
Not that the Panthers’ wins have been especially impressive, but their 14-7 win this week over UTSA might have been “the most miserable C-USA game of the season.”
Maryland Terrapins (4-5 Overall, 2-4 Big Ten)
It’s great that the Knights clobbered their only P5
opponent of the season. Unfortunately, it’s not one that is going to
look great on the resume. With a narrow road loss to Rutgers in what was a back-and-forth game, the Terps are back to a losing record.
It would be a shock if Maryland got to six wins, and its likely that the Terps won’t win another game. Their last three are against Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State.
#22 Memphis Tigers (8-1 Overall, 5-1 AAC)
The only G5 team other than UCF to be ranked by the selection committee, the Tigers moved up a single spot after blowing out Tulsa 41-14. Memphis quarterback Riley Ferguson
again was outstanding. His performance this year has been stellar, and
it’s a credit to the Knights’ defense that they limited him so much in
UCF’s win.
Memphis will likely win the AAC West, and beating an
excellent Memphis team in the AAC Championship is one of the few
potential resume boosts the Knights have left.
Cincinnati Bearcats (3-6 Overall, 1-4 AAC)
The Bearcats notched their first conference win of the year with their 17-16 victory over Tulane.
It could have easily gone the other way. The Green Wave attempted a
36-yard field goal with less than a minute to play and missed wide left.
Cincinnati’s path to bowl eligibility is actually
plausible. The Bearcats have games against Temple, ECU, and UConn
remaining (all teams which, like the Bearcats, have losing records).
Sure would be nice to have another bowl eligible team on the resume.
ECU Pirates (2-7 Overall, 1-4 AAC)
ECU never led and lost to Houston 52-27. They allowed the
Cougars to put up 21 points in the first quarter, while scoring none of
their own. The Pirates are irredeemably bad this year.
Navy Midshipmen (5-3 Overall, 3-3 AAC)
Navy suffered a surprising loss to Temple, which was well-prepared for the triple option and found improved offense with Frank Nutile at quarterback.
The way ahead is difficult for Navy. The Midshipmen have SMU, Notre Dame, Houston, and Army left on the schedule.
Austin Peay Governors (6-4 Overall, 5-1 Ohio Valley Conference)
Austin Peay has an outside shot
at making the FCS playoffs. Their only losses are to three FBS programs
(such losses are not taken into consideration when selecting teams for
the FCS playoffs) and perennial FCS power Jacksonville State.
This week, the Governors beat Tennessee Tech. At 1-8, Tennessee Tech is the worst team in the Ohio Valley Conference.
SMU Mustangs (6-3 Overall, 3-2 AAC)
SMU gave UCF its toughest challenge of the year, but the Knights prevailed 31-24 (we had our Underdog Dynasty staff photographer at this game, and the photo gallery is over here).
The Mustangs capitalized on UCF miscues, including a McKenzie Milton
pick six and an absurd number of missed tackles on the Mustang’s first
offensive play (which yielded a catch-and-run for a long touchdown).
UCF was still the better team. And it’s good to see that
the Knights can deal with adversity. Haven’t seen much of that so far
this season.
UConn Huskies (3-6 Overall, 2-4 AAC)
UConn suffered a 37-20 loss against USF. The Huskies have
one of the worst defenses in the country, and it showed against the
Bulls.
Quarterback Bryant Shirreffs suffered a concussion in the
fourth quarter and left the game. The Huskies will be without him for
their game against the Knights this week.
Temple Owls (4-5 Overall, 2-3 AAC)
Temple is certainly a more dangerous team with Nutile at
QB (and to think that earlier in the season I thought they had found a
steady hand in Logan Marchi).
The Owls are another team that could plausibly get bowl
eligible. Aside from their game against the Knights in two weeks, Temple
plays 2-8 Tulsa and Cincinnati.
USF Bulls (8-1 Overall, 5-1 AAC)
The Bulls are again not ranked by the committee. That’s
just plain wrong, but consistent with the lack of value the committee
attaches to AAC teams.
Quarterback Quinton Flowers had an epic performance with
516 total yards against UConn – a USF record. The Bulls offensive
playcalling was much improved. They’re a dangerous team, and one the
Knights will have to respect, even if the committee doesn’t.
