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Wednesday, February 15, 2017

UCF Knights vs University of Houston Cougars: Preview, Betting Line, Start Time, TV, Radio, Prediction

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/10/28/13452662/ucf-knights-vs-university-of-houston-cougars-preview-betting-line-start-time-tv-radio-prediction

Start Time: Saturday, October 29, 2016 at 12 PM ET/11:00 AM CT.

Location: TDECU Stadium

TV/Streaming: ESPNU and WatchESPN

Radio/Live Stats: 96.9 FM740 AM (Orlando) and KPRC 950 AM (Houston) for radio. Live stats are here.

Betting Line: Houston opened as a 12.5 point favorite, but that’s shrunk a bit to -9.5 now.

Records: UCF is 4-3 and 2-1 in the AAC. The Knights have already matched our prediction for total wins this year and have progressed farther than expected in head coach Scott Frost’s first year. The Cougars are 6-2 and 3-2 AAC – a fine record but terribly disappointing given the expectations. Houston is ranked #24 in the Coaches Poll.

All-Time Series: The Knights led the series, which stretches back to these teams’ Conference USA days, at 5-2. Last year Houston crushed UCF in Orlando, prompting George O’Leary’s resignation. The last time the game was played in Houston, the Knights prevailed when Brandon Alexander forced a Greg Ward Jr. fumble through the end zone for a touch back to preserve the lead. The latter result is a more typical UCF/Houston finish – games in this series have been tight historically.

Houston Outlook: It hasn’t been a happy three weeks for the Cougars. Houston looked like world-beaters after slapping around the Oklahoma Sooners in week one but seem to have faded of late. October was not kind: Houston was beaten by Navy 46-40, edged out Tulsa 38-31 thanks to some Herculean efforts, and was smashed last week by SMU 38-16. The Cougars look unlikely to recapture the AAC West from Navy.

Houston has nonetheless been the better of these two teams and ought to beat the Knights. But as last week’s surprising loss demonstrates, nothing can be taken for granted, even at home. This team’s state of mind is a big question mark.

But for what it’s worth, the advanced stats give Houston a 71% chance to win and predict a margin of 9.6. I’m not sure I like the Cougars’ prospects quite that much, but it feels about right. The Knights are a bit vulnerable to a mobile quarterback, and some of the things that sank Houston last week (two fumbles lost in the first four drives!) are unlikely to recur.

UCF Outlook: Last week the Knights rebounded from their earlier soul-deadening, last second loss to Temple with a come from behind win in ~~the greatest rivalry in college athletics~~ an AAC East division match-up against UConn. It was a victory achieved largely on freshman quarterback McKenzie Milton’s arm (29/45, 317 yards, 3 TDs), as the Knights did not lean on the run as much as they have typically done. The game also saw freshman wide receiver Dredrick Snelson make an impact for the first time – the former four star recruit had five receptions for a team-high 63 yards and a touchdown.

SMU showed last week that Navy’s success against Houston was not an aberration. SMU capitalized on early turnovers, hounded Greg Ward Jr. (sacked 7 times), and had great success running and squatting on the ball. Could UCF do the same? Eh, maybe.

But the Knights have seldom put everything together at the same time this year. Their turnover luck has been mostly bad, and while the Knights have been successful running the ball, clock-chewing drives have not been their strong suit (Temple game, anyone?). Still, the Knights have done a fine job attacking the quarterback. Especially everyone’s favorite one-handed linebacker – Shaquem Griffin – who leads the team with six sacks and 9 tackles for loss.

It requires the Knights to play more mistake free than they have all year, but a win is certainly plausible (even if I can’t predict it’s likely).

UCF Knights vs University of Connecticut Huskies: Preview, Odds, Start Time, TV, Radio, Prediction

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/10/21/13358858/ucf-knights-vs-university-of-connecticut-huskies-preview-odds-start-time-tv-radio-prediction-uconn

Start Time: Saturday, October 22 at Noon EST.

