Know Your Foes: UCF’s Opponents After Week Seven

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/17/16483148/ucf-knights-university-of-central-florida-future-opponents-strength-of-schedule-new-years-six-g5

Last week in this space, we started talking strength of schedule and how, as between the winner of the War on I-4 and San Diego State, strength of schedule might matter a great deal.

Yeah, so Boise State knocked off SDSU 31-14. The only Group of Five team ranked above the UCF Knights is USF. And – obviously – the Knights have the opportunity to beat the Bulls. UCF controls its own destiny when it comes to playing in a New Year’s Six bowl.

The teams UCF have beaten this year are a combined 15-17. Sure, the Knights have only played two teams with winning records right now – Memphis and FIU. But UCF is blowing everyone off the field, and hasn’t been seriously challenged after the half in any game.

To put that in context, consider the obvious comparator, USF. The Bulls have played six games and the combined record of their opponents is 14-28. One third of their opponents to date have one win. Another third have two wins. The last third consists of a 3-4 Temple team and a 5-2 FCS program, Stony Brook.

As my colleague Luke noted on Twitter:

On to the Knights’ past and future opponents, in schedule order:

FIU Panthers (4-2 Overall, 2-1 Conference USA)

The Panthers beat their AAC foe Tulane this week 23-10. FIU had a balanced attack (218 yards rushing, 220 through the air) and held Tulane’s running game in check.

This is a big deal for FIU – at 4-2 in Butch Davis’s first season, the Panthers have now matched their previous best start in program history.

The Panthers aren’t a very good team, but they’re a very good-for-FIU team.

Maryland Terrapins (3-3 Overall, 1-2 Big Ten)

The Terps lost to their conference opponent Northwestern, in a game where the lead went back and forth. Maryland could not run the ball at all. And the defense was overwhelmed, surrendering 531 yards to Wildcats. The final score was 37-21.

#25/RV Memphis Tigers (5-1 Overall, 2-1 AAC)

A 30-27 win over Navy got the Tigers ranked in the AP Poll (though not the Coaches poll). This is the first time the program history that Memphis has beaten two top 25 teams in one season (you’ll recall the UCLA game?).

UCF’s 40-13 hammering of Memphis is the team’s best win to date.

Cincinnati Bearcats (2-5 Overall, 0-3 AAC)

The Bearcats were clobbered by USF this week, losing 33-3. The USF rushing attack was dominant and the Cincinnati offense was poor. The Bearcats totaled 273 yards of offense – only 3.9 yards per play.

The Bearcats have now dropped four in a row and been outscored 164-79 in those games.

ECU Pirates (1-6 Overall, 1-3 AAC)

UCF 63, ECU 21. Next.

Navy Midshipmen (5-1 Overall, 3-1 AAC)

The Midshipmen made a load of mistakes in their loss to Memphis this week. Navy suffered five turnovers. Quarterback Zach Abey was disastrous when called upon to throw the football and went 1-for-7 for 20 yards and two interceptions.

This was Navy’s first real test of the year; they failed it. I expect the Knights to inflict another loss on them this week.

Austin Peay Governors (4-3 Overall, 3-1 Ohio Valley Conference)

The Governors beat Tennessee State 21-17, despite playing most of the game with backup Jeremiah Oatsvall in at quarterback. Ausitn Peay played sound defense, forcing Tennessee State to settle for a number of early field goal attempts (on which Tennessee State was a measly 1-of-3).

SMU Mustangs (4-2 Overall, 1-1 AAC)

The Mustangs had a bye. They resume play next week with a game against the reeling Bearcats.

UConn Huskies (2-4 Overall, 1-3 AAC)

With a 28-24 win over the Temple Owls, UConn snapped an eight game conference losing streak and notched the Huskies’ first road win in almost two years. Much of the credit belongs to the defense which, after looking bad all year, stepped up.

Temple Owls (3-4 Overall, 1-3 AAC)

Temple’s loss to UConn emphasizes that apart from the two best teams in the AAC East, the rest of the division is bad, bad, bad.

#16/#13 USF Bulls (6-0 Overall, 3-0 AAC)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the USF offense endured some early struggles this week. The first quarter of the Bull’s homecoming game against Cincinnati ended with the score 3-3.[1] But USF’s defense continues to be excellent, and the Bulls ultimately prevailed 33-3.

Previous ‘Know Your Foes’: Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6.

