WR Breshad Perriman Unleashes Speed at UCF Pro Day, Improves Draft Stock

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/3/25/8291591/wr-breshad-perriman-unleashes-speed-at-ucf-pro-day-improves

A few days ago, I wrote our 2015 NFL Draft profile of early entrant Breshad Perriman. Here's where I landed then:

Unfortunately for Perriman, he missed the combine with a hamstring injury. It’s too bad because he could have benefited with a strong performance given the concerns some have articulated about his drops. We’ll how he does working out at UCF on March 25. It ought to be illuminating and may perhaps establish him as a first round pick in the eyes of NFL scouts. Having watched him closely for three years, I'm inclined to think that he has the talent to be drafted that early -- we will see how teams' needs stack up.

Then came UCF's Pro Day. And, uh, things continue to look OK for Perriman:

A few days ago, I wrote our 2015 NFL Draft profile of early entrant Breshad Perriman. Here's where I landed then:

Unfortunately for Perriman, he missed the combine with a hamstring injury. It’s too bad because he could have benefited with a strong performance given the concerns some have articulated about his drops. We’ll how he does working out at UCF on March 25. It ought to be illuminating and may perhaps establish him as a first round pick in the eyes of NFL scouts. Having watched him closely for three years, I'm inclined to think that he has the talent to be drafted that early -- we will see how teams' needs stack up.

Then came UCF's Pro Day. And, uh, things continue to look OK for Perriman

...

The football end of the Twitterverse started exploding with bullish estimates of just how fast Perriman ran that 40. And by any of those estimates, Perriman was extremely fast. UCF estimated estimated his 40-yard dash time between 4.22 and 4.27 seconds.  Yahoo's Eric Edholm cautiously reported a text from a "via a trusted NFL scout,"indicating that the scout

[...] wrote that UCF wide receiver Breshad Perriman just ran a 4.15-second 40-yard dash at his pro day on Wednesday.

Not a misprint. Four-one-five. That's Bo Jackson/Deion Sanders speed if true.

And those are the key words: if true. We suspect that the time was not accurate, that his finger clicked the stopwatch a tenth of a second slow, with UCF not apparently having electronic timing at their facility.

Timing the (above) Vine of Perriman's 40 yard dash electronically, Edholm landed at 4.22 seconds (consistent with the fast side of UCF's report).

Perriman's agent Drew Rosenhaus initially put Perriman's time at 4.26, before noting that several teams had timed him even faster:

But let's be skeptics for a moment. And let's assume that the most 'true' time is the slowest end of the reported estimates: 4.27 seconds. That's still faster than the quickest 40 yard dash time from this year's NFL Combine -- UAB WR J.J. Nelson ran his 40 in 4.28 seconds (by the way, we've got a draft preview of Nelson over here). I guess there's a reason why Perriman is happy this afternoon:

You'll still see Perriman's hands questioned as we get closer to the draft (though I feel compelled to point out that Holman never really mustered up the ability to throw a pass with touch and so wasn't usually doing Perriman any favors here). But his performance at UCF's pro day ought to make his stock rise. For my part, I'm more solidified in my view that he ought to be drafted in the first round.

2015 NFL Draft Player Profile: UCF WR Breshad Perriman

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/3/22/8168517/2015-nfl-draft-player-profile-ucf-wr-breshad-perriman

Pretty much guaranteed to be one of any Knights fan's favorite recent players, early NFL draft entrant Breshad Perriman is a lock to be the first UCF Knight drafted this year.

Let's put this out front: Perriman cemented his place as a UCF hero with his 51 yard touchdown catch on "O Holy Knight" to beat ECU and win a share of the AAC title:

(Never get tired of finding reasons to squeezing that highlight into posts). Of course, that play is probably more about the ECU players being terribly out of position than Perriman being spectacular. But his statistics this year speak for themselves. Perriman led the Knights in every receiving category:  receptions (50), yards (1044), yards per catch (20.9), and touchdowns (9).

He clearly stood out among a Knights receiving corps with other talented players. And it wasn't even really close - the next leading receiver was Josh Reese with 39 receptions for 552 yards and 6 touchdowns. In fact, Perriman was the first UCF receiver with at least 1,000 yards in a season since Mike Sims-Walker in 2006 (who went on to his own NFL career with the Jacksonville Jaguars).

Perriman was also a critical piece of the Knights 2013 Fiesta Bowl winning campaign (39 receptions, 811 yards, 4 touchdowns).  And he contributed as Freshman during UCF's final season in Conference USA (26 receptions, 388 yards, 3 touchdowns). His UCF career was filled with highlights  -

Not so bad for a two star recruit, eh?

