Thursday, December 3, 2015

Getting to Know New UCF Head Coach Scott Frost: Five Questions with Addicted to Quack

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/12/3/9837826/getting-to-know-new-ucf-head-coach-scott-frost-five-questions-with

UCF fans are just beginning to get to know new head coach Scott Frost, who comes to the Knights from Oregon where he was extremely successful as the offensive coordinator.
We got together with Joel Gunderson (follow him -- @jgundy85) at the elegantly-named Ducks blog Addicted to Quack to discuss Frost and what Knights fans should expect from him.
1. UCF fans are eager to see someone who can win in-state recruiting battles. How do you view Frost as a recruiter generally? Did he bring in any Florida recruits?
JG: Despite being as far away, geographically, as you can be, Frost actually landed one of the best players out of Florida two years ago - Charles Nelson. Our quarterback, Vernon Adams, has clearly been the MVP - but the best player on the roster, without a doubt, is Nelson. And Frost was the main guy who recruited him.
Part of the reason Frost was so highly regarded as a potential head coach is that players love him. He's young enough to still have cache from his playing days; he's wise enough, having been taught by some of the brightest minds the game has; and he flat-out know how to talk to kids. He was coaching in one of the least fertile recruiting grounds in the country, and still found talent every year. He'll do just fine in Florida. All he needs to run the offense successfully is speed...you guys have that.
2. Obviously Oregon has been very successful offensively with Frost as the OC. How much of that success do you attribute to his influence?
JG: This is the hard question, one which Oregon fans are hotly debating right now. There's still a Chip Kelly-sized cloud hanging over the program here. What that has created is confusion over what the offense is, and whose it is. Clearly, Frost has influenced it. But what has been done - and this is a credit to him - is that the offense has evolved to fit the personnel. When Frost was the receivers coach, and we didn't have a strong quarterback, the offense was run, run, run. When we had a guy by the name of Marcus Mariota at the helm, the playbook was shifted to fit his skills. To say it's all Frost would be misleading, because Oregon a school that takes a little bit from every coach.
Now, one thing to watch for - and I don't want to cause panic - is the trick plays. This season - especially the past two months - there was a huge increase in the amount of trick plays that Oregon ran - and not one of them worked. In fact, in our triple-overtime win at Arizona State, it should have cost us the game. But because Oregon is so tight-lipped, we never got true explanations for why these plays were being called. Boredom? Necessity? We don't know. It didn't feel like Mark Helfrich thing to do, which leaves Frost as the guy in question.
3. It seems at times frost's play calling puzzled Oregon fans. Any specific examples of that come to your mind? Is that a fair concern, do you think?
JG: See above. I mean, it's hard to be critical....Oregon set numerous records with Frost in charge, and even when times were "bad" (by insanely-spoiled Duck fans) the offense was still better than 90% of the country.
Frost thrives when he gets two things: receivers who are willing to block downfield (if that doesn't happen, the offense shuts down); and a quarterback who has the threat to run. He doesn't need a quarterback with 4.4 speed; but if the threat of the run is there, everything opens up.
Frost's play-calling was, really, only in question the second half of this past season. If it was in question before that, it was from a small group who expects Oregon to score on every possession. It's football - other teams are going to stop you from time-to-time. Overall, Frost absolutely knows what he is doing. Did he make some questionable calls this year? Yes. Overall, is it anything to worry about? Not at all.
4. There's always a little uncertainty surrounding a first time head coach. Do you think Frost is ready?
JG: Yes - and I'm going to preface that by saying he's ready for a school like UCF (don't take that the wrong way, and let me explain).
It's no secret that someday, Frost will end up back at Nebraska. He won a title there; he's revered as a hero; and their current coach, Mike Riley (who we all know well around these parts) won't make it long. Frost will be in Lincoln someday. But he's not ready now.
Why is UCF perfect for him? Simple: expectations. UCF has the potential to be a loaded squad, but coming off a 0-12 season, expectations are non-existent. If Frost can come, and in, say, two seasons, turn it around - not unrealistic at all - he'll not only have the experience, but he'll have the respect as a head coach.
Earlier this season, he had a (mini) lash out towards fans. He (correctly) pointed out that most fans who were being critical couldn't even name all 11 positions on the field, and therefore had no reason to be critical. While many agreed with him, that's not something you can do if you're a head coach. Now, he can learn from it.
5. Overall: how'd we do with this hire?
JG: I think it's a home run, honestly. Frost is a star in the making; personality, innovation, energy...he has everything you need to turn around a program. He won't be there long - and that's a good thing for everyone involved. He's going to inject life into the program that wasn't there, even when Blake Bortles was carving up everyone in his path. He has that kind of energy.
His offensive philosophies will fit perfectly with the speed he'll have: open spaces equal lots of points.
In a couple seasons, he'll be the hottest name in the country. When that happens, UCF will be on the map as a destination spot. It's a win-win.