[1] Two weeks ago, the Knights led Cincinnati 20-7 at the end of the first quarter.

UCF Dismantles East Carolina, Moves up to #20 in the Polls

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/15/16479362/ucf-knights-central-florida-dismantles-east-carolina-pirates-aac-scott-frost-orlando-recap-box-score

Another game, another dominating performance by the UCF Knights offense. In what we knew would be a lopsided matchup, the Knights were able to dismantle the East Carolina defense in their 63-21 victory. The 63 points scored ties the single-game record set in 2001 against Liberty. Heading into week 8, #UCFast ranks #5 in offensive yards per game (547) and #1 in points per game (50.6).

McKenzie Milton continued his All-American worthy season by throwing for 324 yards and 2 touchdowns while completing 78% of his passes. He stays in 2^nd place behind Baker Mayfield for passer rating (203.6) and yards per attempt (11.6).

The passing game produced some big plays including a 37-yard catch from Tre’Quan Smith, a 42-yard catch from Cam Stewart and a 48-yard touchdown catch from Jordan Akins on the first drive of the game. Otis Anderson also played a big role catching 7 passes for 76 yards. The most impressive catch of the game may have been from defensive lineman Jamiyus Pittman who caught a 4-yard touchdown pass in the 1^st quarter.

5 different Knights scored a touchdown on the ground as carries were spread pretty even throughout this deep group of running backs. Special teams and defense contributed to the scoring as well with a 50-yard pick 6 by Tre Neal and a 66-yard punt return touchdown by Mike Hughes.

East Carolina was able to pull a few big passes and runs against the UCF defense, but the Knights were able to hold them in check allowing 347 yards and 21 points in total.

The announced attendance was 40,287 (91% capacity), which is a season high for UCF. Despite cracking the top-25, the Knights have yet to have a sell out this season through 3 home games. Sell out or not, the students came out in force, which was great to see.

The Knights are back in action this Saturday at 3:30 against Navy. It will be the first time in history that these two teams will meet. UCF moved up to #20 in the AP Poll and the Coaches Poll while Navy dropped out of the rankings after losing to #25 Memphis. The Knights might be in for their biggest test of the season as they face off against Navy’s triple-option offense.

#21 UCF vs East Carolina: Preview and Prediction

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/13/16461482/ucf-knights-vs-east-carolina-pirates-prediction-aac-scott-frost-orlando-preview-kickoff-tv-betting

Know Your Foes: UCF’s Opponents After Week Six

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/12/16458938/ucf-knights-central-florida-american-athletic-conference-aac-future-opponents-recap-sos

he issue of whether the UCF Knights have a good resume looks increasingly likely to be significant this year. Now ranked #21/#22 in the Coaches Poll and the AP Poll (respectively), UCF is the third highest ranked team not in a power conference. Ahead of the Knights are the USF Bulls (#15/#18) and the San Diego State Aztecs (#18/#19).

The question of which non-power conference team plays in a New Year’s Six bowl is determined by the highest rank among G5 conference champions. While those rankings don’t start quite yet, it’s reasonable enough to assume the rank order would at least initially approximate the Coach/AP polls as far as UCF, SDSU, and USF are concerned. UCF and USF will have the opportunity to settle things on the field.[1] Between the winner of the War on I-4 and SDSU, strength of schedule may matter a great deal.

(This team is taking things one game at a time, and treating their record as 0-0 each week. Doesn’t mean we have to).

The Knights’ past and future opponents, in schedule order:

FIU Panthers (3-2 Overall, 2-1 Conference USA)

Lost 37-17 to a Middle Tennessee team that was depleted on defense. The loss knocks the Panthers out of first place in Conference USA’s East division. But our Middle Tennessee writer describes them as a “very solid” Conference USA team, so the Panthers have that going for them.

Maryland Terrapins (3-2 Overall, 1-1 Big Ten)

Suffered a devastating 62-14 blowout at the hands of #10 Ohio State. Quarterback Max Bortenschlager (who played most of the game against UCF) went 3-of-12 for 16 yards, was sacked four times, and lost two fumbles. He left the game following a hit to his head and was replaced by Caleb Henderson, now the Terps’ fourth quarterback in five games.

Root for Maryland to get a bounceback win this week against Northwestern, it’s one of the more winnable games remaining on their schedule.

