UCF Knights Coaching Search and Candidates: An Initial Reaction

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/10/25/9611786/ucf-knights-coaching-search-and-candidates-an-initial-reaction

It's an unusual circumstance to resign twice in rapid succession. Two weeks ago, George O'Leary resigned from his gig as UCF's interim athletic director to focus on his work as head coach of the football team. Now, O'Leary has resigned the head coach gig in the wake of a brutal loss to the Houston Cougars.

The Knights now sit at 0-8, with no reason to believe that the team will notch a win in what remains of the season.

Understandably, UCF fans are eager to turn to the question of who will occupy the head coaching job on a non-interim basis (QB Coach Danny Barrett holds the reins for now). At this early stage, most of the musings at this point are necessarily speculative.

So let's speculate, shall we?

Danny Barrett. If you're the interim guy, you've got to be at least mentioned in the conversation. Still, it seems unlikely that Barrett would get the nod. This feels more like a "caretaker" choice, similar to the Knights last interim coach, Alan Gooch (Gooch presided over two losses following the firing of Mike Kruczek in 2003, and was replaced by O'Leary in 2004). Barrett is in his fifth year on the UCF staff, having coached the RBs for four years and the QBs this season.

It would not be a flashy hire, but it wouldn't be outlandish either. Barrett has head coaching experience in the CFL with the Saskatchewan Roughriders (six years worth of it). Promoting internally would be consistent with what has often felt like a philosophy of internal loyalty at UCF. Still, it's difficult to believe that the Knights could make enough noise with Barrett at the helm to give him a serious crack at being hired as head coach.

Brent Key.

[Update: UCF has now confirmed that Brent Key will not be the next head coach. And UCF will need to pay him $700k over twenty-four months as a result. Sign].

Nope. Nope. Nope. If you're on staff and don't get named the interim guy, you're not going to get the job on a permanent basis either. And in some ways, it's too bad. Brent Key was clearly being groomed as the George O'Leary successor, and had been tremendously loyal to GOL and the UCF program. It was obvious going into this season following much staff shuffling that this was going to be Key's audition (a fact reinforced when GOL accepted the interim AD job, necessarily requiring more delegation). And despite many circumstances outside of Key's control (i.e., the terrible injury luck), that audition was a flop. Having tethered his star to GOL's ultimately ended up being the wrong call for Key.

It would be nice if loyalty, passion, and sacrifice were enough. Unfortunately, they are not. Thanks for your service Brent Key. Next man up.

Tom Herman, Justin Fuente, Matt Rhule. No, no, and no. As long as we're eliminating candidates, let's get this out of the way (because we know someone out there is curious): none of the ascendant coaching stars in the AAC are coming over. I know the Knights owned the AAC last year and in 2013 (winning the inaugural championship outright in 2013 and sharing that honor in 2014). And I get that UCF stomped Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl in 2013. But these would still be fundamentally lateral moves to a team in disarray. These are not options.

Mario Cristobal. I am firmly convinced that the Knights should jump on Cristobal. Hiring a position coach (Cristobal is the offensive line coach at Bama) sounds strange only to someone who has not followed Cristobal's career. He's (relatively) young, and certainly energetic, which presents a break from what has felt like the aging and decay of the GOL era this season.

Cristobal was the head coach at FIU from 2007-2012. He was the program architect, taking the Golden Panthers to back-to-back bowl games and a milestone road win at Louisville in a year when the Cardinals would go on to be Big East co-champs. After a bit of backsliding, FIU tossed him out in what was an undoubtedly rash move.

He's a Florida guy, which is appealing for a program that has seldom succeeded in capitalizing on Florida recruiting. In addition to his experience at FIU, Cristobal was a player at UM and also had two head coaching stints with the Canes as well. Cristobal is a heck of a recruiter and also has a track record of identifying and pursuing the kind of under-recruited guys who can become stars (T.Y. Hilton, anyone?).

Here is where I won't even pretend to be dispassionate: Cristobal is the guy the Knights need. Let's go and get him.

And let's do it before UM does.