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Analyzing UCF's Hire of Scott Frost

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/12/2/9832682/analyzing-ucfs-hire-of-scott-frost


After a bit of false start, it turns out that Oregon Ducks Offensive Coordinator Scott Frost is in at UCF.
It was widely reported a few days ago that Bowling Green Head Coach Dino Babers was expected to take the job in Orlando (including by the SB Nation Mothership. Uh. Our crytstal ball was murky). Babers denied the reports, leading some to speculate that it was a matter of timing (Babers' buy-out dropped by $100k on December 1, and Bowling Green is playing in the MAC Championship game).
All of this ended up being wrong, of course.
Tuesday morning, the news broke that Frost was hired to steer the Knights out of the colossal wreck that the George O'Leary era had ended in. The hire comes as a surprise: Frost was not among the names reportedly interviewed this past weekend, nor the topic of much speculation (though he was linked to other head coaching gigs, including at Syracuse and Iowa State).
Frost's resume is pretty solid, though brief. He was the starting quarterback on Nebraska's 1997 national title team, spent six years in the NFL, and transitioned into coaching in 2002. He spent time as a graduate assistant at his alma mater and then at Kansas State. In 2007, Frost became the linebackers coach at Northern Iowa and then added "co-defensive coordinator" duties the next year. Both years, Northern Iowa made it deep into the playoffs.
The last six years for Frost were spent coaching at Oregon - three of them as the wide receivers coach during the Chip Kelly era. With Mark Helfrich at the helm, Frost served as the offensive coordinator since 2013.
It's a hire about which Knights fans can be cautiously optimistic. UCF just finished slogging through a winless season, hampered by a defense that was statistically the worst of any FBS program. With Frost, the Ducks ranked sixth this year. In forty games with Frost as the offensive coordinator, Oregon averaged 553 yards per game and 44.8 points per game. One hopes that the track record of excellence on offense will continue at UCF.
Hiring Frost is also a recognition of UCF's desire to restore interest in a program that turned off many fans this year with play that was not merely disastrous but also dreadfully boring. A few days before the announcement, UCF President John Hitt told the Orlando Sentinel:
If you have to lose, would you rather lose 45-44 or 10-9 - and the answer is that people want to see some points scored. Why do you think so many people are running the Baylor-type spread that scores a lot of points? [. . .] ESPN stands for Entertainment and Sports Programming Network. The first word is ‘entertainment' and we're competing for the entertainment dollar with a lot of young people and young families.
For what it's worth, the fun factor is an aspect of this hire that UCF is trying hard to embrace. UCF's social media has been filled with images of Frost looking young (as he is, at 40) and excited. It's a stark contrast to George O'Leary's first year on campus when the UCF sports marketing material emphasized that he was tough, cantankerous, and, for lack of a better word, "shouty."
In many ways, the Frost hire represents an about face from the philosophy that supported the O'Leary hire over a decade ago. O'Leary was a veteran head coach who found his way to UCF after a bit of a disgrace - he was cut loose by Notre Dame after only days on the job for having made false statements on his resume.
Frost is no fall from grace story, but a coach whose star is ascendant now on his first head coaching stop. Unlike O'Leary, who became wedded to UCF, Frost is a coach who might be reasonably expected to move on to a more prominent job if he finds success at UCF. And while O'Leary was known for tough defenses and old school ethos, Frost is progressive in his philosophy on offense.
Plus he's got that whole we're-Oregon-and-we're-exciting-on-offense halo around him (the football-coach equivalent of "new car smell").
There are reasons for Knights fans to temper their optimism, however. Frost's play-calling at times prompted head-scratching at Oregon (though, arguably, this was just the result of a young coordinator still finding his groove). The lack of an obvious connection to the state of Florida is also not happy news for a program eager to start winning some meaningful, in-state recruiting battles. And Frost has no track record as a head coach, not at any level. So while it's not the obvious home run hire (the way that fellow AAC member Houston's pick-up of Tom Herman was last year), there's tremendous possible upside here.
And at least Knights fans can begin to move on after a nightmare season and look again towards the future.