Memphis Tigers (4-1 Overall, 1-1 AAC)

A week after the Knights held Memphis to 13 points (with a touchdown coming on the last play of the game), the Tigers hung 70 on poor UConn.

Riley Ferguson’s stat line against UCF (in for the entire game): 27-of-49, 321 yards, 1 TD, 3 Int.

Riley Ferguson’s stat line against UConn (not in for the entire game): 34-of-48, 431 yards, 7 TDs, 0 Int.

Memphis now plays Navy in a game UCF fans should watch. We play the Midshipmen in two weeks, and they’re the toughest remaining opponent not named USF.

Cincinnati Bearcats (2-4 Overall, 0-2 AAC)

I said I was done underestimating this Knights team, so I predicted a 24 point win.

It was a 28 point win. In only three quarters of play. This is tied for the Knights’ smallest margin of victory so far this season.

ECU Pirates (1-5 Overall, 1-2 AAC)

After showing signs of life against USF, the Pirates lost to Temple, 34-10. Like the Huskies, the Pirates are the dregs of the conference this year.

Expect an easy Homecoming game this week, and a stellar debut for the Knights’ space-themed uniforms.

Navy Midshipmen (5-0 Overall, 3-0 AAC)

Beat Air Force 48-45 thanks to a touchdown pass by Zach Abey with a mere 15 seconds left on the clock. The Midshipmen made a lot of mistakes along the way, including blowing a 21 point second half lead.

This was a game with a lot of offense – Navy rolled up 557 yards while Air Force ripped through the Midshipmen for 621 yards.

While a narrow victory over a one win Air Force team isn’t exactly impressive, Navy remains undefeated, dangerous, and is now ranked at #25/#24.

Austin Peay Governors (3-3 Overall, 2-1 Ohio Valley Conference)

The Governors suffered their first loss to a non-FBS opponent so far this season. Jacksonville State beat them 34-14. Austin Peay has now lost the last eleven games in that series.

SMU Mustangs (4-2 Overall, 1-1 AAC)

Lost to Houston, 35-22. The Mustangs still had 544 yards of total offense, but they failed to capitalize on their opportunities. SMU might benefiting from an increased focused on the running game. The Mustangs ran the ball 26 times, in contrast to 59 passes.

UConn Huskies (1-4 Overall, 0-3 AAC)

The offense was able to keep the Huskies hanging with Memphis for a bit this week. But this team is just awful. It was UConn’s worst defensive performance in program history.

Hockey season started though.

Temple Owls (3-3 Overall, 1-2 AAC)

With a win over ECU (in which Temple scored 24 points unanswered), Temple is back to .500. The Owls Play UConn on Saturday, and will likely get to a winning record after that game.

#15/#18 USF Bulls (5-0 Overall, 2-0 AAC)

“Wisely avoided playing football this week.”

Previous ‘Know Your Foes’: Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5.

[1] I have long been confident that the Bulls, with their weak schedule, would be undefeated for the War on I-4. While UCF has to overcome good Navy and SMU teams, I’m predicting UCF will likewise be undefeated at that time.

What more do the UCF Knights need to do for a sellout?

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/11/16454946/what-more-do-the-ucf-knights-need-to-do-for-a-sellout-american-aac-scott-frost-orlando

UCF Knights Score on Every Possession, Cruise to 51-23 win over Bearcats

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/8/16444648/ucf-knights-university-of-central-florida-cincinnati-bearcats-recap-2017-mckenzie-milton-scott-frost

Quarterback McKenzie Milton and the UCF Knights shredded the University of Cincinnati Bearcats defense and cruised to a 51-23 win. UCF got off to a hot start, and in the first five minutes scored touchdowns on passes of 54 and 79 yards, to Dredrick Snelson and Tre’Quan Smith, respectively. It took a total of five plays to take the 13-0 lead.[1] And the Knights never looked back or much slowed down. The offense operated virtually flawlessly, with the Knights scoring on each of their eight possessions (seven touchdowns and a single field goal). UCF now has the nation’s number one scoring offense.

It was only three quarters of football, as pouring rain and thunderstorms scuttled the last quarter. In that context, the statistics are even more impressive. UCF racked up 515 yards of total offense, averaging 12.9 yards per play. Milton’s stat line was a phenomenal 16-of-19 for 374 yards and five touchdowns, his best game yet. Smith had a staggeringly good five receptions for 165 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran off tackle for a touchdown. But perhaps the most ‘feel-good’ touchdown was the 21 yard catch by redshirt senior TE Michael Colubiale. Yes, the dude who tripped a few yards short of the goal line against Maryland.

