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Sunday, September 24, 2017

UCF Defense Dominates Maryland, Knights Cruise to 38-10 Victory

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/9/23/16355744/ucf-knights-central-florida-maryland-terrapins-terps-recap-2017-pittman-scott-frost-taj-mcgowan-hill

It ends up that this was pretty easy. In a game in which each team lost a key offensive player to injury, the UCF Knights defense controlled the line of scrimmage and hammered Maryland’s quarterbacks over and over. UCF now notches its first win over a Power Five program since beating Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl after the 2013 season.

The game was an early tug of war until Pat Jasinski leveled the Terps’ excellent freshman quarterback Kasim Hill. Hill left the field and did not return. It was all UCF after that. Backup RB Taj McGowan (a steady contributor and one of the few bright spots back in 2015) ran in two touchdowns, while TE Jordan Akins added a touchdown catch. In the fourth quarter, Adrian Killins Jr. ran for a touchdown and CB Mike Hughes snagged a pick six.

Undoubtedly injuries proved a factor. Hill’s loss was a turning point. The Terps had an early 3-0 lead until the injury, and the Knights outscored them 38-7 afterwards. But the injury to Hill doesn’t diminish the quality of this win for the Knights. UCF also played without starting RB Jawon Hamilton, who suffered an early non-contact injury. This was a win UCF earned.

The Knights defense was splendid. The line was especially murderous. Hill’s replacement for the Terps, Max Bortenschlager was clobbered throughout. The whole line performed well, but a special word is warranted for Jamiyus Pittman who had two monstrous sacks.

The Terps’ sole touchdown came on a drive extended by a flurry of UCF penalties. And it came too late in the game to raise anything but a false hope for the Terps.

The Knights’ offense was good though not outstanding. QB McKenzie Milton made mistakes, but Maryland could never make him pay. And importantly, the Knights never suffered a turnover. Ultimately, UCF had more than double Maryland’s total yardage: 428 to 197. That statistic says more about the bad positions the UCF defense inflicted on Maryland than it does about the Knights’ offense. Though to be fair, UCF played conservatively as the game wore on and things seemed out of reach for the Teps.

We have to reserve a final note for the UCF faithful who traveled to this game. They were loud from the beginning, and U-C-F chants could be heard on the broadcast early and often. This observation is exactly right:

This was a dominating victory in UCF’s marquee non-conference game. Let’s revel in it.

UCF Knights vs Maryland Terrapins: Preview, Start Time, TV, Betting Line, Prediction

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/9/22/16348520/ucf-knights-vs-maryland-terrapins-preview-start-time-tv-betting-line-prediction-series-record-terps

Start Time: September 23, 2017 at 3 PM ET.

TV: FS1

Radio: AM 740/FM 96.9 The Game

Location: Maryland Stadium.

Records: Maryland is 2-0, 0-0 Big Ten. UCF is 1-0, 0-0 AAC.

The Series: Maryland won the sole previous meeting last year. It was the first start for UCF QB McKenzie Milton (then a freshman), and though he made some big plays he also made a load of mistakes. The Terps prevailed in double overtime.

Betting Line: Maryland is a four point favorite.

UCF Knights Outlook: UCF fans sorely miss watching the Knights play football. The Knights opened the season on August 31 by absolutely dominating the FIU Panthers. The chaos of Hurricane Irma forced the cancellation of the Knights’ second scheduled game (which would have been against Memphis, and which has been fortunately rescheduled for September 30) and the Knights’ third game against Georgia Tech.

The oddity is that even though we’re in week 4, we still don’t know all that much about the Knights yet. We really haven’t seen the starters play many minutes at all this year – garbage time started very early in the opening week drubbing of the Panthers.

But what we have seen is promising. QB McKenzie Milton has taken serious strides forward in his sophomore year and had a career day in less than three and a half quarters of being on the field. The offensive line (a major liability last season and a question mark going into this one) gave him tons of time to throw. And a defense that had to replace many starters (including the entire secondary) looked excellent. The cornerback spot got a boost when transfer Mike Hughes entered the game.

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But that defense will be tested against an excellent Maryland offense. It will be strength against strength here – the Maryland rushing attack has been one of the best in the country while UCF’s front seven have been the stoutest part of the UCF defense.

Maryland Terrapins Outlook: Look, Maryland has looked really good this year (and been fun to watch). The Terps beat Texas in a wild opener and then blew away an obviously inferior Towson team. It’s also not the biggest sample size to judge from – Texas is questionable and Towson is of course an FCS program. But still, the Terps have looked like a scary team, especially on offense.