UCF Knights vs. USF Bulls Recap: Bulls Triumph 44-3

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/11/26/9805678/ucf-knights-vs-usf-bulls-recap-bulls-triumph-44-3

It was bad for the Knights. But, mercifully,  the slog to 0-and-12 reached its end as USF crushed UCF in a mostly empty stadium on Thanksgiving night.
When we previewed the game, we asked whether who would have more yards: USF's Marlon Mack (the overwhelming favorite), USF's Quinton Flowers (who got a substantial number of votes) or the entire UCF offense (sigh). It turns out that the smart money was on Quinton Flowers, who ended with 264 total yards (and that was with Steven Bench coming in during garbage time). UCF mustered a mere 203.
As was the case last week against ECU, UCF opened with a decent drive that proved to be about the only functional drive of the The Bulls closed out their season with a huge win over rival UCF, capping their second half surge. Surprising no one, the Knights staggered to the end of their winless season. night. QB Justin Holman looked strong initially, including connecting with redshirt freshman Tre'quan Smith on a beautiful pass. And on fourth and seven, Smith had a beautiful diving catch to extend drive deep into USF territory. But the Knights couldn't score a touchdown, ultimately settling for the field goal by Matthew Wright.
It was all USF from there.
The Bulls responded with a drive in which they easily carved up the Knights, especially with USF QB Quinton Flowers making excellent choices on the zone read. The drive appeared to be blunted with an illegal touching penalty by USF, Flowers getting stuffed, and an incomplete pass. But of course this was the UCF defense. On fourth and eight, Flowers threw a twenty-eight yard pass and followed that with a touchdown pass to Barr.
The Knights promptly went three and out, though the defense followed by forcing USF to punt (helped quite a bit by USF penalties). UCF bookended that decent stand with another three and out, however, and the Bulls returned to form on the next drive, which features some great runs out of the diamond formation. Flowers would add his second touchdown pass of the night to put the Bulls up 14-3.
After a brief flirtation with moving the ball, the UCF offense again flopped badly. On third down Holman threw a pick over the middle. USF again tore through the uninspired Knights defense and Quinton Flowers added a touchdown on the ground.
On the next drive, Smith had - again - a highlight reel catch in which he went up for the ball, got hit, flipped head over feet, and somehow held on to the ball:


The drive stalled subsequently, of course. But Smith's play was the lone bright spot for the Knights and ended with seven catches for 102 yards (making him the only Knight with multiple catches on the evening).
The Bulls poured it on after that. USF made good use of the time remaining on the clock and ended the half by tacking on a field goal.
Things looked no better for the Knights in the second half. Flowers added his second rushing touchdown on the opening drive of the half. And after UCF turned it over on downs, Flowers threw a twenty-six yard touchdown pass to Price. The Bulls would also add a pair of field goals.
With the easy win, the Bulls' hopes to win the AAC East remain alive. If Temple stumbles, USF will have a berth in the AAC Championship Game.