Pros:

There's a lot that the NFL analysts like about Perriman. The stats obviously show that he can play. And he's a good size at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds. As you'll see mentioned in every draft preview article about Perriman, he's the son of former NFL wide receiver Brett Perriman (best known for his time with the Detroit Lions). So for what it's worth, he gets to check off the 'NFL lineage' box. Mel Kiper is high on Breshad Perriman, and describes him as "a guy who can both stretch defenses vertically and also make plays over the middle and in traffic."  Pre-combine, Kiper projected him at number 15 to the 49ers. Then Kiper saw him going to Seattle. Now, trades have made the landscape more uncertain.

NFL Network Analyst Mike Maycock had this to say:

I put the Perriman tape on about three weeks ago and almost fell over. [inaudible] People tell me that he doesn't have good hands and boy do I disagree with that even though he's got drops than he should. So there's kind of a way to interpret that, a wide receiver that has too many drops should have bad hands, right? Well, I look at his hands and say he makes acrobatic catches, he makes high point catches, he makes contested catches, however every once in a while he drops an easy ball. But I think he's a natural hands catcher. I think he's got height and weight, I think he runs good routes...To me, he looks like a first round wide receiver.

Cons:

You’ll hear a lot about this supposed drop problem that Maycock refers to. We here at UD mentioned it in our NFL Combine 2015: The Underdogs preview. Pro Football Focus tags him with a drop rate of 13% last season. I tend to view this criticism as overblown. While I’ll agree that Perriman has a had more drops than you want to see, at least some of this was due to QB Justin Holman’s lack of touch on passes – every ball was thrown like it needed to go through a brick wall. It didn’t do Perriman any favors.

Conclusion:

Unfortunately for Perriman, he missed the combine with a hamstring injury. It’s too bad because he could have benefited with a strong performance given the concerns some have articulated about his drops. We’ll how he does working out at UCF on March 25. It ought to be illuminating and may perhaps establish him as a first round pick in the eyes of NFL scouts. Having watched him closely for three years, I'm inclined to think that he has the talent to be drafted that early -- we will see how teams' needs stack up.

UCF Offseason Themes: The "Good Kind" of Problem

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/3/18/8246881/ucf-offseason-themes-the-good-kind-of-problem

I love the Knights, but I don't think I quite get to call myself a "long time" UCF fan. I've set my personal arbitrary marker for what qualifies as a "long time" fan at the Daunte Culpepper era. (If you watched Culpepper play in a Golden Knights jersey, congratulations! One guy on the internet thinks that qualifies you as a "long time" UCF fan and is envious of you). Still, I'm a few years past the decade mark and remember when we had head coaches not named O'Leary (Kruczek! Gooch as interim!). And that's been plenty of time to observe the trajectory of the program. I've got the valleys ("0 and 11 O'Leary" in 2004) and peaks (2013's Fiesta Bowl win) in there.

All of this is my roundabout way of saying that I've never seen a time when players leaving early for the NFL draft was such a potential loss to the team. This year saw Junior WR Breshad Perriman and Redshirt Sophomore CB Jacoby Glenn enter the draft. And of course last year, Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson left school early (a side note: how dangerous would the 2014 team have been with Bortles and Johnson as the offensive stars?). By the way, that's more NFL draft early entrants in two back-to-back years than in the remainder of program history[1].

It's obvious that the 2015 team would have been better with Perriman and Glenn. This past season, Perriman led the Knights in receptions (50), yards (1044), yards per catch (20.9), and touchdowns (9), standing out above the rest of the most talented WR corps UCF has ever had. Perriman became the first UCF WR with 1,000 yards receiving since Mike Sims-Walker in 2006.[2] Glenn had his own stellar season en route to being recognized as a second team AP All-American (and if you like first "x" since "y" factoids, how does UCF's first player named to an AP All-American team since Kevin Smith in 2007?). Glenn ended the regular season ranked third in the country in interceptions and passes defended. He was also named the AAC's Co-Defensive Player of the Year.

Perriman and Glenn will be missed this upcoming season, no doubt. The loss here is compounded by key players graduating from their units. Gone now are WRs J.J. Worton (of "The Catch" fame), Rannell Hall, Joshua Reese, and Jackie Williams.[3] Ditto key players from the secondary -- Clayton Geathers, Brandon Alexander, and Jordan Ozerities. The turnover of so many starters presents an obvious problem.