Location: Rentschler Field, East Hartford, Connecticut.

TV/Streaming: ESPN News and WatchESPN.

Radio/Live Stats: 96.9 FM for radio and over here for live stats.

Odds: UCF opened a two point favorite and has now moved to a 4.5 point favorite.

Records: UCF is 3-3 (1-1 AAC) and UConn is 3-4 (1-3 AAC). Say this for the Huskies though: all three conferences losses come against the three best teams in the AAC: Navy, Houston, and USF.

All-Time Series: The game that UConn Head Coach dubbed the Civil Conflict (and then later, the “ConFLiCT”) stands at 2-1, UConn. It is of course ~~the most important rivalry in college sports~~ a divisional football game that is played annually.

But we at Underdog Dynasty have embraced the absurdity of a “rivalry” without geographic proximity or shared cultural stakes. And we’ll continue doing that. So it was disappointing to hear Diaco downplay it:

“We’re excited to play,” Diaco said when asked about the Conflict. “I’ve had enough of the conversation externally, so I’m not going to get into all that business.”

Dude. You came up with this. You made a trophy. And a countdown clock. You’re stuck with this thing now.

UCF Outlook: UCF had Homecoming ruined last week. Maybe tomorrow, they can ruin UConn’s.

The Knights endured one of the most disappointing and shocking losses in recent program history last week, leading Temple for all but one second of the game. Couple that with the loss to Maryland in the second overtime and the Knights are maddeningly close to being 5-1. But at 3-3, the Knights need the win here if they hope to establish themselves as a better than middling AAC team. With the exception of games against Houston and USF, every game remaining on the schedule is very winnable - but let’s not have to sweet about getting bowl eligible, huh?

Freshman QB McKenzie Milton has the potential for a great game against the Huskies, who have shown that they are vulnerable to a dual threat quarterback. Last week, USF’s Quentin Flowers threw for 213 yards (and two touchdowns) and rushed for 157 yards (and three touchdowns) against UConn. And the week before that, Houston’s Greg Ward Jr. rocked the Huskies with 389 passing yards (and three touchdowns) and 65 rushing yards (and two touchdowns). If Milton can play like he did the first half against Temple, watch out.

Unfortunately the Knights are down a couple players following the Temple game. Starting left guard Tyler Hudanick was rolled on from behind by a Temple player and suffered an injury to his left leg. His season is done. He’ll be replaced by Chester Brown (top of this week’s depth chart at the position) and Tate Hernly and Micah Anderson may rotate in. Sophomore wide receiver Tristan Payton is suspended for conduct issues and will not travel. Payton’s contributions this year have been modest – he has six catches for 55 yards and one touchdown.

UConn Outlook: The Huskies also have that “need to get back on track” feeling. The UConn defense was shredded in back-to-back weeks against Houston (giving up 42 points and 540 yards) and USF (giving up 42 points and 529 yards).

But UConn’s front seven may still cause problems for the Knights. They’re the strength of the defense and generally do well stopping the run. We saw against Temple how badly the Knights perform when the run game is suffocated, as it was in the second half. If the Huskies can muster similar success, it could easily be another painful game for UCF.

But they’ll need to scrape together more offense to overcome a Knights defense that has been solid to very good for substantial stretches (not so much when they’re stranded on the field for as long as they were against Michigan and Temple). The Huskies have yet to score more than 27 points in a game.

UCF fans should keep an eye on Arkeel Newsome who has been a playmaker for UConn. He had two impressive touchdowns last week against the Bulls: a 70-yard catch from QB Bryant Shirreffs and a four yard touchdown run in which he dragged USF defenders into the end zone. He finished with 162 yards from scrimmage. Frankly, the UConn staff needs to involve him more in their game plan. As an outsider looking in, Newsome seems underutilized.

Prediction: I’ll take the Knights to win on the strength of Milton as a dual threat. But we’ve seen enough dysfunction out of the Knights recently that I expect it to be touch-and-go.