UCF Hits a School Record 8-0 With Win Over SMU
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/11/5/16608216/ucf-knights-smu-mustangs-ponies-central-florida-2017-recap-mckenzie-milton-courtland-sutton-frost
UCF played sloppy throughout and still beat a team that had its best start in thirty years.
A trio of disasters hampered the Knights in the early
going. A failed fourth and short. Surrendering an enormous 86 yard yard
catch and run touchdown to SMU wide receiver James Proche. And a bad McKenzie Milton pick, where he threw behind Tre’Quan Smith.
The mistakes did not end there. Milton chucked a pick six
in the first half (he could have chucked another with 7:52 in the
fourth quarter, but it was dropped). And in the third quarter, TE Jordan Akins had a fumble in the end zone.
But that was all ultimately fine. The Knights got some
tremendously explosive plays out of the periodically inconsistent
offense. Adrian Killins, Jr. had two highlight touchdown runs, one for
thirty-four yards in the second quarter and one for sixty-four yards in
third. Killins is college football’s fastest player and supplies more
evidence in that regard every week or so.
Of course, we know that Twitter star @TJL_SUdad has pioneered “cheese and bread” as the Killins long touchdown run catch phrase. But this is a game that makes me believe that 1990s hyperviolent comic book duo Milk and Cheese might the more appropriate comparison.
(If I show you the meaningless comic book panel, I also have to show you the highlight, right? Right.)
And it’s not like it was all bad for Milton. Far from it.
Despite the turnovers and relative lack of accuracy, he rang up 412
passing yards, the most since Blake Bortles’s performance against Temple
in 2013 (you’ll remember that game as The Catch. right? RIGHT?!).
The UCF defense was . . . largely forgettable. The Knights suffered from some of the tackling problems on display against Cincinnati, Austin Peay, and (to a lesser extent) against ECU.
But throughout the game they made some big stops on third down. And
they weren’t without their own highlights. UCF Safety Kyle Gibson had a
crucial recovery of a fumble by a driving SMU in the end zone for a
touchback.
Ultimately, the play of the game came with a bit over five minutes left in the fourth quarter. SMU wide receiver Trey Quinn
dropped what should have been a certain fourth down catch on the UCF
side of the field (on paper, Quinn is the closest to a sure thing one
might expect - he’s the AAC’s leading receiver). It was immediately
followed by a Killins run that ripped into SMU territory.
But the Mustangs still had a chance. With about three
minutes left in the fourth, the Mustangs sacked Milton and knocked the
Knights out of field goal range. Down seven, the Ponies had the ball
deep on their side of the field with 2:55 seconds left.
. . . The drive ended with a turnover on downs.
But look, the Mustangs continue to look like a profoundly dangerous team. SMU quarterback Ben Hicks
was largely on point (yes, he seemed to panic at times, but still). He
ended up going 27/51 for 283 yards, a touchdown, and 54 yards rushing.
He did not turn the ball over. And his receivers often made clutch
catches. James Proche ended up with 7 receptions for 173 yards
(including the ridiculous early touchdown catch). Trey Quinn (despite the huge drop) caught eleven passes, while Courtland Sutton held his own against UCF’s stellar CB Mike Hughes and caught five pases for 46 yards. They were helped by the Mustang’s rushing attack - Xavier Jones ran 19 times for 84 yards and a touchdown, with Braeden West chipping in for 55 yards as well.
UCF now has the largest active streak of scoring thirty or more points per game. Hey, I know a bitter rival who wishes they owned that streak.
The Mustangs move on to a key divisional game against Navy. The Knights will have the UConn Huskies at home.
And hey! Ashley Frost didn’t give birth during the game.
Thank goodness. Every dad deserves to be there for the birth of his
child (mom has no choice but to be there. Sorry, mothers. I’ve seen it
go down, and you are the heroes).
Know Your Foes: UCF’s Opponents After Week Nine
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/11/1/16595436/ucf-knights-university-of-central-florida-sos-strength-of-schedule-scott-frost-mckenzie-milton
With the first College Football Playoff Rankings out, strength of schedule now “officially” matters. The #18 UCF Knights
have beaten opponents with a combined record of 30-25 (a .545 winning
percentage). UCF’s average margin of victory is 31 points. UCF has the
best scoring offense in the country (51 points per game) and, of the
five unbeaten teams in the FBS, only the Knights have won each game by
double digits.