So why do I see this as the "good kind" of problem? I look at this as a sign of the growth of the program and its success on the field. UCF has identified, recruited, and developed players who have a viable shot at the NFL - and who are good enough to make the jump early. In Perriman's case, it may even mean a chance at being drafted in the first round (though he's certainly no worse than a day two selection in my mind). When you're having success as a program, players will have the opportunity to take advantage of it. I view this as a developmental mark for the Knights.

The question going forward, of course, is how fast UCF can reload.

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[1] Your other early entrants? WR Charles Lee, RB Kevin Smith, CB Josh Robinson.

[2] Check back later this month for an Underdog Dynasty 2015 NFL Draft Profile on Perriman, where I'll be singing his praises some more.

[3] Who never had the impact I was so sure he would after transferring from UAB. But still.

UCF Knights 2015 Football Schedule Set & Early Reactions

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/2/20/8077119/ucf-knights-2015-football-schedule-set-early-reactions

With the addition of an early season cupcake opponent at home (the Furman Paladins), UCF's 2015 football season is now set. Here's how it shapes up:

Date	Opponent	Home or Away
Sept. 5	FIU	Home
Sept. 12	Stanford	Away
Sept. 19	Furman	Home (Family Weekend)
Sept. 26	South Carolina	Away
Oct. 3	Tulane	Away
Oct. 10	UConn	Home
Oct. 17	Temple	Away
Oct. 24	Houston	Home (Homecoming)
Oct. 31	Cincinnati	Away
Nov. 7	Tulsa	Away
Nov. 19	ECU	Home
Nov. 27	USF	Home

Oh, we've got divisions and an AAC championship game now. The addition of Navy to the conference for the 2015 season means the AAC has enough teams to split into divisions and play a conference championship game. Our opponents from the western division this year are Houston, Tulsa, and Tulane. It's particularly great to see Houston among them, since the Knights and the Cougars have some exciting recent history: the Knights won at home in 2013 by breaking up a pass on fourth and goal and in 2014 after forcing Houston's fumble through the end zone for a touchback. On the basketball court, things have also gone the Knights' way in close games against Houston recently. A few days ago, the Knights edged the Cougars 56-54 thanks to BJ Taylor's layup with 2.8 seconds left. And in January, the Knights won 79-78 in overtime when Brandon Goodwin hit a three pointer as time was winding down. Are these the seeds of an inter-divisional rivalry?

The prospect of a championship game is especially exciting after last year's season ended with the three co-champions: UCF, Cincinnati, and Memphis. While it's difficult to imagine that a Knights team with so much turnover (the entire starting secondary and key playmakers on defense, our best group of WRs ever) can win it, the opportunity is there. And of course having a championship game does a lot to increase conference legitimacy (Big 12, I'm looking at you).

No marquee home games, but what a year for road trips. As we look at the schedule now, nothing jumps out as a flashy game at home. Both games in which UCF has an opportunity to make a statement against a P5 school are on the road - Stanford and South Carolina. The good news is that both are winnable games, especially with the Spurrier era seeming to be in wind-down mode at South Carolina. Knights fans are of course aching for an opportunity for revenge after the 28-25 loss to the Gamecocks at home en route to an otherwise undefeated season in 2013.

We also get the long-awaited match-up against Cincinnati, which we would have loved to see last year (three co-champions. Sigh.) or in 2013. The game is in Cincinnati's new stadium. And speaking of away games at new (well, one year old) stadiums, 2015 provides an opportunity for fans to travel to New Orleans for the game against Tulane at Yulman. With Tulane in the western division of the AAC, that's an excuse to visit a fun city that ought not to come around all that often.

But how do we feel about the cupcakes? The home game against FIU makes me happy. When you schedule weak non-conference opponents, they at least ought to be weak in-state conference opponents.

Furman, of course, is an out-of-sate cupcake. It's a small liberal arts school in South Carolina. This is the we-couldn't-find-another-P5-opponent-to-play-us-and-now-it's-late-and-we're-scrambling choice. It turns out that Furman University and schedule space free up as a result of a late developing problems - South Carolina State's budget crisis, temporary closure, and suspension of athletics programs. It's not an exciting opponent, but heck they played the Gators pretty close in 2011. And there's at least a little history between the Knights and the Paladins: the schools last played back in 1984, a time when UCF was still a Div II program.

But maybe the best part of scheduling FIU and Furman is that they break up the tough early non-conference games against Stanford and South Carolina.

Fewer weekday games: on balance, a good thing? Fans who have long complained about the profusion of weekday games now get their wish. UCF plays a Thursday night game against ECU, and on Black Friday against rival USF. To be sure, Saturday games are better attended and much easier for out of town fans to attend.