Central Florida Knights vs. South Florida Bulls: Preview, TV, Streaming, Start Time, Prediction

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/11/25/9801416/central-florida-knights-vs-south-florida-bulls-preview-tv-streaming


Start Time: 7:30 PM EST, Thursday, November 26
Location: Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando, Florida.
TV: ESPN
Streaming: WatchESPN
Live Stats: Here
Series: South Florida leads 4-2, but UCF has won the two most recent meetings.

What a difference a year makes.
In last season's iteration of the War on I-4, the Central Florida Knights blanked the South Florida Bulls in a 16-0 victory, marking the first time that the Bulls had been shut out at home.
Fast forward to this year, where you have a complete reversal of fortune.  The Bulls (7-4) enter tomorrow's primetime ESPN matchup winners of three straight (six of seven overall) and need a win plus a Temple loss for a spot in the AAC Championship Game.  On the other side, you have the 0-11 UCF Knights, who have looked hapless all season long.  A rash of injuries and roster turnover has led to much of the problems for the Knights, who can't seem to catch a break.
So, with the Bulls rolling and UCF just trying to make it to the end of the season, should we expect an easy USF win or can the Knights pull themselves together long enough to spoil their in-state rival's championship run?
UCF Outlook:
Hey, look at UCF getting two straight ESPN primetime games!  Unfortunately for the Knights, the results will probably look a lot like last week's beat down against ECU. The Knights brought their particular brand of ineptitude against the Pirates, getting badly outgained 619 to 232.  They scored on their opening drive to go up 7-0 on ECU, but then the wheels came off.  The Pirates scored 44 unanswered points to cruise to the win, but the loss wasn't the only one on the night for UCF. Justin Holman sprained his ankle and is questionable tomorrow against the Bulls, which is par for the course for UCF.  Without Holman, the Knights will be forced to go with either redshirt freshman Tyler Harris or Bo Schneider at quarterback.  Harris was bad against ECU, going 2-12 for 21 yards before being replaced by Schneider, who completed a grand total of zero passes.  Whoever gets the start under center, they should probably get the ball to Tre'Quan Smith as much as possible.  Smith has been the Knights' best weapon this season, compiling 45 catches for 622 yards and four touchdowns.
Even if by some miracle the Knights find a scoring punch tomorrow, the defense is won't be able to hold off the Bulls.  The Knights have allowed an obscene amount of points and yards on the season, with opponents averaging 37.1 points and 465 yards per game.  That's bad news against the red hot Bulls, whose one two punch of Marlon Mack and Quinton Flowers can run over even a stout defense.
USF Outlook:
Over the past three games, the Bulls have totally shut down ECU, Temple and Cincinnati en route to a three game winning streak.  They choked out the Pirate offense in a rainstorm in Greenville, followed that up with a signature win at home over #21 Temple, and then completely demolished Cincinnati last week, leading 51-3 at the half before winning 65-27.
Mack and Flowers have gotten most of the praise and attention during the streak, and rightfully so with their numbers.  However, the USF defense has been the lynchpin to their success.  The Bulls held the Pirates to just 17 points and 62 rushing yards, played the highly rated Temple defense to a draw in their win over the Owls, and totally shut down a high powered Cincinnati offense early on, forcing six Bearcat turnovers to seize momentum.
USF's front seven, led by Auggie Sanchez (96 total tackles), Bruce Hector (4 sacks) and Eric Lee (9 TFL), is playing lights out right now.  With the front seven living in the UCF backfield, Jamie Byrd and the rest of the Bulls' secondary should have a pretty easy time cleaning up after them.
Prediction
The Bulls won't need anywhere close to the type of effort we've become accustomed to seeing from them tomorrow against the punchless Knights, but that doesn't mean they won't be ready to play.  Head coach Willie Taggart has done a fabulous job of keeping his team focused on the task at hand, which has them on the doorstep of the AAC Championship Game.  The Bulls have shown that they're more than capable of taking away what the opposition does best (which in the case of the Knights is nothing), while simultaneously being overwhelming on offense.  With the USF defense able to completely shut down the UCF offense and Mack and Flowers running and throwing at will against UCF's porous defense, the Bulls will get revenge for last season's shut out with one of their own tomorrow.