Lane Kiffin or your favorite mercenary of choice. With his reputation, former Oakland Raiders head coach, Vols head coach, and Trojans head coach Lane Kiffin inevitably will be a name tossed out there by the commentariat. But hiring Kiffin (or any other candidate who would obviously view the job as a stepping stone) seems inconsistent with the UCF approach, which seems to be focused on a head coach who would stay at the program for a significant period of time (thus the hire of a disgraced GOL in 2004, and the unsuccessful attempt to anoint Key his successor).

That's not to say it's a bad approach necessarily, just not what I would predict UCF to do. Heck, Houston has done pretty well with hiring guys who have gotten hot and moved on (Art Briles, Kevin Sumlin, and presumably Tom Herman will follow this pattern). But consistency has seemed more appealing to the UCF athletic department.

Will Muschamp or Al Golden? Heck, when I started writing this post, Al Golden still had a job. It's natural to speculate about the two most recent head football coaches at more established programs in the state of Florida.

Muschamp's tenure at Florida was absolutely dire and characterized by stellar defenses and an offense that played not to lose. He's a great recruiter and a tremendous defensive coach. If he learned from his mistakes at UF, he could make a very fine head coach (and I expect him to get the chance again). Would he want to leave the DC role at Auburn after a year to be a head coach again? Could UCF make a serious play for him? It would be an interesting hire, but would probably leave Knights fans with some misgivings.

Al Golden: no. Please no. While there's some inevitable hey-he-was-the-head-coach-at-a-big-Florida-program appeal, he failed to accomplish anything of note at UM. Golden failed to win enough home state recruiting battles, sometimes seeming to look too much to the northeast (sound familiar, Knights fans?).

Ultimately, it's hard to guess where UCF might ultimately go with its coaching search. It's just been so long since the Knights were looking to hire a head coach, and the program has progressed far beyond where it was at that time.

For now, Knights fans are eager to have something to talk about besides this disastrous, winless season.

Houston Cougars overcome slow start to crush UCF Knights, 59-10

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/10/24/9607658/houston-cougars-ucf-knights-recap

UCF Knights vs. Houston Cougars: Preview, TV, Radio, Start Time, Betting Line

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/10/23/9601490/ucf-knights-vs-houston-cougars-preview-tv-radio-start-time-betting

It's winless UCF's second consecutive match-up against an undefeated team.  The Houston Cougars travel to UCF for the Knights' homecoming game ranked #21 in the AP poll and #22 in the Coaches poll.

The Cougars are red hot and they're going to do bad, bad, things to the Knights tomorrow.

Start time: Sat., Oct. 24 at Noon.

TV: ESPNews

Location: Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando, FL

Radio: 96.9-FM & 740-AM - Orlando

Betting Line: Houston is a 22.5 point favorite.

The Series: UCF has been historically dominant against Houston, and owns a 5-1 record. The match-up has been mostly a tight one, with five of the games decided by seven points or less. The last two games in the series have had ridiculously tight endings.

In 2013, UCF edged Houston thanks to a pass break up in the end zone on fourth down:

Last year's game had an even wilder ending. Brandon Alexander forced Houston QB Greg Ward Jr.'s fumble through the end zone for a touchback, preventing what would have been the Cougar's potentially game-tying touchdown:

Well. Brandon Alexander isn't here anymore.

Houston Outlook: We don't know what George O'Leary is going to say to his team prior to their matchup with the Cougars on Saturday, but whatever it is won't be enough.   The Cougars demolished Tulane 42-7 last week, scoring a touchdown on the first play of the game and cruising from there.  Granted, at 2-4, the Green Wave far from what you would call "respectable", but the fact remains that Houston took care of business.  Now, UH gets to face (read: feast) an 0-7 UCF team that unofficially leads the nation in lowlights.

Not that the Cougs need any help.  Houston is ranked fifth nationally in points (45.7) and yards (554.7) per game, while allowing only 21.3 points and 375.7 yards per game.  The offense also averages 6.6 yards per play, good enough for 14^th in the nation.  Quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. has been central to Houston's success this season, accounting for 23 total touchdowns (14 rushing, nine passing) so far.  He's completing 71% of his passes, totaling 1524 yards and is averaging 6.78 yards per carry on the ground.  Ward, Jr. and the rest of the Cougar offense is more than capable of steamrolling the Knights, especially on the ground.

