Sunday, September 24, 2017

UCF Defense Dominates Maryland, Knights Cruise to 38-10 Victory

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/9/23/16355744/ucf-knights-central-florida-maryland-terrapins-terps-recap-2017-pittman-scott-frost-taj-mcgowan-hill

It ends up that this was pretty easy. In a game in which each team lost a key offensive player to injury, the UCF Knights defense controlled the line of scrimmage and hammered Maryland’s quarterbacks over and over. UCF now notches its first win over a Power Five program since beating Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl after the 2013 season.

The game was an early tug of war until Pat Jasinski leveled the Terps’ excellent freshman quarterback Kasim Hill. Hill left the field and did not return. It was all UCF after that. Backup RB Taj McGowan (a steady contributor and one of the few bright spots back in 2015) ran in two touchdowns, while TE Jordan Akins added a touchdown catch. In the fourth quarter, Adrian Killins Jr. ran for a touchdown and CB Mike Hughes snagged a pick six.

Undoubtedly injuries proved a factor. Hill’s loss was a turning point. The Terps had an early 3-0 lead until the injury, and the Knights outscored them 38-7 afterwards. But the injury to Hill doesn’t diminish the quality of this win for the Knights. UCF also played without starting RB Jawon Hamilton, who suffered an early non-contact injury. This was a win UCF earned.

The Knights defense was splendid. The line was especially murderous. Hill’s replacement for the Terps, Max Bortenschlager was clobbered throughout. The whole line performed well, but a special word is warranted for Jamiyus Pittman who had two monstrous sacks.

The Terps’ sole touchdown came on a drive extended by a flurry of UCF penalties. And it came too late in the game to raise anything but a false hope for the Terps.

The Knights’ offense was good though not outstanding. QB McKenzie Milton made mistakes, but Maryland could never make him pay. And importantly, the Knights never suffered a turnover. Ultimately, UCF had more than double Maryland’s total yardage: 428 to 197. That statistic says more about the bad positions the UCF defense inflicted on Maryland than it does about the Knights’ offense. Though to be fair, UCF played conservatively as the game wore on and things seemed out of reach for the Teps.

We have to reserve a final note for the UCF faithful who traveled to this game. They were loud from the beginning, and U-C-F chants could be heard on the broadcast early and often. This observation is exactly right:

This was a dominating victory in UCF’s marquee non-conference game. Let’s revel in it.

UCF Knights vs Maryland Terrapins: Preview, Start Time, TV, Betting Line, Prediction

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/9/22/16348520/ucf-knights-vs-maryland-terrapins-preview-start-time-tv-betting-line-prediction-series-record-terps

Start Time: September 23, 2017 at 3 PM ET.

TV: FS1

Radio: AM 740/FM 96.9 The Game

Location: Maryland Stadium.

Records: Maryland is 2-0, 0-0 Big Ten. UCF is 1-0, 0-0 AAC.

The Series: Maryland won the sole previous meeting last year. It was the first start for UCF QB McKenzie Milton (then a freshman), and though he made some big plays he also made a load of mistakes. The Terps prevailed in double overtime.

Betting Line: Maryland is a four point favorite.

UCF Knights Outlook: UCF fans sorely miss watching the Knights play football. The Knights opened the season on August 31 by absolutely dominating the FIU Panthers. The chaos of Hurricane Irma forced the cancellation of the Knights’ second scheduled game (which would have been against Memphis, and which has been fortunately rescheduled for September 30) and the Knights’ third game against Georgia Tech.

The oddity is that even though we’re in week 4, we still don’t know all that much about the Knights yet. We really haven’t seen the starters play many minutes at all this year – garbage time started very early in the opening week drubbing of the Panthers.

But what we have seen is promising. QB McKenzie Milton has taken serious strides forward in his sophomore year and had a career day in less than three and a half quarters of being on the field. The offensive line (a major liability last season and a question mark going into this one) gave him tons of time to throw. And a defense that had to replace many starters (including the entire secondary) looked excellent. The cornerback spot got a boost when transfer Mike Hughes entered the game.

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But that defense will be tested against an excellent Maryland offense. It will be strength against strength here – the Maryland rushing attack has been one of the best in the country while UCF’s front seven have been the stoutest part of the UCF defense.

Maryland Terrapins Outlook: Look, Maryland has looked really good this year (and been fun to watch). The Terps beat Texas in a wild opener and then blew away an obviously inferior Towson team. It’s also not the biggest sample size to judge from – Texas is questionable and Towson is of course an FCS program. But still, the Terps have looked like a scary team, especially on offense.

