Thursday, December 3, 2015

Getting to Know New UCF Head Coach Scott Frost: Five Questions with Addicted to Quack

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/12/3/9837826/getting-to-know-new-ucf-head-coach-scott-frost-five-questions-with

UCF fans are just beginning to get to know new head coach Scott Frost, who comes to the Knights from Oregon where he was extremely successful as the offensive coordinator.
We got together with Joel Gunderson (follow him -- @jgundy85) at the elegantly-named Ducks blog Addicted to Quack to discuss Frost and what Knights fans should expect from him.
1. UCF fans are eager to see someone who can win in-state recruiting battles. How do you view Frost as a recruiter generally? Did he bring in any Florida recruits?
JG: Despite being as far away, geographically, as you can be, Frost actually landed one of the best players out of Florida two years ago - Charles Nelson. Our quarterback, Vernon Adams, has clearly been the MVP - but the best player on the roster, without a doubt, is Nelson. And Frost was the main guy who recruited him.
Part of the reason Frost was so highly regarded as a potential head coach is that players love him. He's young enough to still have cache from his playing days; he's wise enough, having been taught by some of the brightest minds the game has; and he flat-out know how to talk to kids. He was coaching in one of the least fertile recruiting grounds in the country, and still found talent every year. He'll do just fine in Florida. All he needs to run the offense successfully is speed...you guys have that.
2. Obviously Oregon has been very successful offensively with Frost as the OC. How much of that success do you attribute to his influence?
JG: This is the hard question, one which Oregon fans are hotly debating right now. There's still a Chip Kelly-sized cloud hanging over the program here. What that has created is confusion over what the offense is, and whose it is. Clearly, Frost has influenced it. But what has been done - and this is a credit to him - is that the offense has evolved to fit the personnel. When Frost was the receivers coach, and we didn't have a strong quarterback, the offense was run, run, run. When we had a guy by the name of Marcus Mariota at the helm, the playbook was shifted to fit his skills. To say it's all Frost would be misleading, because Oregon a school that takes a little bit from every coach.
Now, one thing to watch for - and I don't want to cause panic - is the trick plays. This season - especially the past two months - there was a huge increase in the amount of trick plays that Oregon ran - and not one of them worked. In fact, in our triple-overtime win at Arizona State, it should have cost us the game. But because Oregon is so tight-lipped, we never got true explanations for why these plays were being called. Boredom? Necessity? We don't know. It didn't feel like Mark Helfrich thing to do, which leaves Frost as the guy in question.
3. It seems at times frost's play calling puzzled Oregon fans. Any specific examples of that come to your mind? Is that a fair concern, do you think?
JG: See above. I mean, it's hard to be critical....Oregon set numerous records with Frost in charge, and even when times were "bad" (by insanely-spoiled Duck fans) the offense was still better than 90% of the country.
Frost thrives when he gets two things: receivers who are willing to block downfield (if that doesn't happen, the offense shuts down); and a quarterback who has the threat to run. He doesn't need a quarterback with 4.4 speed; but if the threat of the run is there, everything opens up.
Frost's play-calling was, really, only in question the second half of this past season. If it was in question before that, it was from a small group who expects Oregon to score on every possession. It's football - other teams are going to stop you from time-to-time. Overall, Frost absolutely knows what he is doing. Did he make some questionable calls this year? Yes. Overall, is it anything to worry about? Not at all.
4. There's always a little uncertainty surrounding a first time head coach. Do you think Frost is ready?
JG: Yes - and I'm going to preface that by saying he's ready for a school like UCF (don't take that the wrong way, and let me explain).
It's no secret that someday, Frost will end up back at Nebraska. He won a title there; he's revered as a hero; and their current coach, Mike Riley (who we all know well around these parts) won't make it long. Frost will be in Lincoln someday. But he's not ready now.
Why is UCF perfect for him? Simple: expectations. UCF has the potential to be a loaded squad, but coming off a 0-12 season, expectations are non-existent. If Frost can come, and in, say, two seasons, turn it around - not unrealistic at all - he'll not only have the experience, but he'll have the respect as a head coach.
Earlier this season, he had a (mini) lash out towards fans. He (correctly) pointed out that most fans who were being critical couldn't even name all 11 positions on the field, and therefore had no reason to be critical. While many agreed with him, that's not something you can do if you're a head coach. Now, he can learn from it.
5. Overall: how'd we do with this hire?
JG: I think it's a home run, honestly. Frost is a star in the making; personality, innovation, energy...he has everything you need to turn around a program. He won't be there long - and that's a good thing for everyone involved. He's going to inject life into the program that wasn't there, even when Blake Bortles was carving up everyone in his path. He has that kind of energy.
His offensive philosophies will fit perfectly with the speed he'll have: open spaces equal lots of points.
In a couple seasons, he'll be the hottest name in the country. When that happens, UCF will be on the map as a destination spot. It's a win-win.

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Analyzing UCF's Hire of Scott Frost

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/12/2/9832682/analyzing-ucfs-hire-of-scott-frost


After a bit of false start, it turns out that Oregon Ducks Offensive Coordinator Scott Frost is in at UCF.
It was widely reported a few days ago that Bowling Green Head Coach Dino Babers was expected to take the job in Orlando (including by the SB Nation Mothership. Uh. Our crytstal ball was murky). Babers denied the reports, leading some to speculate that it was a matter of timing (Babers' buy-out dropped by $100k on December 1, and Bowling Green is playing in the MAC Championship game).
All of this ended up being wrong, of course.
Tuesday morning, the news broke that Frost was hired to steer the Knights out of the colossal wreck that the George O'Leary era had ended in. The hire comes as a surprise: Frost was not among the names reportedly interviewed this past weekend, nor the topic of much speculation (though he was linked to other head coaching gigs, including at Syracuse and Iowa State).
Frost's resume is pretty solid, though brief. He was the starting quarterback on Nebraska's 1997 national title team, spent six years in the NFL, and transitioned into coaching in 2002. He spent time as a graduate assistant at his alma mater and then at Kansas State. In 2007, Frost became the linebackers coach at Northern Iowa and then added "co-defensive coordinator" duties the next year. Both years, Northern Iowa made it deep into the playoffs.
The last six years for Frost were spent coaching at Oregon - three of them as the wide receivers coach during the Chip Kelly era. With Mark Helfrich at the helm, Frost served as the offensive coordinator since 2013.
It's a hire about which Knights fans can be cautiously optimistic. UCF just finished slogging through a winless season, hampered by a defense that was statistically the worst of any FBS program. With Frost, the Ducks ranked sixth this year. In forty games with Frost as the offensive coordinator, Oregon averaged 553 yards per game and 44.8 points per game. One hopes that the track record of excellence on offense will continue at UCF.
Hiring Frost is also a recognition of UCF's desire to restore interest in a program that turned off many fans this year with play that was not merely disastrous but also dreadfully boring. A few days before the announcement, UCF President John Hitt told the Orlando Sentinel:
If you have to lose, would you rather lose 45-44 or 10-9 - and the answer is that people want to see some points scored. Why do you think so many people are running the Baylor-type spread that scores a lot of points? [. . .] ESPN stands for Entertainment and Sports Programming Network. The first word is ‘entertainment' and we're competing for the entertainment dollar with a lot of young people and young families.
For what it's worth, the fun factor is an aspect of this hire that UCF is trying hard to embrace. UCF's social media has been filled with images of Frost looking young (as he is, at 40) and excited. It's a stark contrast to George O'Leary's first year on campus when the UCF sports marketing material emphasized that he was tough, cantankerous, and, for lack of a better word, "shouty."
In many ways, the Frost hire represents an about face from the philosophy that supported the O'Leary hire over a decade ago. O'Leary was a veteran head coach who found his way to UCF after a bit of a disgrace - he was cut loose by Notre Dame after only days on the job for having made false statements on his resume.
Frost is no fall from grace story, but a coach whose star is ascendant now on his first head coaching stop. Unlike O'Leary, who became wedded to UCF, Frost is a coach who might be reasonably expected to move on to a more prominent job if he finds success at UCF. And while O'Leary was known for tough defenses and old school ethos, Frost is progressive in his philosophy on offense.
Plus he's got that whole we're-Oregon-and-we're-exciting-on-offense halo around him (the football-coach equivalent of "new car smell").
There are reasons for Knights fans to temper their optimism, however. Frost's play-calling at times prompted head-scratching at Oregon (though, arguably, this was just the result of a young coordinator still finding his groove). The lack of an obvious connection to the state of Florida is also not happy news for a program eager to start winning some meaningful, in-state recruiting battles. And Frost has no track record as a head coach, not at any level. So while it's not the obvious home run hire (the way that fellow AAC member Houston's pick-up of Tom Herman was last year), there's tremendous possible upside here.
And at least Knights fans can begin to move on after a nightmare season and look again towards the future.