All wasn’t perfect for the Knights, however. UCF allowed Bearcats QB Hayden Moore a pretty good night: 23-of-40 for 278 yards passing, 81 yards rushing and three total touchdowns (two of them rushing). The defense was also uncharacteristically porous on third down, allowing the Bearcats (a team that usually struggles to convert those opportunities) to go 9 of 15. And a trio of offsides penalties on consecutive plays late in the half got the Bearcats in position for a successful field goal attempt.

The highlight on defense was undoubtedly Seyvon Lowry’s interception. The big man now has interceptions in back-to-back games (giving him a total three for his career). With two, Lowry – a defensive end who’s not on top of the depth chart – is tied with cornerback Mike Hughes and safety Kyle Gibson for most picks so far this season.

Oh, and it looks like the UCF fans who made the trip had a nice time despite the rain.

In the wake of the game, UCF climbed up in both polls, reaching 21^st in the Coaches and 22^nd in the AP. The Knights play a very bad ECU team next weekend for homecoming.

[1] The Knights failed the two point conversion attempt after the second touchdown.

No. 25 UCF Knights vs University of Cincinnati Bearcats: Preview, Start Time, TV, Betting Line, Prediction

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/6/16434534/ucf-knights-vs-university-of-cincinnati-bearcats-preview-start-time-tv-betting-line-prediction

No. 25 UCF Knights vs University of Cincinnati Bearcats: Preview, Start Time, TV, Betting Line, Prediction

Start Time: 8 PM ET, Saturday, October 7.

TV: ESPNU

Radio: FM 96.9/AM 740 The Game

Live stats: http://gobearcats.com

Location: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH

Records: Of course, UCF is 3-0, 1-0 AAC. And if you’ve been reading our weekly Know Your Foes post, you’re also aware Cincinnati is 2-3, 0-1 AAC, with a loss to Marshall last week. Yikes.

The Series: UCF has a 2-1 edge. Last year, the Knights got to bowl eligibility with a 24-3 win. The Knights defense did some gloriously nasty things.

Betting Line: UCF opened as a 13.5 point favorite. Then the line moved to -17.

UCF Outlook:

Feels good to see that ranking in the headline.

Been too long not to enjoy it.

You don’t need me to tell you again that the Knights have cruised through the season so far, rolling over a trio of teams that are undefeated but-for their games against UCF. And while FIU isn’t very good (though good enough to be leading their division), wins over Maryland and Memphis are quality wins for the Knights. A battle-tested team (despite not being threatened in the second half all year), the Knights should easily hit 4-0 for the first time since 1988 (the Division II era!).

The McKenzie Milton-led offense has been rolling. The defense has been excellent. The defensive line is mauling people. The linebackers continue to be great. Mike Hughes has been a revelation at corner, and the secondary is far more secure than it looked at the start of the season.

I expect the defense to be the reason the Knights put the Bearcats away early. UCF leads the country in turnover margin with an average of +2.33 per game. Cincinnati is tied for 77^th in the country (with a bunch of other teams at) at -1. Likewise, the UCF defense has been brutal to opposing teams on third down. Opponents are a mere 8 of 37 on third down. The Bearcats rank a mere 99^th in third down conversions; they convert only a bit more than a third of the time.

Cincinnati Outlook:

The Bearcats have had a rough start under first year head coach Luke Fickell. Cincinnati started the season beating Austin Peay by a mere 12 points. Then lost to Michigan by 22 after keeping it close for about three quarters. Then needed end-of-game heroics to beat Miami (OH). And then lost to Navy. And then lost to Marshall. By 17.

Cincinnati is an uneven team with a lot of young players. The Bearcats have the second worse offense in the American Athletic Conference. Quarterback Hayden Moore is inconsistent – he’s been good at times and struggled seriously at others. Nor can Cincinnati run consistently. The Bearcats are one of the worst teams in the conference in yards per carry with 3.5. If Cincinnati winds up down early (as I think they will), they’re not going to have a lot of ways to get back in the game.

Defensively, Cincinnati is vulnerable on the ground. Neither are they great at defending the pass, but they’ve had less occasion to be tested through the air.