But George O'Leary is now unhappy, as the Orlando Sentinel's Shannon Owens-Green reports:

Saturday games are great if they're gonna be on national television, but you can't beat national television on Thursday or Friday night . . . You're talking about exposure, that's what you're looking to get for our program that we're in, not in the Power 5. You want to get that national exposure. I have a call to the conference about it, why we were basically left out of it.

. . . I want Thursday night games for exposure and it just seemed odd to me when I got the schedule we play 10 straight without an ESPN game. We're the defending conference champions and there's games that could easily have been ESPN games. You got Cincinnati, Houston. I don't know what happened there.

I'll agree that the loss of opportunities for national exposure hurts (how great was everyone around the country seeing "O Holy Knight"?). But on the whole, this is a good change for the fan base.

Knights fans, how do you feel about the 2015 schedule?

UCF and FAU Agree to Home-and-Home Series

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/1/28/7928309/ucf-and-fau-agree-to-home-and-home-series

As reported by Owl Access, UCF and FAU have agreed to a home-and-home series for 2018 and 2019. The Owls come to Bright House Networks Stadium in 2018 and the Knights will reciprocate with a trip to Boca in 2019.

It's a solid scheduling choice for UCF despite not being a splashy one. Given the nature of our conference, I'd like see the Knights schedule aggressively against Power Five opponents when possible. But if you're going to schedule what ought to be a cupcake, it should be an in-state cupcake.[1] So bring on your FIU,[2] your Bethune Cookman, your FAMU, and (now) your FAU. Scheduling these games against in-state foes adds more fan interest and excitement. And the 2019 game in Boca provides an opportunity for UCF's large south Florida alumni base to watch the Knights without trekking to Orlando.

There's not much football history between UCF and FAU. In 2003, the Knights won 33-29, largely on the strength of QB Ryan Schneider's arm.  Schneider threw for three touchdowns and nearly 500 yards. Knights fans may remember the 2003 team for featuring current NFL players Brandon Marshall and Matt Prater.

The Knights out-of-conference schedule for 2019 currently includes a game at home versus Stanford. FAU is the only 2018 out-of-conference opponent currently scheduled.

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[1] And I'll have to continue to say "ought to" until the frustration and indignity of seeing the Golden Panthers of FIU beat Jeff Godfrey-led UCF in 2011 fades a bit from my mind.

[2] See footnote 1. Sigh.

UCF Knights Season Recap: Life on the Edge (Again)

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/1/24/7460633/ucf-knights-looking-back-at-the-2014-season

GUILDENSTERN: Happy, in that we are not over-happy; On fortune's cap we are not the very button.

HAMLET: Nor the soles of her shoes?

ROSENCRANTZ: Neither, my lord.

- Hamlet, Act 2, Scene 2.

Now that we have some distance between us and the end of the 2014 season, it's time to look back and take stock. For many, it's hard to know how to feel - sure, the Knights "won" the American Athletic Conference. And it's better to win the conference than to lose it (especially in ridiculously dramatic fashion). But "American Athletic Conference Champion" is an achievement shared with Memphis and Cincinnati. And it's just not quite the same when 27% of your conference "wins" it.

Part of the trouble is that there's an inevitable letdown following your best season in school history.  The 2013 season of course culminated in a Fiesta Bowl win over heavy-favorite and Big 12 Champion Baylor. Along the way, the Knights squeaked out games in exciting, uncanny fashion. There was "The Catch" by J.J. Worton. Breaking up a pass on fourth and goal against Houston. Beating #8 Louisville with a Bortles to Godfrey pass with less than 30 seconds left. The Memphis game, in which Will Stanback forced a fumble on a kickoff return - which was recovered for a touchdown - and Terrance Plummer picked off a pass in the endzone to seal the game.

This season the Knights continued to live on the edge, though fortune wasn't always with them. The regular season started with a heart-breaking loss to Penn State decided on a last-second field goal. It ended with "O Holy Knight," and the AAC-clinching play I'll never tire of finding reasons to include in posts:

In between, the Knights gutted out a victory in OT against BYU. And they locked up a win against Houston by forcing a fumble through the end zone for a touchback (at 1:30):

The game-saving play was made by Brandon Alexander, who had sealed the Houston game in 2013 by breaking up Houston’s pass on fourth and goal.

Luck wasn’t the only thing inconsistent for UCF this year. While Justin Holman showed tremendous promise at QB, and had moments of stellar play, he also made mistakes. He threw nearly every ball as if it had to go through a brick wall. And he threw four interceptions in UCF’s sole AAC conference loss (ever) against UConn.