Defensively, the Cougs have the nation's leading tackler in linebacker Elandon Roberts.  Roberts has 50 total tackles through six games.  While the Cougar defense has struggled at times, don't expect that to continue against UCF, who ranks dead last nationally in total offense and averages only 3.87 yards per play and 15.7 points per game.

UCF Outlook: We hope The Basement is stocked up on kegs, because this won't be the week that UCF finally wins.

The Knights had opportunities last week in a 30-16 loss to Temple. The defense made plays (including finally an interception - Shaquill Griffin's pick six). But the offense continued to be absurdly bad, including QB Justin Holman who has been a disaster since coming back from injury against UConn. His stat line in two games back is a combined 37/81 for 322 yards, 1 TD, and 5 interceptions. Last week, UCF had four turnovers that gave field position inside Temple territory and only got a total of three points on them. The Knights had a staggeringly bad 134 yards of total offense. Things are . . . bad.

It's never a good sign when the most laudatory part of the team is the play of the kicker. We are really scrapping the bottom of the optimism barrel when we see newspaper articles raving about kicker play. That said, congratulations Matthew Wright! Despite missing what would have been a game-winning field goal against FIU, Wright's performance means the kicking game is probably the most functional part of this team. He's hit his last eight field goals (good enough to tie him for the eighth most consecutive field goals by a UCF player). He's missed only that game-losing attempt against FIU.

No way are the Knights going to be able to keep pace with the Cougars, despite a defense that is finally getting (some) things done. Iowa State transfer T.J. Mutcherson (whom we predicted to give the UCF secondary a boost this year) made an impact in his first UCF start, with seven tackles (one for a loss), a forced fumble, and two fumble recoveries last week. And of course Shaquill Griffin showed some ability with the aforementioned pick six - UCF's first defensive touchdown since 2012.

But none of this will be enough. Expect the Knights' march to 0-12 to continue tomorrow.

Temple Owls vs UCF Knights Final Score Recap: Owls Win 30-16 as Thomas Lights up the Linc

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/10/18/9561959/temple-owls-vs-ucf-knights-final-score-recap

UCF's George O'Leary Stepping Down form Interim AD Gig

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/10/12/9511767/ucfs-george-oleary-stepping-down-from-interim-ad-gig-remaining-head

UCF Knights vs. Temple Owls: Preview, TV, Radio, Betting Line, Start Time

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/10/16/9555745/ucf-knights-vs-temple-owls-preview-tv-radio-betting-line-start-time

Temple football is ascendant. UCF football is in a crater. It's a virtual certainty that each team's "perfect" record will continue on Saturday (which is to say, UCF ought to fall to 0-7 and Temple ought to move on to 6-0).

The inimitable Bill C's Week 7 S&P+ Picks post has Temple's win probability at 97.4%.

So you're saying there's a chance.

Start time: 7:30 PM, EST

TV: CBS Sports Network

Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pa.

Radio: 96.9-FM & 740-AM - Orlando

Betting Line: Temple is a 21.5 point favorite. That's being kind to the hapless Knights.

The Series: UCF is 2-0 against Temple, including, of course J.J. Worton's famous catch in 2013:

Last year, UCF jumped out to a 17-0 first quarter lead and cruised to a 34-14 win at home.

Temple Outlook: AAC East Leader Temple should clearly cruise against division bottom-dweller UCF. Temple has looked very good this year, especially in early season wins against Penn State and Cincinnati.

The defense has really been stellar. They boast a success rate of 31.3%, good for tenth best in the nation. Opposing teams have averaged only 14.4 points per game against the Temple defense. And they've stifled opposing run games, to the tune of allowing only 97.2 yards per game (eleventh best in the country).

Statistically, the Owls' offense has not impressed. Temple is putting up an average of 195.8 yards passing and 151.8. And Temple's runs have been stuffed far more often than they should be (don't worry Owls fans - UCF is not in any position to take advantage of this or anything else). But Temple has enjoyed excellent field position thanks to its special teams play and defense.

