Friday, March 27, 2015

WR Breshad Perriman Unleashes Speed at UCF Pro Day, Improves Draft Stock

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/3/25/8291591/wr-breshad-perriman-unleashes-speed-at-ucf-pro-day-improves

A few days ago, I wrote our 2015 NFL Draft profile of early entrant Breshad Perriman. Here's where I landed then:
Unfortunately for Perriman, he missed the combine with a hamstring injury. It’s too bad because he could have benefited with a strong performance given the concerns some have articulated about his drops. We’ll how he does working out at UCF on March 25. It ought to be illuminating and may perhaps establish him as a first round pick in the eyes of NFL scouts. Having watched him closely for three years, I'm inclined to think that he has the talent to be drafted that early -- we will see how teams' needs stack up.
Then came UCF's Pro Day. And, uh, things continue to look OK for Perriman:


A few days ago, I wrote our 2015 NFL Draft profile of early entrant Breshad Perriman. Here's where I landed then:
Unfortunately for Perriman, he missed the combine with a hamstring injury. It’s too bad because he could have benefited with a strong performance given the concerns some have articulated about his drops. We’ll how he does working out at UCF on March 25. It ought to be illuminating and may perhaps establish him as a first round pick in the eyes of NFL scouts. Having watched him closely for three years, I'm inclined to think that he has the talent to be drafted that early -- we will see how teams' needs stack up.
Then came UCF's Pro Day. And, uh, things continue to look OK for Perriman

...

The football end of the Twitterverse started exploding with bullish estimates of just how fast Perriman ran that 40. And by any of those estimates, Perriman was extremely fast. UCF estimated estimated his 40-yard dash time between 4.22 and 4.27 seconds.  Yahoo's Eric Edholm cautiously reported a text from a "via a trusted NFL scout,"indicating that the scout
[...] wrote that UCF wide receiver Breshad Perriman just ran a 4.15-second 40-yard dash at his pro day on Wednesday.
Not a misprint. Four-one-five. That's Bo Jackson/Deion Sanders speed if true.
And those are the key words: if true. We suspect that the time was not accurate, that his finger clicked the stopwatch a tenth of a second slow, with UCF not apparently having electronic timing at their facility.
Timing the (above) Vine of Perriman's 40 yard dash electronically, Edholm landed at 4.22 seconds (consistent with the fast side of UCF's report).

Perriman's agent Drew Rosenhaus initially put Perriman's time at 4.26, before noting that several teams had timed him even faster:


But let's be skeptics for a moment. And let's assume that the most 'true' time is the slowest end of the reported estimates: 4.27 seconds. That's still faster than the quickest 40 yard dash time from this year's NFL Combine -- UAB WR J.J. Nelson ran his 40 in 4.28 seconds (by the way, we've got a draft preview of Nelson over here). I guess there's a reason why Perriman is happy this afternoon:
You'll still see Perriman's hands questioned as we get closer to the draft (though I feel compelled to point out that Holman never really mustered up the ability to throw a pass with touch and so wasn't usually doing Perriman any favors here). But his performance at UCF's pro day ought to make his stock rise. For my part, I'm more solidified in my view that he ought to be drafted in the first round.

2015 NFL Draft Player Profile: UCF WR Breshad Perriman

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/3/22/8168517/2015-nfl-draft-player-profile-ucf-wr-breshad-perriman

Pretty much guaranteed to be one of any Knights fan's favorite recent players, early NFL draft entrant Breshad Perriman is a lock to be the first UCF Knight drafted this year.

Let's put this out front: Perriman cemented his place as a UCF hero with his 51 yard touchdown catch on "O Holy Knight" to beat ECU and win a share of the AAC title:


(Never get tired of finding reasons to squeezing that highlight into posts). Of course, that play is probably more about the ECU players being terribly out of position than Perriman being spectacular. But his statistics this year speak for themselves. Perriman led the Knights in every receiving category:  receptions (50), yards (1044), yards per catch (20.9), and touchdowns (9).

He clearly stood out among a Knights receiving corps with other talented players. And it wasn't even really close - the next leading receiver was Josh Reese with 39 receptions for 552 yards and 6 touchdowns. In fact, Perriman was the first UCF receiver with at least 1,000 yards in a season since Mike Sims-Walker in 2006 (who went on to his own NFL career with the Jacksonville Jaguars).

Perriman was also a critical piece of the Knights 2013 Fiesta Bowl winning campaign (39 receptions, 811 yards, 4 touchdowns).  And he contributed as Freshman during UCF's final season in Conference USA (26 receptions, 388 yards, 3 touchdowns). His UCF career was filled with highlights  -
Not so bad for a two star recruit, eh?