UCF Knights vs. USF Bulls Recap: Bulls Triumph 44-3

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/11/26/9805678/ucf-knights-vs-usf-bulls-recap-bulls-triumph-44-3

It was bad for the Knights. But, mercifully,  the slog to 0-and-12 reached its end as USF crushed UCF in a mostly empty stadium on Thanksgiving night.
When we previewed the game, we asked whether who would have more yards: USF's Marlon Mack (the overwhelming favorite), USF's Quinton Flowers (who got a substantial number of votes) or the entire UCF offense (sigh). It turns out that the smart money was on Quinton Flowers, who ended with 264 total yards (and that was with Steven Bench coming in during garbage time). UCF mustered a mere 203.
As was the case last week against ECU, UCF opened with a decent drive that proved to be about the only functional drive of the The Bulls closed out their season with a huge win over rival UCF, capping their second half surge. Surprising no one, the Knights staggered to the end of their winless season. night. QB Justin Holman looked strong initially, including connecting with redshirt freshman Tre'quan Smith on a beautiful pass. And on fourth and seven, Smith had a beautiful diving catch to extend drive deep into USF territory. But the Knights couldn't score a touchdown, ultimately settling for the field goal by Matthew Wright.
It was all USF from there.
The Bulls responded with a drive in which they easily carved up the Knights, especially with USF QB Quinton Flowers making excellent choices on the zone read. The drive appeared to be blunted with an illegal touching penalty by USF, Flowers getting stuffed, and an incomplete pass. But of course this was the UCF defense. On fourth and eight, Flowers threw a twenty-eight yard pass and followed that with a touchdown pass to Barr.
The Knights promptly went three and out, though the defense followed by forcing USF to punt (helped quite a bit by USF penalties). UCF bookended that decent stand with another three and out, however, and the Bulls returned to form on the next drive, which features some great runs out of the diamond formation. Flowers would add his second touchdown pass of the night to put the Bulls up 14-3.
After a brief flirtation with moving the ball, the UCF offense again flopped badly. On third down Holman threw a pick over the middle. USF again tore through the uninspired Knights defense and Quinton Flowers added a touchdown on the ground.
On the next drive, Smith had - again - a highlight reel catch in which he went up for the ball, got hit, flipped head over feet, and somehow held on to the ball:


The drive stalled subsequently, of course. But Smith's play was the lone bright spot for the Knights and ended with seven catches for 102 yards (making him the only Knight with multiple catches on the evening).
The Bulls poured it on after that. USF made good use of the time remaining on the clock and ended the half by tacking on a field goal.
Things looked no better for the Knights in the second half. Flowers added his second rushing touchdown on the opening drive of the half. And after UCF turned it over on downs, Flowers threw a twenty-six yard touchdown pass to Price. The Bulls would also add a pair of field goals.
With the easy win, the Bulls' hopes to win the AAC East remain alive. If Temple stumbles, USF will have a berth in the AAC Championship Game.

Central Florida Knights vs. South Florida Bulls: Preview, TV, Streaming, Start Time, Prediction

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/11/25/9801416/central-florida-knights-vs-south-florida-bulls-preview-tv-streaming


Start Time: 7:30 PM EST, Thursday, November 26
Location: Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando, Florida.
TV: ESPN
Streaming: WatchESPN
Live Stats: Here
Series: South Florida leads 4-2, but UCF has won the two most recent meetings.

What a difference a year makes.
In last season's iteration of the War on I-4, the Central Florida Knights blanked the South Florida Bulls in a 16-0 victory, marking the first time that the Bulls had been shut out at home.
Fast forward to this year, where you have a complete reversal of fortune.  The Bulls (7-4) enter tomorrow's primetime ESPN matchup winners of three straight (six of seven overall) and need a win plus a Temple loss for a spot in the AAC Championship Game.  On the other side, you have the 0-11 UCF Knights, who have looked hapless all season long.  A rash of injuries and roster turnover has led to much of the problems for the Knights, who can't seem to catch a break.
So, with the Bulls rolling and UCF just trying to make it to the end of the season, should we expect an easy USF win or can the Knights pull themselves together long enough to spoil their in-state rival's championship run?
UCF Outlook:
Hey, look at UCF getting two straight ESPN primetime games!  Unfortunately for the Knights, the results will probably look a lot like last week's beat down against ECU. The Knights brought their particular brand of ineptitude against the Pirates, getting badly outgained 619 to 232.  They scored on their opening drive to go up 7-0 on ECU, but then the wheels came off.  The Pirates scored 44 unanswered points to cruise to the win, but the loss wasn't the only one on the night for UCF. Justin Holman sprained his ankle and is questionable tomorrow against the Bulls, which is par for the course for UCF.  Without Holman, the Knights will be forced to go with either redshirt freshman Tyler Harris or Bo Schneider at quarterback.  Harris was bad against ECU, going 2-12 for 21 yards before being replaced by Schneider, who completed a grand total of zero passes.  Whoever gets the start under center, they should probably get the ball to Tre'Quan Smith as much as possible.  Smith has been the Knights' best weapon this season, compiling 45 catches for 622 yards and four touchdowns.
Even if by some miracle the Knights find a scoring punch tomorrow, the defense is won't be able to hold off the Bulls.  The Knights have allowed an obscene amount of points and yards on the season, with opponents averaging 37.1 points and 465 yards per game.  That's bad news against the red hot Bulls, whose one two punch of Marlon Mack and Quinton Flowers can run over even a stout defense.
USF Outlook:
Over the past three games, the Bulls have totally shut down ECU, Temple and Cincinnati en route to a three game winning streak.  They choked out the Pirate offense in a rainstorm in Greenville, followed that up with a signature win at home over #21 Temple, and then completely demolished Cincinnati last week, leading 51-3 at the half before winning 65-27.
Mack and Flowers have gotten most of the praise and attention during the streak, and rightfully so with their numbers.  However, the USF defense has been the lynchpin to their success.  The Bulls held the Pirates to just 17 points and 62 rushing yards, played the highly rated Temple defense to a draw in their win over the Owls, and totally shut down a high powered Cincinnati offense early on, forcing six Bearcat turnovers to seize momentum.
USF's front seven, led by Auggie Sanchez (96 total tackles), Bruce Hector (4 sacks) and Eric Lee (9 TFL), is playing lights out right now.  With the front seven living in the UCF backfield, Jamie Byrd and the rest of the Bulls' secondary should have a pretty easy time cleaning up after them.
Prediction
The Bulls won't need anywhere close to the type of effort we've become accustomed to seeing from them tomorrow against the punchless Knights, but that doesn't mean they won't be ready to play.  Head coach Willie Taggart has done a fabulous job of keeping his team focused on the task at hand, which has them on the doorstep of the AAC Championship Game.  The Bulls have shown that they're more than capable of taking away what the opposition does best (which in the case of the Knights is nothing), while simultaneously being overwhelming on offense.  With the USF defense able to completely shut down the UCF offense and Mack and Flowers running and throwing at will against UCF's porous defense, the Bulls will get revenge for last season's shut out with one of their own tomorrow.