The trio of QB PJ Walker, RB Jahad Thomas and WR Robby Anderson stands out for Temple on offense. Walker has looked great overall this year, and has thrown for 914 yards, 7 TDs, and 2 INTs. Thomas, a converted defensive back, has established himself as one of the best running backs in the conference. And Anderson is the team's leading receiver with 220 yards and 4 TDs.

UCF Outlook: Well, the Knights aren't the worst team in the FBS (North Texas Mean Green, step on up and bring that 66-7 loss to Portland State with you, please!). But they are close to it. There's little good to say about the Knights and even less argument why they might be able to win.

Last week, we were hopeful the Knights would be buoyed by the return of QB Justin Holman (who had been injured since the first series against Stanford in Week 2) and Junior RB Dontravious Wilson.

HAH!

Wilson played sparingly, with some time on special teams, a couple of catches, and no carries. Holman was a dreadful 27/50 for 255 yards, a touchdown, and three interceptions. I remain a firm believer in Holman, who looked like the bright spot of the team in Week 1 action against FIU, and who had some terrific moments last year. But whether it was due to "rust" or still recovering from injury, everything for Holman was out of sorts last week against UConn (and it was the second year in a row that the Huskies had Holman's number). Given the state of the offensive line and the wide receiving corps, there's no reason why things should look better against the Owl's superior defense.

That's a UCF theme for this year really: there's no reason to believe things will improve until next season.

Sure, Coach George O'Leary is now focused solely on coaching, having abandoned the interim AD gig that he had held simultaneously. But GOL appears very much a head coach who delegates, and was insistent when he took it that the interim AD job would not take so much time as to be a distraction. So it seems unlikely that an increase in football focus will bring improvement on the field.

Knights fans, your best bet to avoid driving yourselves crazy is to focus on the young players getting great early opportunities on the field, and hope that this will translate to a solid and experienced team in a couple years. The Knights have now played 71% of their 2015 signing class and fourteen current or former walk-ons this year. And yes, one of the latter accounted for the safety the Knights gave up to UConn when he left the end zone, stepped back in, and knelt down.

But still. Hope for the future. Amiright?

University of Complete Futility: UCF Knights Destroyed 40-13 by UConn Huskies

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/10/10/9494531/university-of-complete-futility-ucf-knights-destroyed-40-13-by-uconn

Just another Saturday at the University of Complete Futility, folks. More injuries, more bad mistakes, more baffling choices. A week after an utter collapse against Tulane -- which I thought was the rock bottom for UCF -- the Knights grabbed a shovel and started digging.

The Knights finally got Junior quarterback Justin Holman back, but the QB play remained poor. The Knights also got Dontravious Wilson back, finally. Or sort of, at least. The nominal first string running back played a bit on special teams a bit and had a couple receptions very late in the game.

Holman started with a dink-and-dunk (but fairly promising) drive, which saw nine straight passes from the Knights to reach the UConn four yard line. Redshirt Freshman RB C.J. Jones got the Knights to the one on the next play, but the Knights failed to punch in the touchdown, settling for a field goal.

And that was the best non-garbage time drive for the Knights. Holman played badly (but without much help from his young wide receivers, who dropped a bunch of passes). Holman finished 27/50 for 255 yards, a touchdown pass to Nick Patti, and three interceptions. The first two picks were very bad: each of UConn's drives following the picks resulted in a touchdown. And they came near the end of the half, as though just to ensure Knights fans harbored no hope of a rally -- this Knights team is not capable of overcoming what was then a 23-3 deficit at the half. Holman's third pick came on one of the Knights' better drives, albeit in garbage time down 40-3.

There were many moments of utter futility for the Knights throughout the game. Surrendering third down conversions to the Huskies on 20+ yard passes on UConn's first drive. Any of Holman's picks. All of the UCF defenders bouncing off of UConn running back Arkeel Newsome on his third quarter touchdown runs. Also the punt fumbled by Chris Johnson in the third quarter (you may remember him from last week, when he fumbled directly into the arms of one of the two Tulane defensive backs who caught him after a 62 yard pass). In fact, let's count the entire third quarter, in which UConn outscored UCF 17-0, as futile.