South Florida 56 - Central Florida 0

ECU-UCF Recap: Pirates Bury Knights, 44-7

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/11/19/9767712/ecu-ucf-recap-pirates-bury-knights-44-7


On a rainy Orlando night in front of a mostly empty stadium, the ECU Pirates snapped their three game losing streak and UCF re-affirmed its position as the least watchable team in the FBS.
ECU discovered the simplest way to revive an uninspiring offense: play a game against the poor Knights. Pirates QB Blake Kemp and WR Isaiah Jones got anything they wanted against an atrocious UCF defense that never mustered a pass rush, constantly missed tackles, and collapsed totally in the secondary.
By the end of the game, it was hard to remember that there was a time when the Knights had briefly led. UCF's opening drive started scary with a fumble by Holman that the Knights recovered but it ended with a touchdown catch by redshirt freshman Tre'Quan Smith (who is enjoying arguably the best season by a freshman WR in school history).The drive was helped by Holman taking advantage of the free play (something he's historically done a very good job of) on an ECU offside penalty with a long pass to Jordan Franks.
And that was mostly it for the Knights.
Blake Kemp promptly responded by carving up the young and dumb UCF secondary with a nine play 81 yard drive ending in a touchdown pass to WR Brandon Bishop. On the subsequent kickoff return, UCF's Tristan Payton took the ball out of the end zone and fumbled shortly before the thirty. ECU - of course - recovered. Minutes later, Kemp threw a touchdown pass to Isaiah Jones in the corner of the endzone.
UCF did have a brief flirtation with - you know - doing something. Later in the first quarter, UCF QB Justin Holman threw a beautiful pass to Payton for what would have been a touchdown if not for the egregious holding penalty by Tate Hernley.
In the second quarter, things really collapsed for the Knights. Kemp threw another touchdown pass. ECU kicked its first field goal. And Pirate RB Chris Hairston had a tremendous touchdown run in which he eluded five flailing UCF tacklers. In between all of that, UCF's terrible injury luck once again reared its ugly head. Holman suffered a high ankle sprain and was replaced at QB by redshirt freshman Tyler Harris.
Harris was utterly ineffective, going an abysmal 2/12 for 21 yards (he would eventually be replaced by Bo Schneider in the fourth quarter. Schneider did not complete a pass).
The second half started with a little bit of excitement for Knights fans when UCF beautifully executed an onside kick. But with Harris at the helm, the Knights failed to capitalize on the good field position. The Pirates tacked on 13 points in the third quarter, including another touchdown catch by Isiah Jones.
Oh. And there was another UCF fumble on a kickoff return, this time by Blake Tiralosi.
ECU could have made things even worse, but had a couple of touchdowns called back for penalties. Even the lopsided final score of 44-7 fails to adequately capture just how badly UCF performed and just how thoroughly ECU dominated the game. ECU's leading wide receiver Isaiah Jones had more receiving yards and more touchdowns than UCF's entire team did. And Hairston ran for more than UCF's entire team did. All told, the Pirates outgained the Knights to the tune of 619 to 232 total yards.
The Pirates should celebrate a well-delivered clobbering. UCF, meanwhile, limps to its season finale against rival USF.

UCF Knights v. ECU Pirates: Preview, TV, Radio, Betting Line, Start Time, Prediction

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/11/18/9752816/ucf-knights-v-ecu-pirates-preview-tv-radio-betting-line-start-time