Prediction: Cincinnati is not nearly as good as UCF. And the Knights haven’t given me any reason to doubt their seriousness or intensity against seemingly overmatched opponents.

I’ve also been underestimating our Knights all year. Didn’t predict quite a big enough blowout against FIU. Predicted a Maryland win. and I predicted only a narrow win against Memphis.

So: no more. UCF by 24. At least.

Go Knights.

For more on this game, check out our “Five Questions” with Bearcats blog Down the Drive. Our reciprocal answers to their questions are over here.

Five Questions with Down the Drive (UC Answers)

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/5/16430028/preview-ucf-knights-university-of-central-florida-university-of-cincinnati-bearcats-2017-football

Know Your Foes: UCF's Opponents After Week Five

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/4/16426564/know-your-foes-ucfs-opponents-after-week-five-mckenzie-milton-scott-frost

With what UCF has displayed to date, I’ve become virtually certain that the winner of the War on I-4 clinches the division. Seeing what we have to date, I don’t believe either the Knights or the Bulls will have more than one loss by the time it’s Black Friday (and USF, with an extremely easy conference draw, really should be undefeated).

The riskiest game for UCF on the way to the War on I-4 is Navy. SMU should be easier, but still a potentially dangerous game. Aside from these three games, nothing else on the Knights’ schedule looks particularly concerning.

Our past and future opponents, in schedule order:

FIU Panthers (3-1 Overall, 2-0 Conference USA)

Struggled mightily against winless Charlotte before rallying behind the play of quarterback Alex McGough for a razor thin 30-29 victory. Embarassingly, FIU was down 26-7 near the end of the second quarter.

So despite their record (and holding first place in the East division of Conference USA), the Panthers are not a good team. Oddly enough, they could wind up being 4-1 after this week anyway – FIU plays an injury-ravaged Middle Tennessee team.

Maryland Terrapins (3-1 Overall, 1-0 Big Ten)

Oh, I love this one. The Terps handled Minnesota 31-24 despite being a 13 point underdog.

It’s a win that exposes the false narrative that UCF only beat the Maryland because they lost Kasim Hill to injury. Terps third string QB Max Bortenschlager – whom UCF rendered totally ineffective – had a very nice game against Minnesota, going 18/28 for 154 yards, two touchdowns, and adding a third touchdown on the ground.

The Terps play Ohio State this week, and this will ruin the “UCF’s first three opponents are undefeated apart from their losses to the Knights” factoid. Ah well. Maryland is a good team and a quality win for the Knights.

Memphis Tigers (3-1 Overall, 0-1 AAC)

Last week in this spot, I said I’d pick UCF to win in a tight game. Oops. Dude, we blew these guys away.

Memphis remains a good team and what I saw didn’t dissuade me from thinking they could win their division.

Cincinnati Bearcats (2-3 Overall, 0-1 AAC)

Lost to the Marshall Thundering Herd by 17 points.

At home.

Not good.

QB Hayden Moore was a disaster until garbage time and the running game did little to help. The Bearcats are a team with significant limitations.

ECU Pirates (1-4 Overall, 1-1 AAC)

The ECU offense showed up, but the Pirates still lost to USF in a 61-31 blowout. QB Thomas Sirk performed well. The defense was absolutely shredded, however.

Navy Midshipmen (4-0 Overall, 3-0 AAC)

Navy went down 14-0 early against Tulsa. Then the Midshipmen defense woke up. Navy ended up scoring 31 unanswered points to win.

Austin Peay Governors (3-2 Overall, 2-0 Ohio Valley Conference)

Not a lot of offense here, as the Governors notched a 7-0 win over Tennessee-Martin. Good for Austin Peay’s third straight win in a row, however. The Governors have only lost to FBS programs so far this year.

SMU Mustangs (4-1 Overall, 1-0 AAC)

SMU allowed East division bottom dweller UConn to hang around until the fourth quarter. In the end, the Mustangs put away the Huskies 49-28. Though SMU’s defense line played very well, the rest of the defense underwhelmed.

Seeing how the Knights rolled over Memphis, I’m not overly concerned about our future match-up. But make no mistake – SMU is better than almost all of our East division opponents.

UConn Huskies (1-3 Overall, 0-2 AAC)

The Huskies are a poor team, but the offense is making some improvements.

Still the worst team in the division.

Temple Owls (2-3 Overall, 0-2 AAC)

Lost to Houston, 20-13. The Owls defense did well enough, but Temple just couldn’t get things going offensively.