South Florida 56 - Central Florida 0

ECU-UCF Recap: Pirates Bury Knights, 44-7

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/11/19/9767712/ecu-ucf-recap-pirates-bury-knights-44-7


On a rainy Orlando night in front of a mostly empty stadium, the ECU Pirates snapped their three game losing streak and UCF re-affirmed its position as the least watchable team in the FBS.
ECU discovered the simplest way to revive an uninspiring offense: play a game against the poor Knights. Pirates QB Blake Kemp and WR Isaiah Jones got anything they wanted against an atrocious UCF defense that never mustered a pass rush, constantly missed tackles, and collapsed totally in the secondary.
By the end of the game, it was hard to remember that there was a time when the Knights had briefly led. UCF's opening drive started scary with a fumble by Holman that the Knights recovered but it ended with a touchdown catch by redshirt freshman Tre'Quan Smith (who is enjoying arguably the best season by a freshman WR in school history).The drive was helped by Holman taking advantage of the free play (something he's historically done a very good job of) on an ECU offside penalty with a long pass to Jordan Franks.
And that was mostly it for the Knights.
Blake Kemp promptly responded by carving up the young and dumb UCF secondary with a nine play 81 yard drive ending in a touchdown pass to WR Brandon Bishop. On the subsequent kickoff return, UCF's Tristan Payton took the ball out of the end zone and fumbled shortly before the thirty. ECU - of course - recovered. Minutes later, Kemp threw a touchdown pass to Isaiah Jones in the corner of the endzone.
UCF did have a brief flirtation with - you know - doing something. Later in the first quarter, UCF QB Justin Holman threw a beautiful pass to Payton for what would have been a touchdown if not for the egregious holding penalty by Tate Hernley.
In the second quarter, things really collapsed for the Knights. Kemp threw another touchdown pass. ECU kicked its first field goal. And Pirate RB Chris Hairston had a tremendous touchdown run in which he eluded five flailing UCF tacklers. In between all of that, UCF's terrible injury luck once again reared its ugly head. Holman suffered a high ankle sprain and was replaced at QB by redshirt freshman Tyler Harris.
Harris was utterly ineffective, going an abysmal 2/12 for 21 yards (he would eventually be replaced by Bo Schneider in the fourth quarter. Schneider did not complete a pass).
The second half started with a little bit of excitement for Knights fans when UCF beautifully executed an onside kick. But with Harris at the helm, the Knights failed to capitalize on the good field position. The Pirates tacked on 13 points in the third quarter, including another touchdown catch by Isiah Jones.
Oh. And there was another UCF fumble on a kickoff return, this time by Blake Tiralosi.
ECU could have made things even worse, but had a couple of touchdowns called back for penalties. Even the lopsided final score of 44-7 fails to adequately capture just how badly UCF performed and just how thoroughly ECU dominated the game. ECU's leading wide receiver Isaiah Jones had more receiving yards and more touchdowns than UCF's entire team did. And Hairston ran for more than UCF's entire team did. All told, the Pirates outgained the Knights to the tune of 619 to 232 total yards.
The Pirates should celebrate a well-delivered clobbering. UCF, meanwhile, limps to its season finale against rival USF.

UCF Knights v. ECU Pirates: Preview, TV, Radio, Betting Line, Start Time, Prediction

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/11/18/9752816/ucf-knights-v-ecu-pirates-preview-tv-radio-betting-line-start-time

The last time we saw the East Carolina Pirates (4-6, 2-4 AAC), they were stumbling around the Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium turf in an ugly 22-17 loss to South Florida.  While they made it close in the second half against the Bulls, the Pirates could not overcome a horrible start.  The offense bottomed out in the first half, accumulating only 29 yards at halftime before finishing with a total of 220 yards on the night.
Luckily, ECU had a bye last week, so they've had two weeks to try to sort out whatever issues they have on offense.  Then again, the Pirates have looked so discombobulated at times, it remains to be seen if two weeks was long enough to work through the myriad of issues they have on offense.
UCF (0-10, 0-6 AAC) also had the bye week and a little bit of an opportunity to get some players healthy. Not that this ought to matter much. While ECU is a team in chaos after dropping its last three games, the Pirates should be more than a match for the staggering disaster UCF calls a football team.
Start time: Thursday, November 19, 2015 at 7:30 PM.
Location: Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando, FL.
TV: ESPN.
Radio: 96.9-FM & 740-AM - Orlando.
Betting Line: ECU is a fifteen point favorite.
The Series: ECU leads the series 9-4. The Knights have won two straight, including 2014's classic in which the Knights grabbed a share of the AAC Conference Championship on "O Holy Knight":
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That's the last football game UCF won, by the way. December 4, 2014 was a long time ago.
ECU Outlook: The central issue for the Pirate offense is a dismal quarterback situation.  James Summers was at the forefront of the USF debacle, with his slow start contributing to the overall malaise in the first half.  His final numbers (14-22, 158 yards and 20 carries, 42 yards, 2 TD) were decent, but his first half performance is more representative of the recent struggles of the offense over the past several games.
Summers has the ability to get the offense moving, especially with his feet.  However, the run game has also been MIA during the course of the Pirates' current three game skid.  ECU had only 62 rushing yards total against USF, with Summers (42 yards) and Chris Hairston (24 yards) accounting for all of the yardage.  Those two will again be looked on to provide some sort of output against UCF, but if things continue the way they've been going the past few games, don't expect much of anything from ECU on the ground.
By comparison, the passing game has been better, although not without its issues as well.  Summers has been the designated starter, despite completing 57% of his passes and throwing no touchdowns in the last three games.  Backup Blake Kemp was a threat earlier in the season, but inconsistency lost him the job.  For better or worse, it looks like Ruffin McNeill is sticking with Summers.
It's a shame the Pirate offense has been playing so poorly, because the defense has done more than its fair share to keep them in the game.  They've allowed a good deal of yardage, but have done a good job of limiting big plays.  A prime example occurred against USF, when they held Quinton Flowers and Marlon Mack at bay for much of that game.  We saw how explosive those two were against Temple, so that gives us an idea of what the ECU defense can do.
UCF Outlook: Look, Interim head coach Danny Barrett is probably going winless during his tenure (just like the Knights' last interim head coach, Alan Gooch, did back in 2003). UCF fans should have no illusions about the Knights' chances against even a team as inconsistent as ECU.
But we'd be remiss to not at least acknowledge that UCF has been able to do some things better in recent weeks. The offense has picked up a bit, especially the run game. Against their two most recent opponents Tulsa and Cincinnati, UCF had 321 rushing yards. And that's much better than the mere 466 yards the Knights had accumulated on the ground over the first eight games of the season.
There's also an opportunity for the Knights young wide receivers to make a bit of noise and get us looking towards the future. True freshman Tristan Payton and redshirt freshman Tre'Quan Smith should be healthy after having been dinged up two weeks ago at Tulsa. Watching Smith establish himself has been one of the (few) joys for Knights fans this year. Going into the game, he's tied with J.J. Worton for most receptions by a freshman in UCF history (with 41) and has the second most receiving yards (572) among UCF freshman all-time. Smith can be a special player, as demonstrated by his 131 yard outing (plus a touchdown) against Tulsa which featured this catch:
So.
More of that, please.
Prediction: Both teams are coming off of a bye, so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor. Given that both ECU and UCF have struggled offensively, don’t expect many points or big plays. In the end, the Pirate defense will be able to hold off UCF, while the offense will be able to pull itself together just long enough to get the win.
ECU 24 – UCF 21

Recap: Tulsa Gives UCF Hope, Slams The Door Late To Win 45-30.