And yet the undefeated Knights are ranked after four two-loss teams: Auburn (6-2), Iowa State (6-2), Mississippi State (6-2), and USC (7-2).
Its clear that tearing through AAC foes – even in UCF’s
rapacious manner -- isn’t worth all that much in the eyes of the
committee. And the Knights were unfortunately deprived of the
opportunity to play a second Power Five program this year when Hurricane
Irma prompted the cancellation of the Georgia Tech game.
If UCF wins out, then the Knights will play in a New Year’s Six Bowl. It would be extremely difficult,
however, for UCF to be ranked high enough to make the playoffs. Even if
UCF continues blowing out opponents, it would take absolute carnage
above them for the Knights to move up. Absolute. Carnage.
But please. Root for carnage.
And winning out.
The Knights’ past and future opponents, in schedule order:
FIU Panthers (5-2 Overall, 3-1 Conference USA)
The Panthers continue to have one of their best seasons
to date and are a serious contender to win the C-USA East Division. On
Saturday, FIU had its best offensive game of the year and hung 41 points
on Marshall on the way to an 11 point win. They’re quite good for a
C-USA team.
Maryland Terrapins (4-4 Overall, 2-3 Big Ten)
Maryland was down 14-0 against Indiana before surging back to win 42-39.
It sure would be nice if UCF’s only Power 5 victim this
year could get to bowl eligibility and at least a .500 record. Getting
to five wins is very possible with a game against Rutgers this weekend,
but to hit six, the Terps would need to upset one of Michigan, Michigan
State, and Penn State. Not as easy task for this Maryland team.
#23 Memphis Tigers (7-1 Overall, 4-1 AAC)
Memphis jumped to an early lead over Tulane and did not look back. The Tigers cruised to a 56-26 win.
There’s a very serious possibility of a UCF-Memphis
match-up in the AAC Championship game. The Tigers have a single
challenge remaining – SMU – and two far easier opponents (Tulsa and
ECU).
UCF and Memphis are the only Group of Five teams ranked in the initial College Football Playoff rankings.
Cincinnati Bearcats (2-6 Overall, 0-4 AAC)
The Bearcats were on a bye. Perhaps mercifully, given that they’ve yet to win a single conference game.
ECU Pirates (2-6 Overall, 1-3 AAC)
Also had a bye.
Navy Midshipmen (5-2 Overall, 3-2 AAC)
And yes, Navy had a bye.
Not a ton of AAC games this past week.
The Midshipmen resume play tomorrow against Temple.
Austin Peay Governors (5-4 Overall, 4-1 Ohio Valley Conference)
Many UCF fans seemed not to enjoy crushing Austin Peay as
much as they should have. The Knights hung a UCF record 73 points on
the Governors and won by 40 this week. It was also the most points
scored by any AAC team against any opponent this year.
The Knights’ defensive lapses – including missed tackles
and assignments – can certainly be fairly criticized. And no AAC program
wants to allow an FCS team to score 33 points. But remember that many
of those came in fluky ways. The Governors caught a tipped pass for a
touchdown. And caught a touchdown pass that UCF freshman DB Antwan Collier bobbled instead of intercepting. The Governors also had a lineman fall on one of their fumbles for a touchdown.
The Governors may be “only” an FCS team, but they’re a good FCS team. Their other losses are against Miami (OH) and Cincinnati, and FCS powerhouse Jacksonville State.
SMU Mustangs (6-2 Overall, 3-1 AAC)
SMU played a tighter than expected game against lowly
Tulsa. The Mustangs were down 28-34 before scoring ten points in the
fourth quarter to win. It’s the second week in a row that the Mustangs
have cut it close – on October 21, they needed overtime to eke out a
31-28 over Cincinnati.
Of course, SMU’s offense is dangerous (though the defense
is . . . not). Other than the War on I-4, this is the most challenging
hurdle remaining for the Knights.
UConn Huskies (3-5 Overall, 2-3 AAC)
UConn played the SEC’s Missouri Tigers and got crushed
by a score of 52-12. UConn did manage to score first with a safety when
a snap went over the head of Missouri’s punter and through the end
zone. But the Tigers responded with three touchdowns in the first
quarter, swiftly putting the game out of reach.