Temple Beats UCF on Touchdown Pass with :01 To Play

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/10/15/13296836/temple-owls-ucf-knights-football-recap-october-15-2016

Start Time: Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 7:30 PM EST

Location: Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando, FL

TV/Streaming: ESPNU

Radio/Live Stats: 96.9 The Game (Orlando) and 97.5 The Fanatic (Philly). Live stats over here.

Betting Line: UCF opened as a one point favorite, with the line having now moved to 3.5 points.

Records: UCF is 3-2 (1-0 AAC), while Temple is 3-3 (1-1 AAC).

All-Time Series: UCF has the 2-1 series lead. Temple’s sole win in the series came last year when the Owls avoided a major scare with two rushing touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

UCF Outlook: It’s been too long since we’ve seen the Knights on the field. Hurricane Matthew meant that the Knights rescheduled last week’s game against Tulane to November 5 (fortunately, both schools had a bye that day). But when we last saw the Knights hit the field, they rocked ECU 47-29 thanks to big play defense and special teams.

I expect them to be an even better team against Temple. The Knights were hampered in their last outing by having to start senior QB Justin Holman in place of freshman McKenzie Milton. Quarterback has been something of a revolving door for the Knights this season: Holman opened the season starting against SC State (doing poorly for the first half before playing well in the second), suffered a hamstring injury against Michigan (after playing poorly) and was replaced by back-up Nick Patti (who also played poorly). Milton got the start against Maryland (and showed promise despite numerous fumbled snaps) and against FIU (playing mistake free before getting dinged up and replaced with Patti). Against ECU, Head Coach Scott Frost made the surprise game time decision to go with Holman, who was apparently healthier. Holman did not impress. He went 11/29 for 156 yards, two interceptions, and 31 yards offense.

A Holman-led UCF offense simply does not move the ball consistently. But a Milton-led UCF offense does. And while Frost has played coy about the quarterback situation, I have to believe that Milton is fully healthy, starts, and stays in the game against the Owls. Coupled with a defense led by fired up guys like Shaquem Griffin (24 tackles, 7 TFL, 5 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 2 forced fumbles on the year), it’s easy to see the Knights being successful on Saturday.

Unrelated to the play on the field – the Knights will be wearing white helmets with reflective logos in honor of Homecoming Week. How is that in honor of Homecoming? The connection is that Homecoming means Spirit Splash, and that means Reflection Pond, that means reflective logos. Huh. Seems tenuous, but whatever. What’s great is that some of these helmets will be auctioned off “sometime after the game Saturday.” It’s not the first time UCF has done something like this – the program also sold the variant helmets worn in 2013 against rival USF (the Knights’ first win in that series). A very cool choice, and we hope to see more of this in the future.

Temple Outlook: This is the start of two key weeks in determining where Temple will fall in the AAC East divisional. At 1-1 in conference with a loss to the West division’s Memphis, the Owls control their own destiny. But the Owls will need to endure back-to-back games against UCF (second in the East) and USF (first in the East, and deservedly the favorite to win the division). Temple can ill afford taking a loss this week if the Owls hope to win the division for the second year in a row.

Veteran Senior starting quarterback P.J. Walker will lead the Owls’ offense. Despite the loss last week against Memphis, Walker set a Temple record for pass attempts (59) and tied records for completions (36) and passing yards (445). The running game should lean on Senior RB Jahad Thomas, who has at least two touchdowns in each of his last four games. It was Thomas whom the Owls rode to victory against the Knights last year: he had 199 yards and accounted for three of Temple’s four touchdowns against the Knights last year.

The defensive statistics for Temple look good, at least superficially. The Owls allow an average 320 yards per game (good for third in the conference), but haven’t exactly played a grueling schedule. Temple’s best win against is an 45-20 victory against SMU (Charlotte? Stony Brook? Yawn). The Owls have lost to Army, Penn State, and Memphis. These offenses aren’t lighting people on fire.