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/11/7/9688006/recap-tulsa-gives-ucf-hope-slams-the-door-late-to-win-45-30

UCF Knights v. Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Preview, TV, Radio, Betting Line, Start Time

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/11/6/9681580/ucf-knights-v-tulsa-golden-hurricane-preview-tv-radio-betting-line


Much of the UCF (0-9, 0-5 AAC) chatter this week has been about the Knights' stellar graduation success rate of 93% overall, and 90% for the football program (both numbers are good for #1 among FBS public schools).
That this has seemingly been more of a focus than the upcoming game should tell us something about the level of enthusiasm for what ought to be a loss against Tulsa (4-4, 1-3 AAC) en route to a winless season.
But hey, the football program is at least successful academically, and that's been a great legacy of the George O'Leary era.
The match-up against Tulsa is the Knights' last road game of the season, so it will be much easier for Knights fans to get to watch the rest of the slog to 0-12 in person. Yaaay.
I kid, I kid. Seriously, we'll all miss this when the season ends and the yearly football drought begins.
Start time: 12 PM EST, Saturday November 7.
Location: Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK
TV: ESPNews
Radio: 96.9 FM & 740 AM - Orlando.
Betting Line: Tulsa is a 17 or 17.5 point favorite, depending on where you look. The smart prediction is that Tulsa will cover.
The Series: 5-3. There's history here given that both the Knights and the Golden Hurricane were in Conference USA. UCF and Tulsa played three times for Conference USA Championships, with Tulsa winning two of those championships.
The Golden Hurricane are undefeated against UCF on their home turf, but hey, the Knights won last year in Orlando 31-7.
UCF Outlook: I mean, it's perpetually terrible, right? UCF is coming off two of the worst losses in program in history. The team's problem areas are numerous, and there was never going to be a reasonable chance for interim Head Coach Danny Barrett to solve them.
But - if you're looking for signs of life for the future, there are perhaps a couple to be found. Last week, the Knights finally got something out of the moribund running game. The offensive line, especially on the right side, did a very fine job of run blocking. The Knights totaled 212 yards on the ground against Cincinnati, only the second time the team had exceeded 100 yards rushing. Much of that was attributable to redshirt freshman C.J. Jones who ran for 123 of them and the Knights' sole touchdown of the day.
So keep an eye out to see whether that success can be replicated or improved on against Tulsa. There haven't been many signs of progress to cheer UCF fans, and it would be nice if the performance against Cincinnati was not an aberration.
Tulsa Outlook: The Golden Hurricane have clearly improved this year under head coach Philip Montgomery, who has already doubled their win total from last year. And I tend to think that the Golden Hurricane are a better team on the field than their record and statistical ranks would suggest. Three of Tulsa's losses were to very good teams: remaining AAC unbeaten teams Houston and Memphis, as well as 7-1 Oklahoma.
On Saturday, expect the Tulsa passing attack, led by Keyarris Garret, to tear through the UCF secondary, which just yielded 489 yards through the air and 6 passing TDs to Cincinnati.  Garrett has been a huge part of Tulsa's offense. The senior wide receiver ranks fourth nationally for receiving yards (992) and fifth in yards per game (124). And though ultimately it was a losing effort, he played extremely well against Memphis, ringing up an NCAA season high 268 receiving yards and three long touchdown catches. And, worse for UCF fans and the Knights' poor secondary, the rest of the Tulsa receiving corps is solid too. Four different Tulsa wide receivers have had a 100+ yard game so far this season.
Expect a Tulsa victory to bring the Golden Hurricane close to evening up the series.

Cincinnati Savages UCF 52-7: Recap and Analysis

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/10/31/9650850/cincinnati-savages-ucf-insert-recap-and-analysis


In their first ever meeting, the Cincinnati Bearcats crushed the UCF Knights 52-7. No surprises here: the Knights are as bad without George O'Leary this season as they were with him.
Dull as this game was for Knights fans, at least it was played on Halloween. I say this because the Knights staggered around the field like zombies. And I'm not talking about your modern day, "fast" zombies. I mean your old school zombies. More Night of the Living Dead than 28 Days Later. Zombies lurching back and forth, pieces of their rotting bodies just sloughing off, probably shedding a limb or two periodically.
That's what we got to see today.
The Knights opened with an ineffective drive before punting... and promptly gave up their first touchdown of the day when Kyle Gibson got injured and fell down, uncovering Chris Moore for the easy touchdown catch. That was a two play drive by the way: a 43 yard pass with a 15 yard penalty by UCF tacked on the end, then the touchdown pass. It took twenty-five seconds.
UCF responded with what had seemed to be the rare productive drive in which the Knights moved the ball both passing and rushing. The drive fizzled following an aborted trick play (an end around to Nick Patti who looked to pass, but no one was open) and an incomplete pass on third down. Then Matt Wright, who has been decently reliable, doinked a 34-yard FG attempt off the right upright.
There were opportunities for UCF to stymie the following drive by the Bearcats, which included an unsuccessful attempt at a double pass (because if you're playing UCF, why not?). But the Knights gave up a fourth down conversion, and Kiel ended up throwing a 59 yard touchdown pass when the UCF blitz failed to reach him in time.
UCF's next drive, like so many this year, ended in a turnover. Justin Holman over-threw a deep ball directly into the hands of the waiting Cincinnati defensive back. Three plays later, Kiel had thrown his third TD pass of the first quarter.
Kiel left the game early in the second quarter after going 7/7 for 158 yards and 3 TDs (which is a QBR of 431), yielding time to the backup QB Hayden Moore. It is a frightening thing when a team is so bad that garbage time begins in the early second quarter, but there you go. That's UCF this year.
Hey, Shaquill Griffin got another pick though. Off Moore. In that early second quarter garbage time. And it didn't translate to points.
Sigh.
Moore would soon get his first touchdown pass of the day, however, and UCF would not get too much done the rest of the half, either. With 4:04 to go in the half, a Cincinnati running back Tion Green picked up a touchdown on an seven yard run and made the score 35-0 following the extra point.
UCF almost had a productive drive to end the half . . . but the Knights couldn't score on fourth and goal from inside the five.
For reasons unknown, Cincinnati Head Coach Tommy Tuberville put Kiel back in to start the third quarter. I suppose it's not actually much of a risk given that the UCF defense could not get any pressure on the QB. Kiel quickly completed two more passes. The second one was for 78 yards and a touchdown to Johnny Holton. Really. It was the Bearcats' third touchdown drive of less than a minute.
Emphasizing UCF's utter futility, the Knights were again denied points on their first drive of the third quarter, when Wright again doinked the FG attempt, this time off the left upright.
What followed was a mercifully clock chewing drive capped by another Kiel touchdown pass, his fifth of the day. And so the Knights stood at 49-0 with time left in the third quarter. Kiel's day was really done this time, and the Cincinnati signal caller ended up 15/15 for 319 yards.
The Knights would eventually get on the board in the fourth quarter with redshirt freshman running back C.J. Jones's touchdown run to make it 52-7. It's a little frightening to think things could have even been worse for UCF, but Cincinnati went for it on fourth and five in the red zone which gave the Knights an opportunity to force the turnover on downs (which they did, oddly enough).
Were there any bright spots for the Knights today?
Maybe a little bit. A very little bit. The offensive line, especially the right side, did a decent job of run blocking. The Knights totaled 212 rushing yards, and Jones had some strong runs for a total of 123 yards and the touchdown, including runs of 50 and 20 yards. None of this was really relevant given the game situation the Knights quickly found themselves in, but hey raw numbers are nice.