Freshman Kasim Hill stepped in at quarterback once Tyrell Pigrome suffered a season-ending injury against Texas (Pigrome won the game for Maryland in double overtime last year). Hill has mostly played mistake-free, and is currently 16/19 for 207 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions on the year. And wide receiver D.J. Moore has been absolutely dynamic and is a big play threat on the outside. The rushing attack is .really something else. RB Ty Johnson carried 12 times for 132 yards against Texas and had 124 yards on a mere five carries against Towson. That’s a 15.1 yard per carry average. The big play potential is a real risk – over thirteen percent of Maryland’s plays have gone for 20 or more yards.

The Terps defense has been at times fast and physical, but also can give up serious yardage. They surrendered almost 500 yards to Texas (big plays and Texas penalties mitigated the damage the Longhorns were able to inflict on those yards) and even struggled for a quarter against Towson.

Prediction: I foresee a potential shootout here. I believe both teams will be able to move the ball and that the defenses will be seriously tested. But I have more confidence right now that Maryland is the better team. It may be a bit cynical of me to think so, but look – the body of evidence for UCF is so small. Maybe I’ll feel more confident in these Knights after I’ve seen the starters play more than two and a half quarters or so.

Right now, I’ll go with Maryland 42, UCF 35.

For more on this game, check out our “Five Questions” with Maryland blog Testudo Times and our reciprocal answers over here.

I’ll tell you what – I am pretty tired of watching UCF’s future opponents and not getting to see our own Knights take the field. But with a tough game at Maryland this Saturday, we finally get to see the UCF Knights in action again.

There have been changes to the schedule, prompted by Hurricane chaos. The once-cancelled Memphis game is now back on the calendar. We’ll play the Tigers on September 30 (I am so glad to have been wrong about the odds of this getting done). This takes the Maine Black Bears off the schedule - Memphis and UCF did not share a bye week, necessitating another cancellation to slot Memphis back in. It’s a small price to pay for the return of a marquee cross-divisional game.

And unfortunately, Georgia Tech is off the schedule, a casualty of lack of practice time in advance of the scheduled game. The Yellow Jackets – like the Black Bears -- now drop off this list.

Our former and future opponents, in schedule order:

FIU Panthers (1-1 Overall, 0-0 Conference USA)

The Panthers also suffered schedule chaos at the hands of Irma. Their game against Indiana was cancelled.

Maryland Terrapins (2-0 Overall, 0-0 Big Ten)

Finally – an opponent we’ll actually get to play as scheduled. The Terps were off this past week, and have previously shredded Texas and blown away Towson. They are a dangerous team, especially on offense. And frankly deserve to be ranked.

Memphis Tigers (2-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

The Tigers are riding high after edging #25 UCLA in a 48-45 shootout. For the first time this season,[1] Memphis QB Riley Ferguson showcased his tremendous ability – he threw for 398 yards, six touchdowns, and only a single interception.

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With only a game against the Southern Illinois Salukis before they play us, it’s clear the Tigers will be undefeated on September 30.

Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Caught a break against a bad MAC team in Miami (OH) and survived, 21-17, thanks to a pick six. Bearcats QB Hayden Moore continues to make mistakes, including throwing two second half interceptions of his own.

Cincinnati looks like the third or fourth best team in the (frankly not very good) AAC East.

ECU Pirates (0-3 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

In the latest of what’s been a trio of ugly losses, ECU was blown out by Virginia Tech, 64-17. A (very small) bright spot – the Pirates outscored the Hokies 17-7 in the first quarter.

I have confidence the Pirates are the worst team in the conference. Yes, worse than UConn. This will be a gimmie for the Knights.

Navy Midshipmen (2-0 Overall, 1-0 AAC)

Navy had a bye week, and resumes play on Saturday against a Cincinnati team they ought to soundly beat.

SMU Mustangs (2-1 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

The Mustangs suffered a 56-36 loss against TCU. It was a closer game than the score might suggest. The Mustangs were competitive throughout, but their defense collapsed in the fourth quarter, yielding two consecutive scoring drives. And then Mustangs QB Ben Hicks chucked a pick-six.

Pencil our game against in the Mustangs in as a likely shootout (a bit of a theme for our AAC West opponents, I’m thinking).

UConn Huskies (1-1 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Lost to Virginia by 20 points. Didn’t score in the first half. This is a poor Huskies team. Like the ECU game, I see this as an easy win for the Knights.

Temple Owls (2-1 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Beat a winless UMass team 29-21. And this was a week after squeaking past Villanova. Though the reigning conference champion looks like it will not be a force in the division this year, the Owls have at least found competent QB play in Logan Marchi.