The last time we saw the East Carolina Pirates (4-6, 2-4 AAC), they were stumbling around the Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium turf in an ugly 22-17 loss to South Florida.  While they made it close in the second half against the Bulls, the Pirates could not overcome a horrible start.  The offense bottomed out in the first half, accumulating only 29 yards at halftime before finishing with a total of 220 yards on the night.
Luckily, ECU had a bye last week, so they've had two weeks to try to sort out whatever issues they have on offense.  Then again, the Pirates have looked so discombobulated at times, it remains to be seen if two weeks was long enough to work through the myriad of issues they have on offense.
UCF (0-10, 0-6 AAC) also had the bye week and a little bit of an opportunity to get some players healthy. Not that this ought to matter much. While ECU is a team in chaos after dropping its last three games, the Pirates should be more than a match for the staggering disaster UCF calls a football team.
Start time: Thursday, November 19, 2015 at 7:30 PM.
Location: Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando, FL.
TV: ESPN.
Radio: 96.9-FM & 740-AM - Orlando.
Betting Line: ECU is a fifteen point favorite.
The Series: ECU leads the series 9-4. The Knights have won two straight, including 2014's classic in which the Knights grabbed a share of the AAC Conference Championship on "O Holy Knight":
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That's the last football game UCF won, by the way. December 4, 2014 was a long time ago.
ECU Outlook: The central issue for the Pirate offense is a dismal quarterback situation.  James Summers was at the forefront of the USF debacle, with his slow start contributing to the overall malaise in the first half.  His final numbers (14-22, 158 yards and 20 carries, 42 yards, 2 TD) were decent, but his first half performance is more representative of the recent struggles of the offense over the past several games.
Summers has the ability to get the offense moving, especially with his feet.  However, the run game has also been MIA during the course of the Pirates' current three game skid.  ECU had only 62 rushing yards total against USF, with Summers (42 yards) and Chris Hairston (24 yards) accounting for all of the yardage.  Those two will again be looked on to provide some sort of output against UCF, but if things continue the way they've been going the past few games, don't expect much of anything from ECU on the ground.
By comparison, the passing game has been better, although not without its issues as well.  Summers has been the designated starter, despite completing 57% of his passes and throwing no touchdowns in the last three games.  Backup Blake Kemp was a threat earlier in the season, but inconsistency lost him the job.  For better or worse, it looks like Ruffin McNeill is sticking with Summers.
It's a shame the Pirate offense has been playing so poorly, because the defense has done more than its fair share to keep them in the game.  They've allowed a good deal of yardage, but have done a good job of limiting big plays.  A prime example occurred against USF, when they held Quinton Flowers and Marlon Mack at bay for much of that game.  We saw how explosive those two were against Temple, so that gives us an idea of what the ECU defense can do.
UCF Outlook: Look, Interim head coach Danny Barrett is probably going winless during his tenure (just like the Knights' last interim head coach, Alan Gooch, did back in 2003). UCF fans should have no illusions about the Knights' chances against even a team as inconsistent as ECU.
But we'd be remiss to not at least acknowledge that UCF has been able to do some things better in recent weeks. The offense has picked up a bit, especially the run game. Against their two most recent opponents Tulsa and Cincinnati, UCF had 321 rushing yards. And that's much better than the mere 466 yards the Knights had accumulated on the ground over the first eight games of the season.
There's also an opportunity for the Knights young wide receivers to make a bit of noise and get us looking towards the future. True freshman Tristan Payton and redshirt freshman Tre'Quan Smith should be healthy after having been dinged up two weeks ago at Tulsa. Watching Smith establish himself has been one of the (few) joys for Knights fans this year. Going into the game, he's tied with J.J. Worton for most receptions by a freshman in UCF history (with 41) and has the second most receiving yards (572) among UCF freshman all-time. Smith can be a special player, as demonstrated by his 131 yard outing (plus a touchdown) against Tulsa which featured this catch:
So.
More of that, please.
Prediction: Both teams are coming off of a bye, so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor. Given that both ECU and UCF have struggled offensively, don’t expect many points or big plays. In the end, the Pirate defense will be able to hold off UCF, while the offense will be able to pull itself together just long enough to get the win.
ECU 24 – UCF 21

Recap: Tulsa Gives UCF Hope, Slams The Door Late To Win 45-30.

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/11/7/9688006/recap-tulsa-gives-ucf-hope-slams-the-door-late-to-win-45-30