UCF Knights v. Cincinnati Bearcats: Preview, TV, Radio, Start Time, Betting Line

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/10/30/9641790/ucf-knights-v-cincinnati-bearcats-preview-tv-radio-start-time-betting

The Danny Barrett era, such as it is, begins at noon for UCF (0-8, 0-4 AAC) against the Bearcats (4-3, 1-2 AAC). The last time the Knights had an interim head coach, it was Alan Gooch, the year was 2003, and the Knights went 0-2 to end their season in the MAC (that'd be two conferences ago, of course).
Knights fans are hungry for some reason to be optimistic, but I hope no one is naïve enough to believe that George O'Leary's resignation will cause any meaningful immediate improvement. There are just so, so, so many problems with this Knights team. Expect the Bearcats to cruise tomorrow.
Start time: Sat., Oct. 31 at Noon EST
TV: ESPNews
Location: Nippert Stadium - Cincinnati, Ohio
Radio: 96.9-FM & 740-AM - Orlando
Betting Line: UCF is a 27.5 point underdog. Ooof.
The Series: You're about to watch the start of it. UCF and Cincinnati have never played. Before the season, this looked to be one of the most interesting AAC east division games - both UCF and Cincinnati had been excellent in conference the past two years, with the Knights winning the conference championship outright in 2013 and the Knights sharing the title with Cincinnati (and Memphis) last year.
Unfortunately, the Knights have tanked this year and there's no end to the losing in sight. This once-anticipated match-up should be a beatdown in the Bearcats' favor.
Cincinnati Outlook: Cincinnati has been a bit underwhelming this season. Heck, our Underdog Dynasty preseason poll had them number one in the east (though we had UCF number two, so shows what we know). The Bearcats have shown that they're not in the AAC's top tier this year, having lost to both Temple and Memphis. But they're a fine team, and more than capable of blasting a bad UCF squad.
Expect Cincinnati's offense to standout in this game. Cincinnati is averaging 555.6 yards per game. Incidentally, that's more than double UCF's average offensive output (257.6 yards per game). While the Knights' defense has a pulse, Cincinnati should be able to contain the Knights' poor offense and quickly outpace them.
Unlike UCF's Justin Holman, Cincinnati QB Gunner Kiel has been excellent after returning from injury against UConn last week. Kiel went 26/35 for 327 yards, two passing touchdowns, and added a third touchdown on the ground. I don't expect the result against UCF to be much different.
UCF Outlook: Last week, the Knights showed a glimmer of hope against Houston - moving the ball on offense, making plays and containing Greg Ward Jr. on defense . . . for a bit. Then it was a collapse to end the half, and things got worse from there. I hope I sound realistic and not pessimistic: but there are still no reasonable grounds to believe that Knights will notch a win (not just against the Bearcats, there's no particular reason they should notch a win at all this season).
Sitting at 0-8, it's hard to find good things to say about the Knights. But the defense has had some guys make plays this year -  Chequan Burkett, Shaquill Griffin, and T.J. Mutcherson come to mind. Oddly enough, the Knights' defense is statistical very similar to the Bearcats, with the Knights only giving up a few more yards and points per game on average. But the Knights desperately need help from the offense to be able to stay in games, and no help seems forthcoming.
Interim head coach Danny Barrett is a Cincinnati alumnus, which should add some interest to what ought to be another painful game for UCF. Though Barrett v. Tuberville is a far cry from the more interesting O'Leary v. Tuberville match-up we had hoped to see.

Ozymandias: A Retrospective on the Resignation of UCF Knights Head Coach George O'Leary

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/10/26/9613590/the-resignation-of-ucf-head-coach-george-oleary-a-retrospective

I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear:
'My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look upon my works, ye mighty, and despair!'
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands stretch far away."

- Percy Bysshe Shelley, Ozymandias (1818)
Shelley's point was this: achievement is impermanent, and time has a way of making empires fade.
If you told me before the season began that it would be George O'Leary's last season at UCF, I would have believed it. The retirement rumors had long swirled and were at a fever pitch in 2014 when some claimed that O'Leary would retire following the Penn State game in Ireland. If you told me that he would leave after presiding over a colossal wreck of a season, sitting at 0-8, I would have been shocked.
O'Leary leaves a complicated legacy. He built this UCF program, leading it to virtually every meaningful achievement. The Knights' first bowl appearance. Their first bowl win. A Fiesta Bowl win. Their first national ranking. Their first top ten ranking. On O'Leary's watch, UCF built an on-campus stadium and jumped conferences twice.[1] He coached the Knights to four conference championships: two in Conference USA and two in the American Athletic Conference. He built winning teams from unheralded recruits, putting players like Blake Bortles, Breshad Perriman, and Latavius Murray into the NFL.
And he bookended all of this with winless seasons. O'Leary went 0-11 in 2004, his first season with the Knights. Even if the team can notch a win this year - which seems very unlikely - O'Leary won't be wearing the headset for it.
What happened off the field also complicates O'Leary's legacy. Before UCF, he spent a total of five days as the head coach of Notre Dame before being fired for making false statements on his resume. O'Leary described it this way:
Many years ago, as a young, married father, I sought to pursue my dream as a football coach. In seeking employment, I prepared a resume that contained inaccuracies regarding my completion of course work for a master's degree and also my level of participation in football at my alma mater. These misstatements were never stricken from my resume or biographical sketch in later years. During my coaching career, I believe I have been hired because of the success of my players on the field and the evaluation of my peers. However, these misstatements have resurfaced and become a distraction and embarrassment to the University of Notre Dame, an institution I dearly love.


And of course, this meant that UCF was able to get a coach who would have been otherwise inaccessible, and at a bargain price.  Over the years, UCF proved loyal to O'Leary - even in difficult times and rocky seasons - and O'Leary reciprocated.
Though O'Leary was fired in ignominy from Notre Dame, the UCF sports marketing department embraced a campaign that focused on the entity of the Knight's new coach, casting him as a heel and old school tough guy. The 2004 UCF football poster featured a close-up of a shouting O'Leary and the unfortunate phrase, "Change is nothing to FEAR. The Coach, now that's another story." This, in a year in which the Knights would end up losing every game. Commercials highlighting O'Leary were also . . . awkward.
It was during George O'Leary's tenure that player Ereck Plancher collapsed and following conditioning drills in March 2008. Plancher's death, determined by the Orange County medical examiner to have resulted from sickle cell trait complications, was an absolute tragedy. Extensive civil litigation followed, and though O'Leary was not a defendant, he was a prominent figure in the case. The jury found that UCF's Athletic Association was negligent in Plancher's death. UCF ultimately prevailed on a sovereign immunity issue, and UCFAA's liability was reduced to $200,000.
O'Leary's often candid comments to the media seemed sometimes refreshing, and at other times remarkably tone deaf, especially when cast in the light of the Plancher tragedy. He drew criticism for his statement that "There is no question the kids today are softer than kids in the past, in my mind. I think it comes from too much parental babying . . . ."
Still, O'Leary's emphasis on discipline and academics were praiseworthy (and, in truth, not praised nearly enough). In O'Leary's twelve years, there were few player arrests. And Knights earned degrees. UCF had a 90 percent graduation success rate in 2014 - third among public universities, first in the state of Florida, and first in the AAC. The football program improved its graduation success rate the last eight years in a row.
His influence on the fledgling AAC is significant. The Knights won the first conference title in 2013 outright and shared the second with Cincinnati and Memphis last year. The tremendous Fiesta Bowl win over Baylor gave the conference instant credibility in its inaugural year.
This year has been an unqualified failure on the field as the Knights sank to a spectacularly bad 0-8, including a loss to FCS Furman (the Knight's first loss to an FCS or Division II program since leaving Division II themselves). And for a coach who achieved so much success, it's unfortunate that it ends like this. More so considering the revelation that he wanted to retire following the Fiesta Bowl win and was talked back into returning for two more seasons. O'Leary could have easily gone out on the high note, but it wasn't to be. The disappointment of this season would not sting so badly had O'Leary not brought the program to the heights he did. He is the reason the UCF program has the privilege of having real expectations.
O'Leary is in the unusual position of having resigned twice from UCF this year - once from his gig as the interim athletic director, and now from the head coaching job. His choice to step away now will draw comparisons to Steve Spurrier's recent mid-season resignation. And like Spurrier, O'Leary's choice to end things now will help the program he put on the map move on to the future.
So long, George O'Leary. And thanks for the memories. May you have a better fate than Shelley's statue.
* * *