Freshman Kasim Hill stepped in at quarterback once Tyrell Pigrome suffered a season-ending injury against Texas (Pigrome won the game for Maryland in double overtime last year). Hill has mostly played mistake-free, and is currently 16/19 for 207 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions on the year. And wide receiver D.J. Moore has been absolutely dynamic and is a big play threat on the outside. The rushing attack is .really something else. RB Ty Johnson carried 12 times for 132 yards against Texas and had 124 yards on a mere five carries against Towson. That’s a 15.1 yard per carry average. The big play potential is a real risk – over thirteen percent of Maryland’s plays have gone for 20 or more yards.

The Terps defense has been at times fast and physical, but also can give up serious yardage. They surrendered almost 500 yards to Texas (big plays and Texas penalties mitigated the damage the Longhorns were able to inflict on those yards) and even struggled for a quarter against Towson.

Prediction: I foresee a potential shootout here. I believe both teams will be able to move the ball and that the defenses will be seriously tested. But I have more confidence right now that Maryland is the better team. It may be a bit cynical of me to think so, but look – the body of evidence for UCF is so small. Maybe I’ll feel more confident in these Knights after I’ve seen the starters play more than two and a half quarters or so.

Right now, I’ll go with Maryland 42, UCF 35.

For more on this game, check out our “Five Questions” with Maryland blog Testudo Times and our reciprocal answers over here.

I’ll tell you what – I am pretty tired of watching UCF’s future opponents and not getting to see our own Knights take the field. But with a tough game at Maryland this Saturday, we finally get to see the UCF Knights in action again.

There have been changes to the schedule, prompted by Hurricane chaos. The once-cancelled Memphis game is now back on the calendar. We’ll play the Tigers on September 30 (I am so glad to have been wrong about the odds of this getting done). This takes the Maine Black Bears off the schedule - Memphis and UCF did not share a bye week, necessitating another cancellation to slot Memphis back in. It’s a small price to pay for the return of a marquee cross-divisional game.

And unfortunately, Georgia Tech is off the schedule, a casualty of lack of practice time in advance of the scheduled game. The Yellow Jackets – like the Black Bears -- now drop off this list.

Our former and future opponents, in schedule order:

FIU Panthers (1-1 Overall, 0-0 Conference USA)

The Panthers also suffered schedule chaos at the hands of Irma. Their game against Indiana was cancelled.

Maryland Terrapins (2-0 Overall, 0-0 Big Ten)

Finally – an opponent we’ll actually get to play as scheduled. The Terps were off this past week, and have previously shredded Texas and blown away Towson. They are a dangerous team, especially on offense. And frankly deserve to be ranked.

Memphis Tigers (2-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

The Tigers are riding high after edging #25 UCLA in a 48-45 shootout. For the first time this season,[1] Memphis QB Riley Ferguson showcased his tremendous ability – he threw for 398 yards, six touchdowns, and only a single interception.

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With only a game against the Southern Illinois Salukis before they play us, it’s clear the Tigers will be undefeated on September 30.

Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Caught a break against a bad MAC team in Miami (OH) and survived, 21-17, thanks to a pick six. Bearcats QB Hayden Moore continues to make mistakes, including throwing two second half interceptions of his own.

Cincinnati looks like the third or fourth best team in the (frankly not very good) AAC East.

ECU Pirates (0-3 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

In the latest of what’s been a trio of ugly losses, ECU was blown out by Virginia Tech, 64-17. A (very small) bright spot – the Pirates outscored the Hokies 17-7 in the first quarter.

I have confidence the Pirates are the worst team in the conference. Yes, worse than UConn. This will be a gimmie for the Knights.

Navy Midshipmen (2-0 Overall, 1-0 AAC)

Navy had a bye week, and resumes play on Saturday against a Cincinnati team they ought to soundly beat.

SMU Mustangs (2-1 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

The Mustangs suffered a 56-36 loss against TCU. It was a closer game than the score might suggest. The Mustangs were competitive throughout, but their defense collapsed in the fourth quarter, yielding two consecutive scoring drives. And then Mustangs QB Ben Hicks chucked a pick-six.

Pencil our game against in the Mustangs in as a likely shootout (a bit of a theme for our AAC West opponents, I’m thinking).

UConn Huskies (1-1 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Lost to Virginia by 20 points. Didn’t score in the first half. This is a poor Huskies team. Like the ECU game, I see this as an easy win for the Knights.