#18 USF Bulls (5-0 Overall, 2-0 AAC)

The Bulls didn’t start sharp (I’m sure you’re just shocked to hear that), but they poured it on in the second half, outscoring ECU 30-7 in their thirty point win.

This is an excellent USF team with tremendous potential. But they’re still having problems getting everything to click consistently.

Previous ‘Know Your Foes’: Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4.

UCF Hammers Memphis, Stakes Claim to AAC Dominance

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/1/16391700/ucf-knights-memphis-tigers-university-of-central-florida-riley-ferguson-recap-football-recap-griffin

My feelings are best expressed by this video of Shaquem Griffin clapping in the opponent’s face, over and over.

And over.

And over.

UCF looks like the best team in the American Athletic Conference. There are tough games left to play against Navy, USF, and maybe SMU. But with a 40-13 hammering of presumptive AAC West leader Memphis, the UCF Knights are the team to beat.

Candidly, I don’t know where to start with this recap. It’s an embarrassment of riches. Shaquem Griffin had a strip sack of Memphis QB Riley Ferguson, which Pat Jasinski recovered. Tre’Quan Smith had two touchdown catches. Adrian Killins had a 96 yard touchdown run (this broke his own record for longest TD run in UCF history). And also a touchdown after a catch and run. Kyle Gibson had a crazy interception for the second week in a row. Mike Hughes had a great pick, also for the second week in a row. Seyvon Lowry had a big man pick – something we never tire of here.

The statistics are beyond gaudy. UCF had 603 total yards of offense (350 rushing, 253 passing). UCF still hasn’t allowed a sack. UCF’s defense held the Tigers to 75 rushing yards. UCF’s turnover margin is unearthly good, helped by being plus four today. UCF has outscored its three opponents 139-40. Each of those teams has lost only to UCF.

This is also another ‘it wasn’t even as close as the score suggests’ game. Inasmuch as losing by 27 could be considered remotely in the neighborhood. Memphis was down 40-7 and scored a touchdown with no time left on the clock afterwards. This is quite literally the most garbage of garbage time imaginable.

It was a given that UCF would move the ball against Memphis’s injury-depleted defense, but hard to imagine the defense would make the huge stops it did. When I previewed this came before Hurricane Irma, I predicted a shootout. Um, nope.

What I can’t tell you is that it was perfect. McKenzie Milton didn’t always make good choices and threw a bad interception into the end zone. There were some egregious penalties that looked at the time that they might seriously sting us (they didn’t). But dwelling on the relatively few miscues would seem terribly ungrateful. Maybe we’ll pick the nits another day (we won’t).

So there we go. The Knights are 3-0. The Knights blew out FIU (for whatever that’s worth). The Knights clobbered a Big Ten team (hey, those Terps went on to beat Minnesota this week). The Knights have blown out the Tigers, whom many thought would be the best team in the AAC West (they may still wind up in that spot). No one has seriously threatened UCF in the second half of a game all year.

I’ve assumed that this year was setting the table for next year. Maybe I was wrong. Maybe this year is the year.

/insert unbridled optimism here.

Oh, and also highlights.

Go Knights!

Know Your Foes: UCF's Opponents After Week 4

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/9/26/16368060/know-your-foes-ucf-opponents-after-week-four-central-florida-knights-mckenzie-milton-scott-frost

The UCF Knights finally got to play their second game of the season last week. And what a game it was. The Knights manhandled Maryland 38-10. Credit to the lines – especially the defensive line – for winning in the trenches.

The downside was of course Jawon Hamilton’s season-ending non-contact ankle injury. Fortunately, he will use a medical redshirt.

After the Maryland win, the Knights look like a very good team; our chances to compete for a conference championship are real. And it continues to grow even more clear that the AAC East is going to be a two team race between UCF and USF.

Our former and future opponents are below in schedule order. Note the addition of FCS program Austin Peay on what had been a bye week. Great job by UCF to get an opponent rescheduled and the Knights back up to 11 games (not everyone’s so fortunate – our would-have-been opponent Georgia Tech has been unable to schedule a replacement game).

FIU Panthers (2-1 Overall, 1-0 Conference USA)

FIU is 2-1 and in first place in Conference USA’s East division. Nope, our blowout of the Panthers was still not a quality win. FIU has notched wins against Alcorn State (17-10, though FIU was more statistically dominant than you might guess from the score), and this past week’s 13-7 win over their conference foe Rice. Rice is terrible. Expect the Panthers to be 3-1 next week after playing another atrocious conference foe, winless Charlotte.