[1] Though the invitation to Conference USA came in 2003 before O'Leary was hired.

Sunday, October 25, 2015

UCF Knights Coaching Search and Candidates: An Initial Reaction

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/10/25/9611786/ucf-knights-coaching-search-and-candidates-an-initial-reaction


It's an unusual circumstance to resign twice in rapid succession. Two weeks ago, George O'Leary resigned from his gig as UCF's interim athletic director to focus on his work as head coach of the football team. Now, O'Leary has resigned the head coach gig in the wake of a brutal loss to the Houston Cougars.
The Knights now sit at 0-8, with no reason to believe that the team will notch a win in what remains of the season.
Understandably, UCF fans are eager to turn to the question of who will occupy the head coaching job on a non-interim basis (QB Coach Danny Barrett holds the reins for now). At this early stage, most of the musings at this point are necessarily speculative.
So let's speculate, shall we?
Danny Barrett. If you're the interim guy, you've got to be at least mentioned in the conversation. Still, it seems unlikely that Barrett would get the nod. This feels more like a "caretaker" choice, similar to the Knights last interim coach, Alan Gooch (Gooch presided over two losses following the firing of Mike Kruczek in 2003, and was replaced by O'Leary in 2004). Barrett is in his fifth year on the UCF staff, having coached the RBs for four years and the QBs this season.
It would not be a flashy hire, but it wouldn't be outlandish either. Barrett has head coaching experience in the CFL with the Saskatchewan Roughriders (six years worth of it). Promoting internally would be consistent with what has often felt like a philosophy of internal loyalty at UCF. Still, it's difficult to believe that the Knights could make enough noise with Barrett at the helm to give him a serious crack at being hired as head coach.
Brent Key.
[Update: UCF has now confirmed that Brent Key will not be the next head coach. And UCF will need to pay him $700k over twenty-four months as a result. Sign].
Nope. Nope. Nope. If you're on staff and don't get named the interim guy, you're not going to get the job on a permanent basis either. And in some ways, it's too bad. Brent Key was clearly being groomed as the George O'Leary successor, and had been tremendously loyal to GOL and the UCF program. It was obvious going into this season following much staff shuffling that this was going to be Key's audition (a fact reinforced when GOL accepted the interim AD job, necessarily requiring more delegation). And despite many circumstances outside of Key's control (i.e., the terrible injury luck), that audition was a flop. Having tethered his star to GOL's ultimately ended up being the wrong call for Key.
It would be nice if loyalty, passion, and sacrifice were enough. Unfortunately, they are not. Thanks for your service Brent Key. Next man up.
Tom Herman, Justin Fuente, Matt Rhule. No, no, and no. As long as we're eliminating candidates, let's get this out of the way (because we know someone out there is curious): none of the ascendant coaching stars in the AAC are coming over. I know the Knights owned the AAC last year and in 2013 (winning the inaugural championship outright in 2013 and sharing that honor in 2014). And I get that UCF stomped Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl in 2013. But these would still be fundamentally lateral moves to a team in disarray. These are not options.
Mario Cristobal. I am firmly convinced that the Knights should jump on Cristobal. Hiring a position coach (Cristobal is the offensive line coach at Bama) sounds strange only to someone who has not followed Cristobal's career. He's (relatively) young, and certainly energetic, which presents a break from what has felt like the aging and decay of the GOL era this season.
Cristobal was the head coach at FIU from 2007-2012. He was the program architect, taking the Golden Panthers to back-to-back bowl games and a milestone road win at Louisville in a year when the Cardinals would go on to be Big East co-champs. After a bit of backsliding, FIU tossed him out in what was an undoubtedly rash move.
He's a Florida guy, which is appealing for a program that has seldom succeeded in capitalizing on Florida recruiting. In addition to his experience at FIU, Cristobal was a player at UM and also had two head coaching stints with the Canes as well. Cristobal is a heck of a recruiter and also has a track record of identifying and pursuing the kind of under-recruited guys who can become stars (T.Y. Hilton, anyone?).
Here is where I won't even pretend to be dispassionate: Cristobal is the guy the Knights need. Let's go and get him.
And let's do it before UM does.
Lane Kiffin or your favorite mercenary of choice. With his reputation, former Oakland Raiders head coach, Vols head coach, and Trojans head coach Lane Kiffin inevitably will be a name tossed out there by the commentariat. But hiring Kiffin (or any other candidate who would obviously view the job as a stepping stone) seems inconsistent with the UCF approach, which seems to be focused on a head coach who would stay at the program for a significant period of time (thus the hire of a disgraced GOL in 2004, and the unsuccessful attempt to anoint Key his successor).
That's not to say it's a bad approach necessarily, just not what I would predict UCF to do. Heck, Houston has done pretty well with hiring guys who have gotten hot and moved on (Art Briles, Kevin Sumlin, and presumably Tom Herman will follow this pattern). But consistency has seemed more appealing to the UCF athletic department.
Will Muschamp or Al Golden? Heck, when I started writing this post, Al Golden still had a job. It's natural to speculate about the two most recent head football coaches at more established programs in the state of Florida.
Muschamp's tenure at Florida was absolutely dire and characterized by stellar defenses and an offense that played not to lose. He's a great recruiter and a tremendous defensive coach. If he learned from his mistakes at UF, he could make a very fine head coach (and I expect him to get the chance again). Would he want to leave the DC role at Auburn after a year to be a head coach again? Could UCF make a serious play for him? It would be an interesting hire, but would probably leave Knights fans with some misgivings.
Al Golden: no. Please no. While there's some inevitable hey-he-was-the-head-coach-at-a-big-Florida-program appeal, he failed to accomplish anything of note at UM. Golden failed to win enough home state recruiting battles, sometimes seeming to look too much to the northeast (sound familiar, Knights fans?).
Ultimately, it's hard to guess where UCF might ultimately go with its coaching search. It's just been so long since the Knights were looking to hire a head coach, and the program has progressed far beyond where it was at that time.
For now, Knights fans are eager to have something to talk about besides this disastrous, winless season.