Temple Owls (2-1 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Beat a winless UMass team 29-21. And this was a week after squeaking past Villanova. Though the reigning conference champion looks like it will not be a force in the division this year, the Owls have at least found competent QB play in Logan Marchi.

USF Bulls (3-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Soundly beat their Big Ten opponent, Illinois. This was the Bulls’ first game this season in which it looked like they deserved to be a ranked team.

USF is fast and physical on defense. The Bulls clamped down on the Fighting Illini, who just could not get anything meaningful going offensively.

But it was also another slow and sloppy start for USF on offense and special teams. Eventually, someone might be able to make them pay for these errors. But it’s not going to happen any earlier than October 28, when the Bulls play the Houston Cougars. Maybe. There’s a pretty high likelihood USF will be undefeated when they visit Spectrum Stadium on Black Friday.

Previous ‘Know Your Foes’: Week 1, Week 2.

[1] Memphis’s game against ULM was played in heavy rain, prompting the Tigers to lean heavily on the run.

Know Your Foes: UCF’s Opponents After Week Two

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/9/12/16284298/know-your-foes-ucfs-opponents-after-week-two

Hurricane Irma denied Knights fans what would have been an exciting cross-divisional game against AAC west contender Memphis. And we were likewise denied the opportunity to see divisional foes USF and UConn play. The Georgia Tech game scheduled for Saturday has also been cancelled.

Our former and future opponents, in schedule order:

FIU Panthers (1-1 Overall, 0-0 Conference USA)

Good for the Panthers who, like FAU, managed to be a Florida school to squeeze some football in despite Hurricane Irma. FIU pulled this off by moving their home opener against Alcorn State to Legion Field in Birmingham.

The Panthers won 17-10. So UCF’s week one beatdown wasn’t much of a quality win. In fairness to FIU, this game shouldn’t have been quite so close. FIU dominated the box score. But FIU squandered some scoring opportunities - WR Thomas Owens (he had the 75 yard TD catch against the Knights) fumbled on the Alcorn State 2 yard line and Jose Borreagles missed a field goal.

~~Memphis Tigers~~ ~~(1-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)~~

Wish the timing for this game had worked out; I predicted a good game and a Knights win. In a bizarre sequence of events, the game was moved up to Friday, and then canceled late Thursday night/early Friday morning after the Tigers’ plane had landed in Florida.

Rescheduling would be difficulty and – in my estimate – highly unlikely to occur. The Tigers and the Knights don’t share a bye week. There might be a slim chance on September 30 when Memphis plays at Georgia State and UCF hosts Maine. Probably too many moving parts to make this work.

~~Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (1-1 Overall, 0-0 ACC)~~

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Oh, our scheduled home game against GT isn’t happening either.

That certainly seems a valid reason to not host the game at Spectrum Stadium. But UCF has not provided an explanation of why the game could not be moved to another site, or whether that was explored as an option.

We’ll drop Memphis and Georgia Tech off this list next time, because it’s hard to imagine these getting rescheduled.

Maryland Terrapins (2-0 Overall, 0-0 Big Ten)

Cruised past Towson 63-17. The outcome was never in doubt here and the Terps had a number of explosive plays. This is a dangerous team.

Maine Black Bears (1-1 Overall, 0-1 Colonial Athletic Association)

Beat Bryant 60-12. The Black Bears dominated.

Cincinnati Bearcats (1-1 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Played a better than expected game against #8 Michigan before losing 36-14. It was still an ugly performance by Cincinnati QB Hayden Moore who completed a mere 15-of-40 pass attempts for 132 yards. He also tossed two picks.

That the game was close for so long had more to do with Michigan’s sloppiness than Cincinnati’s successes.

ECU Pirates (0-2 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

The Pirates followed up a loss to an FCS program by failing totally against the West Virginia Mountaineers. This game was 49-3 at the half and ended up 56-20. ECU is likely the worst team in the AAC.

Navy Midshipmen (2-0 Overall, 1-0 AAC)

Edged Tulane 23-21. Navy was sloppy, with quarterback Zach Abey (who shared last week AAC offensive player of the week honors with UCF’s McKenzie Milton) fumbling twice and throwing an interception. Tulane played most of the game with backup quarterback Johnathan Brantley following an injury to starter Jonathan Banks.

SMU Mustangs (2-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Beat the University of North Texas 54-32. But UNT’s passing attack managed to shred the Mustangs. UNT quarterback Mason Fine racked up 424 yards passing and three touchdowns. The SMU pass defense is suspect.