It’s not that the week 1 win over the Panthers does much for the resume, but the Knights did exactly what they should have – crushed an over-matched opponent without breaking much of a sweat.

Maryland Terrapins (2-1 Overall, 0-0 Big Ten)

You know what happened here. Highlights? Highlights.

The injury to Maryland’s quarterback Kasim Hill made an obvious difference in this game, but I’m confident in saying it didn’t change the outcome (and if we’re pretending injuries didn’t happen, add Hamilton back to our side). But the injury to Hill undoubtedly limits what Maryland can achieve going forward.

Memphis Tigers (3-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

A week after edging out a ranked UCLA team, Memphis was a bit out of sorts against the Southern Illinois Salukis and ultimately won 44-31. I predicted our game against the Tigers as a loss when it was scheduled before Irma. But seeing what we have this season, I’ll pick a UCF win in a tight game. Memphis’s defense is suspect. I have more confidence in the Knights’ ability to make stops.

Cincinnati Bearcats (2-2 Overall, 0-1 AAC)

The offense finally woke up a bit for the Bearcats, but this week the defense let them down against Navy. The Bearcats lost 42-32. Cincinnati QB Hayden Moore – who had made bunches of mistakes so far this season - had one of his best games.

I put the Bearcats in the middle tier of the division with Temple. Call them the East’s likely number three. I expect the Knights to beat them, though it’s no guarantee.

ECU Pirates (1-3 Overall, 1-0 AAC)

In this space last week, I claimed the Pirates were the worst team in the East. I was wrong. That dubious distinction belongs to UConn. The Pirates jumped to an early lead over the Huskies on Saturday and won 41-38.

Are there signs of life for the Pirates? Nah, probably not. The Huskies are terrible.

Navy Midshipmen (3-0 Overall, 2-0 AAC)

Navy’s triple option attack continues to put up yards and points with ease. Against Cincinnati, the Midshipmen had 569 yards rushing, with more than 300 coming in the first half. Navy hasn’t missed a beat. Though the strength of UCF’s front seven continues to be obvious, this nonetheless looks to be one of the three most dangerous games remaining on UCF’s schedule.

Austin Peay (2-2, 1-0 Ohio Valley Conference)

We’re all grateful for the chance to get the eleventh game in. Football season is far too short as it is. You may remember the Governors from their closer-than-expected loss against the Bearcats in week one. They also lost to the other FBS program they faced, Miami (OH). In week three, Austin Peay smashed Morehead State to end the Governors’ 29 game losing streak.

And on Saturday, Austin Peay beat conference opponent Murray State 27-7. The Governors lean heavily on the run and so far this season have one of the best FCS defenses.

SMU Mustangs (3-1 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Beat Arkansas State 44-21, capitalizing on miscues by the Red Wolves. SMU is better almost all of UCF’s AAC East foes, but probably the third toughest cross-divisional foe the Knights will face. I’m oversimplifying, but the Ponies look to be a worse Memphis.

UConn Huskies (1-2 Overall, 0-1 AAC)

Come on.

Temple Owls (2-2 Overall, 0-1 AAC)

Dominated totally by USF’s defense – in part because USF’s defense is great and in part because Temple’s offense was profoundly terrible. The Owls utter inefficacy was something else – Temple had -22 yards at the half and Logan Marchi (I’ve claimed he was a steady hand at QB. Oops.) threw four picks. None of the three quarterbacks Temple used were effective.

The Knights’ defense will be tearing these guys apart.

USF Bulls (4-0 Overall, 1-0 AAC)

USF is still making mistakes, but the Bulls easily crushed Temple by a margin of 43-7. QB Quinton Flowers struggled passing, going a mere 8-20 for 96 yards. He also had the ball stripped on a pass play and returned by Temple for a touchdown. And Flowers had his lowest rushing total of the year with 59 yards.

I keep waiting for the Bulls to perform consistently in all phases simultaneously, but that hasn’t happened yet. Even if it doesn’t, the Bulls will march through their schedule (even if no one’s there to see it) until Black Friday. There’s a very real possibility this rivalry game will decide the division.

Previous ‘Know Your Foes’: Week 1, Week 2, Week 3.