Prediction: The Vegas odds reflect a close game and give the Knights a slight edge. The advanced stats give Temple a 56% chance of winning (with a projected margin of 2.6).

But I expect to see the Knights firing on all cylinders. If we continue to see the intensity on defense and special teams demonstrated in UCF’s last game couple of games, then I think the return of Milton will provide consistency on offense and allow the Knights to win more convincingly. I call it a UCF win by at least ten points.

UCF Knights vs Temple Owls: Preview, Betting Line, Start Time, TV, Radio, Prediction

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/10/14/13273594/ucf-knights-v-temple-owls-wolverines-football-preview-tv-streaming-odds-central-florida-prediction

Start Time: Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 7:30 PM EST

Location: Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando, FL

TV/Streaming: ESPNU

Radio/Live Stats: 96.9 The Game (Orlando) and 97.5 The Fanatic (Philly). Live stats over here.

Betting Line: UCF opened as a one point favorite, with the line having now moved to 3.5 points.

Records: UCF is 3-2 (1-0 AAC), while Temple is 3-3 (1-1 AAC).

All-Time Series: UCF has the 2-1 series lead. Temple’s sole win in the series came last year when the Owls avoided a major scare with two rushing touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

Prediction: The Vegas odds reflect a close game and give the Knights a slight edge. The advanced stats give Temple a 56% chance of winning (with a projected margin of 2.6).

UCF Knights vs East Carolina Pirates: Preview, Game Time, TV, Betting Line

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/9/30/13108742/ucf-knights-ecu-pirates-football-preview-tv-streaming-betting-line-central-florida-east-carolina

Start Time: 12 P.M. EST, Saturday, October 1, 2016.

Location: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, North Carolina. The home of the best mid-field logo in college sports.

TV/Streaming: CBS Sports Network; CBSSports.com/live

Radio: 96.9 FM/740 AM (Orlando) or a whole bunch of choices in North Carolina. Also Sirius (channel 132) and XM (channel 201).

Live Stats: Your live stats are over here if you want them UCF-flavored and over here for ECU-flavored. But they’re the same dang thing.

Betting Line: ECU opened at -5.5, which has now shrunk to either -3 or -3.5 depending where you look.

Records: Both teams stand at 2-2 overall, and this is the first conference game for both.

All-Time Series: Pirates lead the all-time series 10-4. It’s been more even in the recent past with the Knights winning three of the last five.

UCF Outlook: Talk of Saturday’s game in Greenville was necessarily going to have to begin with a reminder of what happened the last time the Knights played at ECU:

Of course, that was the Knights last win before losing every game until they shutout South Carolina State in this year’s opener. Last year, the Pirates manhandled the Knights in Orlando to the tune of 44-7.

UCF is now riding high after decimating hapless FIU 53-14. The Knights dominated throughout, holding FIU to only 189 yards of offense while racking up 501 of their own. Big plays were definitely a factor, as freshman running back Adrian Killins added both a 61 yard touchdown run and a 60 yard catch. He is the team’s leading rusher, going a lopsided 16 carries for 241 yards on the season so far. Killins may have more opportunities this week in light of the injury to fellow freshman RB Jawon Hamilton, who was leading UCF in carries going into FIU.

Look for UCF to continue to lean on the run against an ECU defense that is not so good at stopping it. The Pirates have yielded an average 161.8 yards per game on the ground, ranking an unimpressive 73^rd in the FBS.

ECU Outlook:

Last week saw the Pirates’ six game streak of beating ACC teams end with a 54-17 hammering by Virginia Tech. ECU was hampered by numerous special teams mistakes – a punt returned for a touchdown, a blocked field goal, a blocked punt, and a big tackle for a loss on an attempted rugby punt.

There’s little doubt that the Pirate’s offense can be great. They’ve shown much promise in Head Coach Scottie Montgomery’s first year. ECU’s offense averages over 524 yards per game (most in the country) but the Pirates have failed to convert much of that success into points. ECU averages only 29.2 points per game, putting them ninth in the AAC. ECU has struggled in the red zone in its last two games: 2-of-6 with only one touchdown (and three turnovers) against South Carolina and 1-of-3 for a field goal against Virginia Tech.