Very, very, little went right for the Huskies in this one.
Temple Owls (3-5 Overall, 1-3 AAC)
On a bye week.
Told you there weren’t a ton of AAC games this week.
USF Bulls (7-1 Overall, 4-1 AAC)
The dreams of two undefeated teams playing in a clash of the titans on Black Friday is now gone.
On Saturday, USF went up against their first good opponent of the year, the Houston Cougars. And the Bulls lost 28-24. If you want to traumatize your Bulls friends this week, ask them about 4th and 24.
Through Week Nine, USF has still only beaten one team without a losing record, and that’s FCS Stony Brook.
Our game on Black Friday remains risky and – with the
Bulls unlikely to lose again before then – a threat to winning the
division. Despite not playing up top their potential, the Bulls are a
talented team. They’re also hampered by bad playcalling on offense – a
fact that was obvious against Houston.
Speaking of bad offense, the Bulls snapped their record
24 game streak of scoring 30 or more points. UCF now holds the longest
active streak, with seven.
UCF Overcomes Navy for Best Start in Program History
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/21/16515014/ucf-knights-university-of-central-florida-navy-midshipmen-recap-abey-otis-anderson-adrian-killins-jr
The #20 UCF Knights (6-0, 4-0 American Athletic Conference) endured their first tough - and sloppy - game of the season but prevailed 31-21 over the Navy Midshipmen
(5-2, 3-2). The victory is hugely significant for the Knights, who now
have matched their win total from last year. And at 6-0, this is the
best ever start for UCF football. The Knights’ victory also wrecked a
streak for Navy, which had won 17 regular season home games in a row.
Though the Knights never trailed, the game was tight throughout.
In the first half, UCF blew numerous opportunities. The
Knights had a promising drive blunted by penalties. Then a drive stopped
on a failed attempt to convert fourth and one in the red zone. And
later, when UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton appeared to tweak his hamstring, Noah Vedral came on briefly; he promptly botched a snap to scuttle good field position. Matthew Wright also missed a 45-yard field goal attempt to close out the half.
The Knights suffered mistakes in the second half as well.
The Knights surrendered several long passes to the Midshipmen,
including a 75 yard touchdown pass by Zach Abey to Malcom Perry. And McKenzie Milton threw an interception (only his third of the year) in the fourth quarter.
Though far from its usual sharp performance, the UCF
offense still accumulated 483 yards. This was a game in which UCF’s
speedy young players (and the offensive line, which made huge holes for
them) shined. Sophomore Adrian Killins Jr.
rushed for 122 yards (his new career high) and two touchdowns. One of
those touchdowns was a 79 yard run to immediately answer a Navy TD that
had knotted the game at 14-14 early in the second half. Freshman Otis
Anderson also had a great game. With a few minutes left in the game and
UCF only up three, Anderson had a clutch catch and run for a key first
down. Two plays later, he put the Knights up 31-21:
Anderson also added a pair of catches for 47 yards.
Nominally a wide receiver, Anderson continues to have success whether
used in that role or as a running back.
Much
credit for this win belongs to the Knights defense. Linebacker Pat
Jasinski played fiercely throughout, ending with a career high fourteen
total tackles. Redshirt Freshman cornerback Brandon Moore – usually the weakest link in the Knights’ secondary – had a tremendous game. He tipped a ball that safety Kyle Gibson then intercepted. Later, with the Midshipmen driving, Moore nailed Darryl Bonner on the pitch, forcing and recovering a fumble. Moore also ended Navy’s last drive by picking off a Garret Lewis pass (Lewis replaced Abey at quarterback after a hard hit dazed Abey in the third quarter).
The ten point win is UCF’s smallest margin of victory so far this year (UCF’s previous “low” was a 27 point win over Memphis).
But this should not alarm Knights fans in the least. Instead, today’s
result demonstrates that UCF can beat quality opponent even when the
Knights aren’t playing their best game. Coupled with their win over
Memphis several weeks ago, UCF has now beaten the two best teams in the
AAC West.
UCF gets a bit of a breather, with FCS program Austin
Peay coming to Orlando next Saturday. The Knights will also get a boost
from the return of wide receiver Tristan Payton and cornerback Nevelle Clarke, who have now finished serving a six game suspension for failed drug tests.
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