Houston Cougars overcome slow start to crush UCF Knights, 59-10

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/10/24/9607658/houston-cougars-ucf-knights-recap

UCF Knights vs. Houston Cougars: Preview, TV, Radio, Start Time, Betting Line

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/10/23/9601490/ucf-knights-vs-houston-cougars-preview-tv-radio-start-time-betting

It's winless UCF's second consecutive match-up against an undefeated team.  The Houston Cougars travel to UCF for the Knights' homecoming game ranked #21 in the AP poll and #22 in the Coaches poll.
The Cougars are red hot and they're going to do bad, bad, things to the Knights tomorrow.
Start time: Sat., Oct. 24 at Noon.
TV: ESPNews
Location: Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando, FL
Radio: 96.9-FM & 740-AM - Orlando
Betting Line: Houston is a 22.5 point favorite.
The Series: UCF has been historically dominant against Houston, and owns a 5-1 record. The match-up has been mostly a tight one, with five of the games decided by seven points or less. The last two games in the series have had ridiculously tight endings.
In 2013, UCF edged Houston thanks to a pass break up in the end zone on fourth down:
Last year's game had an even wilder ending. Brandon Alexander forced Houston QB Greg Ward Jr.'s fumble through the end zone for a touchback, preventing what would have been the Cougar's potentially game-tying touchdown:
Well. Brandon Alexander isn't here anymore.
Houston Outlook: We don't know what George O'Leary is going to say to his team prior to their matchup with the Cougars on Saturday, but whatever it is won't be enough.   The Cougars demolished Tulane 42-7 last week, scoring a touchdown on the first play of the game and cruising from there.  Granted, at 2-4, the Green Wave far from what you would call "respectable", but the fact remains that Houston took care of business.  Now, UH gets to face (read: feast) an 0-7 UCF team that unofficially leads the nation in lowlights.
Not that the Cougs need any help.  Houston is ranked fifth nationally in points (45.7) and yards (554.7) per game, while allowing only 21.3 points and 375.7 yards per game.  The offense also averages 6.6 yards per play, good enough for 14th in the nation.  Quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. has been central to Houston's success this season, accounting for 23 total touchdowns (14 rushing, nine passing) so far.  He's completing 71% of his passes, totaling 1524 yards and is averaging 6.78 yards per carry on the ground.  Ward, Jr. and the rest of the Cougar offense is more than capable of steamrolling the Knights, especially on the ground.
Defensively, the Cougs have the nation's leading tackler in linebacker Elandon Roberts.  Roberts has 50 total tackles through six games.  While the Cougar defense has struggled at times, don't expect that to continue against UCF, who ranks dead last nationally in total offense and averages only 3.87 yards per play and 15.7 points per game.
UCF Outlook: We hope The Basement is stocked up on kegs, because this won't be the week that UCF finally wins.
The Knights had opportunities last week in a 30-16 loss to Temple. The defense made plays (including finally an interception - Shaquill Griffin's pick six). But the offense continued to be absurdly bad, including QB Justin Holman who has been a disaster since coming back from injury against UConn. His stat line in two games back is a combined 37/81 for 322 yards, 1 TD, and 5 interceptions. Last week, UCF had four turnovers that gave field position inside Temple territory and only got a total of three points on them. The Knights had a staggeringly bad 134 yards of total offense. Things are . . . bad.
It's never a good sign when the most laudatory part of the team is the play of the kicker. We are really scrapping the bottom of the optimism barrel when we see newspaper articles raving about kicker play. That said, congratulations Matthew Wright! Despite missing what would have been a game-winning field goal against FIU, Wright's performance means the kicking game is probably the most functional part of this team. He's hit his last eight field goals (good enough to tie him for the eighth most consecutive field goals by a UCF player). He's missed only that game-losing attempt against FIU.
No way are the Knights going to be able to keep pace with the Cougars, despite a defense that is finally getting (some) things done. Iowa State transfer T.J. Mutcherson (whom we predicted to give the UCF secondary a boost this year) made an impact in his first UCF start, with seven tackles (one for a loss), a forced fumble, and two fumble recoveries last week. And of course Shaquill Griffin showed some ability with the aforementioned pick six - UCF's first defensive touchdown since 2012.
But none of this will be enough. Expect the Knights' march to 0-12 to continue tomorrow.

Temple Owls vs UCF Knights Final Score Recap: Owls Win 30-16 as Thomas Lights up the Linc

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/10/18/9561959/temple-owls-vs-ucf-knights-final-score-recap


UCF's George O'Leary Stepping Down form Interim AD Gig

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/10/12/9511767/ucfs-george-oleary-stepping-down-from-interim-ad-gig-remaining-head

UCF Knights vs. Temple Owls: Preview, TV, Radio, Betting Line, Start Time

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/10/16/9555745/ucf-knights-vs-temple-owls-preview-tv-radio-betting-line-start-time

Temple football is ascendant. UCF football is in a crater. It's a virtual certainty that each team's "perfect" record will continue on Saturday (which is to say, UCF ought to fall to 0-7 and Temple ought to move on to 6-0).
The inimitable Bill C's Week 7 S&P+ Picks post has Temple's win probability at 97.4%.
So you're saying there's a chance.
Start time: 7:30 PM, EST
TV: CBS Sports Network
Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pa.
Radio: 96.9-FM & 740-AM - Orlando
Betting Line: Temple is a 21.5 point favorite. That's being kind to the hapless Knights.
The Series: UCF is 2-0 against Temple, including, of course J.J. Worton's famous catch in 2013:
Last year, UCF jumped out to a 17-0 first quarter lead and cruised to a 34-14 win at home.
Temple Outlook: AAC East Leader Temple should clearly cruise against division bottom-dweller UCF. Temple has looked very good this year, especially in early season wins against Penn State and Cincinnati.
The defense has really been stellar. They boast a success rate of 31.3%, good for tenth best in the nation. Opposing teams have averaged only 14.4 points per game against the Temple defense. And they've stifled opposing run games, to the tune of allowing only 97.2 yards per game (eleventh best in the country).
Statistically, the Owls' offense has not impressed. Temple is putting up an average of 195.8 yards passing and 151.8. And Temple's runs have been stuffed far more often than they should be (don't worry Owls fans - UCF is not in any position to take advantage of this or anything else). But Temple has enjoyed excellent field position thanks to its special teams play and defense.
The trio of QB PJ Walker, RB Jahad Thomas and WR Robby Anderson stands out for Temple on offense. Walker has looked great overall this year, and has thrown for 914 yards, 7 TDs, and 2 INTs. Thomas, a converted defensive back, has established himself as one of the best running backs in the conference. And Anderson is the team's leading receiver with 220 yards and 4 TDs.
UCF Outlook: Well, the Knights aren't the worst team in the FBS (North Texas Mean Green, step on up and bring that 66-7 loss to Portland State with you, please!). But they are close to it. There's little good to say about the Knights and even less argument why they might be able to win.
Last week, we were hopeful the Knights would be buoyed by the return of QB Justin Holman (who had been injured since the first series against Stanford in Week 2) and Junior RB Dontravious Wilson.
Wilson played sparingly, with some time on special teams, a couple of catches, and no carries. Holman was a dreadful 27/50 for 255 yards, a touchdown, and three interceptions. I remain a firm believer in Holman, who looked like the bright spot of the team in Week 1 action against FIU, and who had some terrific moments last year. But whether it was due to "rust" or still recovering from injury, everything for Holman was out of sorts last week against UConn (and it was the second year in a row that the Huskies had Holman's number). Given the state of the offensive line and the wide receiving corps, there's no reason why things should look better against the Owl's superior defense.
That's a UCF theme for this year really: there's no reason to believe things will improve until next season.
Sure, Coach George O'Leary is now focused solely on coaching, having abandoned the interim AD gig that he had held simultaneously. But GOL appears very much a head coach who delegates, and was insistent when he took it that the interim AD job would not take so much time as to be a distraction. So it seems unlikely that an increase in football focus will bring improvement on the field.
Knights fans, your best bet to avoid driving yourselves crazy is to focus on the young players getting great early opportunities on the field, and hope that this will translate to a solid and experienced team in a couple years. The Knights have now played 71% of their 2015 signing class and fourteen current or former walk-ons this year. And yes, one of the latter accounted for the safety the Knights gave up to UConn when he left the end zone, stepped back in, and knelt down.
But still. Hope for the future. Amiright?