Holman was not helped out by a revolving door on the offensive line. The Knights had to try numerous different combinations of players on OL, and none of them provided really solid protection. Though disappointing, at least none of this was a surprise – we knew it would be hard to replace nearly the entire OL, and even though Holman exceeded expectations (on balance, at least), Blake Bortles is a hard act to follow.

The surprise disappointment was at running back, where the Knights never found meaningful success. William Stanback tantalized us last year, in relief of Storm Johnson:

I thought Stanback would be a star once the training wheels came off this year. Of course, I was wrong, wrong, wrong. He missed time for injuries, played hobbled quite a bit, and never really got going this season. Here again, the OL didn’t do anyone any favors.

Not surprisingly, the wide receivers were excellent all year. Between this season and last year’s Fiesta Bowl-winning campaign, J.J. Worton, Rannell Hall, and Breshad Perriman, and Josh Reese ought to be considered the best wide receiving corps in UCF history.

The UCF defense was also great, and turned in a statistically-dominant performance. At the end of the year, UCF ranked #5 in total defense, #6 in rushing defense, and #9 in scoring defense. And they completely blanked rival USF, inflicting the Bulls’ first home shut-out their program’s history.

All of this was enough to take the Knights to a final record of 9-4 (after failing to complete a rally against NC State in the St. Pete Bowl) and a share of the AAC Conference title. It wasn’t a season for the ages, but UCF fans can feel satisfied. UCF is finally consistently winning or competing for conference championships and playing in bowl games. The Knights have now won nine or more games in four of the last five seasons. And when you’re a program with aspirations to grow, that’s the kind of consistent success you need.

UCF Shuffles Coaching Staff in Wake of Taaffe Retirement, Departures

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/1/12/7531459/ucf-shuffles-coaching-staff-in-wake-of-taaffe-retirement-departures

Knights fans have seen substantial coaching changes in the last few weeks. First, defensive coordinator Tyson Summers left for the same position at Colorado State under new head coach Mike Bobo. Next, defensive backs coach Kirk Callahan left for UF to join John McElwain's staff. Now, offensive coordinator Charlie Taaffe is retiring. The result is some shuffling of existing UCF coaching staff and several new hires.

Charlie Taaffe will always be appreciated by UCF fans for vitalizing an offensive that had been conservative,  predictable, and downright bad before he came on board.  So long, Charlie, and thanks for the memories:

Brent Key now moves into the spot vacated by Taaffe and will also coach the running backs. Earlier this year, Key was rumored to be the next choice for Head Coach in the event of George O'Leary's retirement. The move to offensive coordinator would seem to support the belief that he is heir apparent to  O'Leary.

Key has been something of a do-everything coach for UCF, where he has spent virtually his entire career -- his UCF bio currently identifies him as "Asst. Head Coach of Offense/OL Coach/Recruiting Coordinator." Continuity can often be a good thing: ask the Oregon Ducks and Mark Helfrich (and Chip Kelly, and Mike Belotti). But Key's elevation should still give UCF fans some pause: Key has never before been an Offensive Coordinator. He did, however, "[shadow] Taaffe in the booth for the last half of the season." 

I'm reminded of the expression, "To damn with faint praise."

On the other side of the ball, Chuck Bresnahan replaces Tyson Summers as defensive coordinator. It's a move which can't help but cause Knights fans to cringe. Bresnahan is the recently-fired former defensive coordinator for rival USF.  USF's hiring of Bresnahan two years ago left our colleagues at Voodoo Five puzzled, and it's a hire which looks even worse for the Knights now (though to be sure, USF's bumbling on offense didn't do much to relieve the pressure on the defense).

While Bresnahan brings NFL coaching experience, his defenses weren't particularly good. Perhaps worse for the Knights, it's hard to see Bresnahan -- who hadn't coached at the college level for twenty years until USF hired him -- doing much to fill the recruiting void left by the departures of Summers and Callahan.

The other hires and staff changes provoke less of a reaction. Andrew Thacker was hired to coach safeties. The defensive backs coach will be Travis Fisher. Allen Mogridge replaces Key as offensive line coach and recruiting coordinator. Director of player personnel Keegan Kennedy will now coach tight ends and H-backs and will in turn be replaced by Mike Buscemi. Danny Barrett will now coach QBs instead of RBs. Other than O'Leary, only two coaches remain in the same posts - Sean Beckton (wide receivers coach) and Lorenzo Constantini (defensive line coach).