UConn Huskies (1-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Didn’t get to play USF because of travel concerns arising from Irma.

Temple Owls (1-1 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Could have easily lost against the Villanova Wildcats, but ultimately prevailed 16-13. Frankly, the Owls were bailed out by the Wildcats’ poor execution. This is not a promising Temple team.

USF Bulls (2-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Our companions in Hurricane woe.

UCF Knights vs Memphis Tigers: Preview, Start Time, How to Watch, Prediction

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/9/7/16263332/ucf-knights-vs-memphis-tigers-preview-start-time-how-to-watch-prediction-betting-line

UPDATE: This game has now been cancelled due to Hurricane Irma. We wish everyone in Florida the best during this historic storm.

Start Time: As a result of Hurricane Irma, the game’s been moved earlier to Friday, September 8 at 6:30 PM.

TV: ESPNU, not ESPNews as originally scheduled (this was a recent update - even UCF’s game notes are out of date on this).

Live Coverage: AM 740/FM 96.9 The Game, ucfknights.co/FBLiveStats17 for live stats.

Location: Spectrum Stadium, Orlando, FL

Betting: Memphis is ever so-slightly the underdog at +3.

The Series: UCF has a dominating historical lead at 9-1. But the Tigers and the Knights haven’t played since 2013 (Justin Fuente’s second season as the Tiger’s head coach). UCF needed a pair of fumble recoveries for touchdowns in a nine second span to win that game, 24-17. The second one looked like this:

Memphis Outlook: Weather played a major role in the production for the Tigers last week. Rain and wind prevented Memphis from gaining much traction through the air, but the running game picked up the slack. Darrell Henderson and Patrick Taylor each surpassed the 100 yard mark on the ground in the absence of Doroland Dorceus. Under circumstances that made the offense predictable, this duo behind an impressive offensive line gave the Tigers another weapon on offense.

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Quarterback Riley Ferguson wasn’t given many attempts to throw the ball, and produced just 97 yards because of that. This is not indicative of the passing game, and Ferguson will get an opportunity to prove that. His receivers are also dangerous, and we saw what Tony Pollard can do on special teams as well.

The defense was looking to find new starters last week, and will be starting all over at certain spots this week due to injuries. Multiple defensive players sustained injuries that will keep them out of this game or longer. Jackson Dillon will miss this game, and his status for the future is unknown for now. Jared Gentry and Darian Porter were also injured last week, and will miss the remainder of the season. On top of that, Jonathan Wilson must sit out the first half due to a targeting penalty he was assessed in the second half. This is a group that needs to improve, but took big hits to its depth and starting rotations.

Special teams may provide the Knights a scare, as Pollard is one of the best kick returners in the nation. His 99 yard kick return against the Warhawks earned him AAC Special Teams Player of the Week.

The forecast projects rain once again for the Tigers, but that might play into their favor. They already have experience playing in these conditions, and that might be the edge they need.

UCF Outlook: The Knights looked great last week demolishing a clearly-overmatched FIU team. Sophomore quarterback McKenzie Milton displayed significant development from last season, and had an impressive stat line despite how early the game was in hand (16/21, 360 yards passing, 4 TDs). The Panthers aren’t a good team, but the tremendous performance by the Knights’ offense did much to soothe worries about how much better the offense would be than 2016.

This looked scarier for the Knights before the season started, especially given the question marks surrounding the cornerback position. The emergence of Mike Hughes last week - only thirteen days into his tenure with the program - helps solidify a position group that seemed week. Hughes came in after Chris Johnson got burned on a seventy-five yard touchdown pass (it was, in fairness, a perfectly thrown ball), and proved a steady hand at a position that needed one. Unless weather plays a significant role for Memphis (again), expect the UCF secondary to be tested early and often.

The Knights will also benefit from the Tigers’ depleted defense. There’s a great opportunity here for UCF’s young and promising players at the skill positions.

Predictions:

Joey Broback: If the weather results in rain, I like Memphis. UCF struggled to run the ball in good conditions against FIU, and rainy conditions would force them to run more. My answer would change if the was nice, but I’m guessing it will be poor playing conditions once again. Memphis wins 21-17.

Chas Short: I see a UCF win here. I’ve become more secure in how the defense has reloaded and replaced so many of last year’s starters. Memphis’s tighter than expected game last week is probably a bit of an aberration, but I still expect the Knights to be a bit better. I’ll assume it to be a tight game with a lot of offense, and call it 38-35.