University of Complete Futility: UCF Knights Destroyed 40-13 by UConn Huskies

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/10/10/9494531/university-of-complete-futility-ucf-knights-destroyed-40-13-by-uconn

Just another Saturday at the University of Complete Futility, folks. More injuries, more bad mistakes, more baffling choices. A week after an utter collapse against Tulane -- which I thought was the rock bottom for UCF -- the Knights grabbed a shovel and started digging.
The Knights finally got Junior quarterback Justin Holman back, but the QB play remained poor. The Knights also got Dontravious Wilson back, finally. Or sort of, at least. The nominal first string running back played a bit on special teams a bit and had a couple receptions very late in the game.
Holman started with a dink-and-dunk (but fairly promising) drive, which saw nine straight passes from the Knights to reach the UConn four yard line. Redshirt Freshman RB C.J. Jones got the Knights to the one on the next play, but the Knights failed to punch in the touchdown, settling for a field goal.
And that was the best non-garbage time drive for the Knights. Holman played badly (but without much help from his young wide receivers, who dropped a bunch of passes). Holman finished 27/50 for 255 yards, a touchdown pass to Nick Patti, and three interceptions. The first two picks were very bad: each of UConn's drives following the picks resulted in a touchdown. And they came near the end of the half, as though just to ensure Knights fans harbored no hope of a rally -- this Knights team is not capable of overcoming what was then a 23-3 deficit at the half. Holman's third pick came on one of the Knights' better drives, albeit in garbage time down 40-3.
There were many moments of utter futility for the Knights throughout the game. Surrendering third down conversions to the Huskies on 20+ yard passes on UConn's first drive. Any of Holman's picks. All of the UCF defenders bouncing off of UConn running back Arkeel Newsome on his third quarter touchdown runs. Also the punt fumbled by Chris Johnson in the third quarter (you may remember him from last week, when he fumbled directly into the arms of one of the two Tulane defensive backs who caught him after a 62 yard pass). In fact, let's count the entire third quarter, in which UConn outscored UCF 17-0, as futile.
It turns out that it's easy to identify the sad moment that best encapsulates UCF's nightmare today. And it happened early. With the score 7-3 in the first quarter, UConn kicked off . . . and Hayden Jones caught it, stepped out of the end zone, stepped back in, and knelt to give UConn the safety.
Of course that's what happened.
The Knights also continued to suffer injuries. C.J. Jones had some promising runs, but found himself dinged up and limping off the field. Far worse, CB Jeremy Boykins left the game wearing a neck brace and in an ambulance. Always a scary situation, and our thoughts are with him.
This was an unmitigated disaster for the Knights, who have no reason to believe things will get better this season. Congratulations to the Huskies, and especially to Bob Diaco. Dang, that guy knows when to declare a rivalry. UConn now owns a 2-1 record over the Knights. And who knows - we may even have a competitive game in the "Civil Conflict," or "The ConFLiCT," or whatever it is. But it sure wasn't this year.
I can't write a recap for a game this bad without saying a big thank you to the UCF fans who stayed through the end of the game. You are earning your place in football Heaven for this.

UCF Knights v. UConn Huskies: Preview, TV, Radio, Betting Line, Start Time

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/10/9/9484743/ucf-knights-v-uconn-huskies-preview-tv-radio-betting-line-start-time


Welcome to the first official installment of the "Civil ConFLiCT." (Get it? The capital "FL" is for Florida and the capital "CT" is for Connecticut and the "o" is for OHGODWHY).
This summer, UConn Head Coach unilaterally declared a rivalry with UCF, dubbing it the "Civil Conflict" The notion to capitalize the state abbreviations would only materialize later during AAC media day, when Bob Diaco was on fire during the coaches forum.
I don't think anyone can credibly suggest that this match-up is a rivalry, though thanks to Diaco, it is a (very weird) trophy game. This year it's all about two teams desperate for wins. Or in the Knights' case, a win.
And with Junior QB Justin Holman back instead of the Bo Schneider dumpster fire, maybe it will even happen this week.
Start time: October 10, 2015 at 3:45 PM EST.
Location: Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando, FL.
TV: ESPNews.
Radio: 96.9 FM and 740-AM - Orlando, Sirius 119, XM 203.
Betting Line: UCF is a 2.5 point favorite.
The Series: We're tied at 1-1. In 2013, UCF destroyed UConn 62-17. The Huskies beat the Knights in Holman's turnover-plagued game last year 37-29. Bob Diaco only listed this second score on the "Civil Conflict" trophy he created.
The 2014 loss at UConn was also the Knights' only AAC loss until last week's disaster at Tulane.
The Opponent: Good news Knights fans: we are playing another terrible offense. UConn is averaging 15.8 points per game on offense. The 2-3 Huskies are a bad team. The Huskies opened the season with wins over Villanova and Army and then promptly dropped three in a row to Mizzou, Navy, and BYU.
QB Bryant Sheriffs has been pretty decent, but doesn't always take care of the football (BYU scored tend points off two Sheriffs picks to allow BYU to pull away last week).
UConn sports a solid run defense thanks to guys like DT Julian Campenni and LB Luke Carrezola. They have an opportunity to do a lot of damage against an anemic UCF rushing attack - the Knights turned in negative thirty-five yards rushing last week. And while it feels like it just can't be that bad again, Knights fans should be rightly nervous.
UCF Outlook: Folks, we are 0-5. The outlook for the Knights is never going to be "good" this season. But last week against Tulane may have been the rock bottom and established a new standard for utter futility - perfectly encapsulated by the following three play sequence:
1.      Bo Schneider completes a 62 yard pass to WR Chris Johnson. Johnson is somehow caught from behind by two Tulane players, one of whom punches the ball out directly into the other's arms.
2.      Tulane QB Tanner Lee throws a 49 yard touchdown pass and Tulane hits the extra point.
3.      Bo Schneider throws a pick.
I can't promise a win against the Huskies. But I am going to make a bold prediction: you will not see a sequence of three plays that awful on Saturday against the Huskies. Junior QB Justin Holman is back, according to head coach/interim athletic director/we-get-to-blame-you-for-everything-now-right George O'Leary (of course, Dontravious Wilson was supposed to be back last week,[1] but that didn't pan out, so . . . ). Holman had been cleared last week for the Tulane game, but did not travel because he apparently wasn't yet comfortable throwing with sufficient speed or accuracy.
O'Leary also announced that WR Taylor Oldham, who has been out since getting injured in the Spring game, will be back. He will be added to a wide receiver corps that is basically playing anyone healthy at this point.
Holman's return ought to give the Knights a bit of a punch this week. But remember, Holman's not a panacea. UCF can't run the ball. The offensive line is terrible, not only in run blocking, but in protecting the QB. Last week, for example, Schneider was sacked seven times.
This game is as good as any left on the schedule for the Knights to finally cobble together their first win of the season. But when you're this bad, it's hard to be too hopeful.


[1] This week, O'Leary said: "I'm waiting to see if Wilson can run full speed. I was told last week he was ready to go, but not from me watching. I didn't think he could cut like he needed to cut in a game, so that's why he didn't play. This week, he has to get ready to play and stuff and go from there."