Pros:

There's a lot that the NFL analysts like about Perriman. The stats obviously show that he can play. And he's a good size at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds. As you'll see mentioned in every draft preview article about Perriman, he's the son of former NFL wide receiver Brett Perriman (best known for his time with the Detroit Lions). So for what it's worth, he gets to check off the 'NFL lineage' box. Mel Kiper is high on Breshad Perriman, and describes him as "a guy who can both stretch defenses vertically and also make plays over the middle and in traffic."  Pre-combine, Kiper projected him at number 15 to the 49ers. Then Kiper saw him going to Seattle. Now, trades have made the landscape more uncertain.

I put the Perriman tape on about three weeks ago and almost fell over. [inaudible] People tell me that he doesn't have good hands and boy do I disagree with that even though he's got drops than he should. So there's kind of a way to interpret that, a wide receiver that has too many drops should have bad hands, right? Well, I look at his hands and say he makes acrobatic catches, he makes high point catches, he makes contested catches, however every once in a while he drops an easy ball. But I think he's a natural hands catcher. I think he's got height and weight, I think he runs good routes...To me, he looks like a first round wide receiver.

Cons:

You’ll hear a lot about this supposed drop problem that Maycock refers to. We here at UD mentioned it in our NFL Combine 2015: The Underdogs preview. Pro Football Focus tags him with a drop rate of 13% last season. I tend to view this criticism as overblown. While I’ll agree that Perriman has a had more drops than you want to see, at least some of this was due to QB Justin Holman’s lack of touch on passes – every ball was thrown like it needed to go through a brick wall. It didn’t do Perriman any favors.


Conclusion:

Unfortunately for Perriman, he missed the combine with a hamstring injury. It’s too bad because he could have benefited with a strong performance given the concerns some have articulated about his drops. We’ll how he does working out at UCF on March 25. It ought to be illuminating and may perhaps establish him as a first round pick in the eyes of NFL scouts. Having watched him closely for three years, I'm inclined to think that he has the talent to be drafted that early -- we will see how teams' needs stack up.

UCF Offseason Themes: The "Good Kind" of Problem

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/3/18/8246881/ucf-offseason-themes-the-good-kind-of-problem

I love the Knights, but I don't think I quite get to call myself a "long time" UCF fan. I've set my personal arbitrary marker for what qualifies as a "long time" fan at the Daunte Culpepper era. (If you watched Culpepper play in a Golden Knights jersey, congratulations! One guy on the internet thinks that qualifies you as a "long time" UCF fan and is envious of you). Still, I'm a few years past the decade mark and remember when we had head coaches not named O'Leary (Kruczek! Gooch as interim!). And that's been plenty of time to observe the trajectory of the program. I've got the valleys ("0 and 11 O'Leary" in 2004) and peaks (2013's Fiesta Bowl win) in there.

All of this is my roundabout way of saying that I've never seen a time when players leaving early for the NFL draft was such a potential loss to the team. This year saw Junior WR Breshad Perriman and Redshirt Sophomore CB Jacoby Glenn enter the draft. And of course last year, Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson left school early (a side note: how dangerous would the 2014 team have been with Bortles and Johnson as the offensive stars?). By the way, that's more NFL draft early entrants in two back-to-back years than in the remainder of program history[1].

It's obvious that the 2015 team would have been better with Perriman and Glenn. This past season, Perriman led the Knights in receptions (50), yards (1044), yards per catch (20.9), and touchdowns (9), standing out above the rest of the most talented WR corps UCF has ever had. Perriman became the first UCF WR with 1,000 yards receiving since Mike Sims-Walker in 2006.[2] Glenn had his own stellar season en route to being recognized as a second team AP All-American (and if you like first "x" since "y" factoids, how does UCF's first player named to an AP All-American team since Kevin Smith in 2007?). Glenn ended the regular season ranked third in the country in interceptions and passes defended. He was also named the AAC's Co-Defensive Player of the Year.

Perriman and Glenn will be missed this upcoming season, no doubt. The loss here is compounded by key players graduating from their units. Gone now are WRs J.J. Worton (of "The Catch" fame), Rannell Hall, Joshua Reese, and Jackie Williams.[3] Ditto key players from the secondary -- Clayton Geathers, Brandon Alexander, and Jordan Ozerities. The turnover of so many starters presents an obvious problem.

So why do I see this as the "good kind" of problem? I look at this as a sign of the growth of the program and its success on the field. UCF has identified, recruited, and developed players who have a viable shot at the NFL - and who are good enough to make the jump early. In Perriman's case, it may even mean a chance at being drafted in the first round (though he's certainly no worse than a day two selection in my mind). When you're having success as a program, players will have the opportunity to take advantage of it. I view this as a developmental mark for the Knights.

The question going forward, of course, is how fast UCF can reload.


[1] Your other early entrants? WR Charles Lee, RB Kevin Smith, CB Josh Robinson.
[2] Check back later this month for an Underdog Dynasty 2015 NFL Draft Profile on Perriman, where I'll be singing his praises some more.
[3] Who never had the impact I was so sure he would after transferring from UAB. But still.