But Senior QB Philip Nelson ought to have opportunities against UCF’s secondary. The Knights’ secondary has performed well against weaker opponents but was utterly exposed by Michigan and suffered some blown coverages against Maryland. On the downside for Pirates fans, at least some of that had to do with UCF loading the box, a choice which seems less necessary against ECU.

This is a game that could easily go either way. The Vegas odds are fittingly close and the advanced stats give the Pirates a 52% win probability. Who knows: maybe the game will be as tight as 2014 . . .

UCF Crushes FIU 53-14

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/9/25/13048476/ucf-knights-crushes-fiu-panhers-53-14-scott-frost-ron-turner-cusa-football-sunshine-state

UCF Knights vs. FIU Golden Panthers: Preview, Betting Line, Start Time, Streaming, Radio

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/9/23/13031514/ucf-knights-v-fiu-golden-panthers-football-preview-tv-streaming-betting-line-central-florida

Start Time: Saturday, September 24 at 7:00 PM EST

Location: Ocean Bank Field at FIU Stadium, Miami, FL

TV/Streaming: Streamed by beIN SPORTS (your source for CUSA football addiction, starting this year).

Radio/Live Stats: AM 790, live stats here.

Betting Line: UCF is a 5.5 to 7 point favorite, depending where you look.

Records: UCF is 1-2 and FIU is 0-3. Neither have started conference play.

All-Time Series: It stands even at 2-2.

UCF Outlook: This game is a must-win for UCF. For a program with the aspirations and recent (well, not last year) success the Knights have, you just cannot be losing to an in-state Conference USA opponent.

And you dang well can’t be doing it two years in a row.

FIU’s victory over UCF last year kicked off an utterly miserable season for the Knights. The Knights offense floundered and failed to convert third downs. FIU’s defense was tenacious. FIU came back from down 14-3 to win 15-14. Little did UCF fans know that things would somehow go downhill from there.

The good news is that UCF looks better than FIU and ought to win tomorrow. The offense has found a pulse. UCF’s running back rotation has worked very well with a mix of freshman Jawon Hamilton (a Miami guy!), the senior bruiser Dontravious Wilson, and opportunities for freshman speedster Adrian Killins. QB McKenzie Milton (another freshman) looks like the answer at quarterback despite his fumbles against Maryland. And for what it’s worth, Donovan McNabb (who’ll be a commentator on the broadcast) thinks he’s an upgrade over former starter Justin Holman or Nick Patti. He ought to be able to take advantage of FIU’s poor secondary and the defense’s difficulty in defending the option.

And if the Knights defense and guys like Demeitre Brim come to play, watch out.

Of course, when it comes to the Golden Panthers, I’ve been wrong before . . .

FIU Outlook: Here is the problem if you’re an FIU fan who wants to be optimistic. The Golden Panthers and the Knights have played a common opponent in Maryland. The Knights looked better than Maryland for long stretches, but eventually succumbed in double overtime and lost 30-24. When FIU played Maryland, the Golden Panthers got the doors blown off, 41-14.

On the upside for FIU fans, the advanced statistics paint a closer to even picture. Football Study Hall pegs FIU’s chance to win at 42%.

But the Golden Panthers front seven are going to need to stay disciplined to defend the Knights spread-to-run attack and Milton’s ability to move outside the pocket and make plays.

Likewise, FIU needs to get more out of its offense. RB Alex Gardner has largely been the spark for the Golden Panthers. He’s scored a touchdown in every game (oor said differently: ¾ of the team’s total TDs on the season) and rushed for over a 100 yards in consecutive games against Maryland and UMass. He’s going to need a big night against a UCF defense that has been successful against the run for much of games, but faded away as things have ground on. If FIU can jump out to a lead or at least keep things close, the Golden Panthers have a shot to grind out a win.