It turns out that it's easy to identify the sad moment that best encapsulates UCF's nightmare today. And it happened early. With the score 7-3 in the first quarter, UConn kicked off . . . and Hayden Jones caught it, stepped out of the end zone, stepped back in, and knelt to give UConn the safety.

Of course that's what happened.

The Knights also continued to suffer injuries. C.J. Jones had some promising runs, but found himself dinged up and limping off the field. Far worse, CB Jeremy Boykins left the game wearing a neck brace and in an ambulance. Always a scary situation, and our thoughts are with him.

This was an unmitigated disaster for the Knights, who have no reason to believe things will get better this season. Congratulations to the Huskies, and especially to Bob Diaco. Dang, that guy knows when to declare a rivalry. UConn now owns a 2-1 record over the Knights. And who knows - we may even have a competitive game in the "Civil Conflict," or "The ConFLiCT," or whatever it is. But it sure wasn't this year.

I can't write a recap for a game this bad without saying a big thank you to the UCF fans who stayed through the end of the game. You are earning your place in football Heaven for this.

UCF Knights v. UConn Huskies: Preview, TV, Radio, Betting Line, Start Time

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/10/9/9484743/ucf-knights-v-uconn-huskies-preview-tv-radio-betting-line-start-time

Welcome to the first official installment of the "Civil ConFLiCT." (Get it? The capital "FL" is for Florida and the capital "CT" is for Connecticut and the "o" is for OHGODWHY).

This summer, UConn Head Coach unilaterally declared a rivalry with UCF, dubbing it the "Civil Conflict" The notion to capitalize the state abbreviations would only materialize later during AAC media day, when Bob Diaco was on fire during the coaches forum.

I don't think anyone can credibly suggest that this match-up is a rivalry, though thanks to Diaco, it is a (very weird) trophy game. This year it's all about two teams desperate for wins. Or in the Knights' case, a win.

And with Junior QB Justin Holman back instead of the Bo Schneider dumpster fire, maybe it will even happen this week.

Start time: October 10, 2015 at 3:45 PM EST.

Location: Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando, FL.

TV: ESPNews.

Radio: 96.9 FM and 740-AM - Orlando, Sirius 119, XM 203.

Betting Line: UCF is a 2.5 point favorite.

The Series: We're tied at 1-1. In 2013, UCF destroyed UConn 62-17. The Huskies beat the Knights in Holman's turnover-plagued game last year 37-29. Bob Diaco only listed this second score on the "Civil Conflict" trophy he created.

The 2014 loss at UConn was also the Knights' only AAC loss until last week's disaster at Tulane.

The Opponent: Good news Knights fans: we are playing another terrible offense. UConn is averaging 15.8 points per game on offense. The 2-3 Huskies are a bad team. The Huskies opened the season with wins over Villanova and Army and then promptly dropped three in a row to Mizzou, Navy, and BYU.

QB Bryant Sheriffs has been pretty decent, but doesn't always take care of the football (BYU scored tend points off two Sheriffs picks to allow BYU to pull away last week).

UConn sports a solid run defense thanks to guys like DT Julian Campenni and LB Luke Carrezola. They have an opportunity to do a lot of damage against an anemic UCF rushing attack - the Knights turned in negative thirty-five yards rushing last week. And while it feels like it just can't be that bad again, Knights fans should be rightly nervous.

UCF Outlook: Folks, we are 0-5. The outlook for the Knights is never going to be "good" this season. But last week against Tulane may have been the rock bottom and established a new standard for utter futility - perfectly encapsulated by the following three play sequence:

1.      Bo Schneider completes a 62 yard pass to WR Chris Johnson. Johnson is somehow caught from behind by two Tulane players, one of whom punches the ball out directly into the other's arms.

2.      Tulane QB Tanner Lee throws a 49 yard touchdown pass and Tulane hits the extra point.

3.      Bo Schneider throws a pick.

I can't promise a win against the Huskies. But I am going to make a bold prediction: you will not see a sequence of three plays that awful on Saturday against the Huskies. Junior QB Justin Holman is back, according to head coach/interim athletic director/we-get-to-blame-you-for-everything-now-right George O'Leary (of course, Dontravious Wilson was supposed to be back last week,[1] but that didn't pan out, so . . . ). Holman had been cleared last week for the Tulane game, but did not travel because he apparently wasn't yet comfortable throwing with sufficient speed or accuracy.

O'Leary also announced that WR Taylor Oldham, who has been out since getting injured in the Spring game, will be back. He will be added to a wide receiver corps that is basically playing anyone healthy at this point.

Holman's return ought to give the Knights a bit of a punch this week. But remember, Holman's not a panacea. UCF can't run the ball. The offensive line is terrible, not only in run blocking, but in protecting the QB. Last week, for example, Schneider was sacked seven times.

This game is as good as any left on the schedule for the Knights to finally cobble together their first win of the season. But when you're this bad, it's hard to be too hopeful.

---

[1] This week, O'Leary said: "I'm waiting to see if Wilson can run full speed. I was told last week he was ready to go, but not from me watching. I didn't think he could cut like he needed to cut in a game, so that's why he didn't play. This week, he has to get ready to play and stuff and go from there."

Tulane Wins Pillow Fight Against UCF

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/10/3/9446573/tulane-green-wave-beats-ucf-knights-45-31

Knights Injury Situation to Improve In Advance of Tulane Game

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/10/3/9444361/knights-injury-situation-to-improve-in-advance-of-tulane-game

The Knights have suffered from remarkably bad injury luck en route to their 0-4 start this season. Fortunately, things should start getting a little better this week when Dontravious Wilson returns.

Things are pretty dire for the winless UCF Knights right now. The best thing that can be said about this team is that its poor performance on the field will result in lots of fans getting free beer on Saturday (though hopefully, not beyond that).

The Knights have been cursed with terrible injury luck. UCF leads the nation in most games missed by injured players on offense. Starting QB Justin Holman, WR Taylor Oldham, WR Jordan Franks, C Joey Grant, OL Chavis Dickey, WR Jordan Akins, HB Joseph Puopolo, and RB Dontravious Wilson have missed a combined twenty-three games.

But there is - at least a little - good news in advance of the game against Tulane. Junior running back Dontravious Wilson is back, having recovered from a PCL injury he suffered in the first game of the season (a miserable 15-14 loss to FIU). In his limited time this year, Wilson has twelve carries for 34 yards. But he was productive in his (mostly off the bench) opportunities last year, when he rushed for 347 yards and 3 TDs.

It's welcome news for the Knights. UCF's options at running back began depleting before the season started, when Micah Reed transferred (he had slipped down the depth chart to fourth string over the course of spring). Then Wilson suffered the injury against FIU, and Will Stanback performed terribly (0.6 yards per carry!) in relief for the remainder of that game. Freshman Taj McGowan got the start against Stanford, and by last week, Stanback was off the team. The Knights were down to McGowan and C.J. Jones primarily carrying the rock against Furman and South Carolina (plus some Nick Patti from the wildcat, especially against Furman).

Wilson's return should help boost an offense that continues to be awful on the whole. And it certainly restores a semblance of depth at running back moving into conference play. Wilson is not a panacea however: a good deal of blame for lack of success in the running game should be laid at the feet of the offensive line.

Which is nice, because today's game is one of the more winnable ones remaining on UCF's slate. At least for now, the Knights still can lay claim to a track record of dominating AAC play (the Knights are 15-1 in conference since the AAC's inception, won the inaugural league title outright, and tied with Memphis and Cincinnati last year as co-champions). That conference record is certainly going to get sullied this year, but hopefully it doesn't start against Tulane (against whom UCF has a 5-1 record)

The biggest boost of course will come when starting QB Justin Holman is ready to play. And that's apparently not quite yet. Holman is now being considered "day-to-day," but there's no specific word on when he will be sufficiently recovered from the fracture to his right index finger to play. Which means that we can expect to endure more of Bo Schneider's often cringe-worthy play at quarterback.

And hope it all looks a bit better when Holman joins Wilson back on the field.