USF Bulls (3-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Soundly beat their Big Ten opponent, Illinois. This was the Bulls’ first game this season in which it looked like they deserved to be a ranked team.

USF is fast and physical on defense. The Bulls clamped down on the Fighting Illini, who just could not get anything meaningful going offensively.

But it was also another slow and sloppy start for USF on offense and special teams. Eventually, someone might be able to make them pay for these errors. But it’s not going to happen any earlier than October 28, when the Bulls play the Houston Cougars. Maybe. There’s a pretty high likelihood USF will be undefeated when they visit Spectrum Stadium on Black Friday.

Previous ‘Know Your Foes’: Week 1, Week 2.

[1] Memphis’s game against ULM was played in heavy rain, prompting the Tigers to lean heavily on the run.

Know Your Foes: UCF’s Opponents After Week Two

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/9/12/16284298/know-your-foes-ucfs-opponents-after-week-two

Hurricane Irma denied Knights fans what would have been an exciting cross-divisional game against AAC west contender Memphis. And we were likewise denied the opportunity to see divisional foes USF and UConn play. The Georgia Tech game scheduled for Saturday has also been cancelled.

Our former and future opponents, in schedule order:

FIU Panthers (1-1 Overall, 0-0 Conference USA)

Good for the Panthers who, like FAU, managed to be a Florida school to squeeze some football in despite Hurricane Irma. FIU pulled this off by moving their home opener against Alcorn State to Legion Field in Birmingham.

The Panthers won 17-10. So UCF’s week one beatdown wasn’t much of a quality win. In fairness to FIU, this game shouldn’t have been quite so close. FIU dominated the box score. But FIU squandered some scoring opportunities - WR Thomas Owens (he had the 75 yard TD catch against the Knights) fumbled on the Alcorn State 2 yard line and Jose Borreagles missed a field goal.

~~Memphis Tigers~~ ~~(1-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)~~

Wish the timing for this game had worked out; I predicted a good game and a Knights win. In a bizarre sequence of events, the game was moved up to Friday, and then canceled late Thursday night/early Friday morning after the Tigers’ plane had landed in Florida.

Rescheduling would be difficulty and – in my estimate – highly unlikely to occur. The Tigers and the Knights don’t share a bye week. There might be a slim chance on September 30 when Memphis plays at Georgia State and UCF hosts Maine. Probably too many moving parts to make this work.

~~Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (1-1 Overall, 0-0 ACC)~~

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Oh, our scheduled home game against GT isn’t happening either.

That certainly seems a valid reason to not host the game at Spectrum Stadium. But UCF has not provided an explanation of why the game could not be moved to another site, or whether that was explored as an option.

We’ll drop Memphis and Georgia Tech off this list next time, because it’s hard to imagine these getting rescheduled.

Maryland Terrapins (2-0 Overall, 0-0 Big Ten)

Cruised past Towson 63-17. The outcome was never in doubt here and the Terps had a number of explosive plays. This is a dangerous team.

Maine Black Bears (1-1 Overall, 0-1 Colonial Athletic Association)

Beat Bryant 60-12. The Black Bears dominated.

Cincinnati Bearcats (1-1 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Played a better than expected game against #8 Michigan before losing 36-14. It was still an ugly performance by Cincinnati QB Hayden Moore who completed a mere 15-of-40 pass attempts for 132 yards. He also tossed two picks.

That the game was close for so long had more to do with Michigan’s sloppiness than Cincinnati’s successes.

ECU Pirates (0-2 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

The Pirates followed up a loss to an FCS program by failing totally against the West Virginia Mountaineers. This game was 49-3 at the half and ended up 56-20. ECU is likely the worst team in the AAC.

Navy Midshipmen (2-0 Overall, 1-0 AAC)

Edged Tulane 23-21. Navy was sloppy, with quarterback Zach Abey (who shared last week AAC offensive player of the week honors with UCF’s McKenzie Milton) fumbling twice and throwing an interception. Tulane played most of the game with backup quarterback Johnathan Brantley following an injury to starter Jonathan Banks.

SMU Mustangs (2-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Beat the University of North Texas 54-32. But UNT’s passing attack managed to shred the Mustangs. UNT quarterback Mason Fine racked up 424 yards passing and three touchdowns. The SMU pass defense is suspect.

UConn Huskies (1-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Didn’t get to play USF because of travel concerns arising from Irma.

Temple Owls (1-1 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Could have easily lost against the Villanova Wildcats, but ultimately prevailed 16-13. Frankly, the Owls were bailed out by the Wildcats’ poor execution. This is not a promising Temple team.

USF Bulls (2-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Our companions in Hurricane woe.

UCF Knights vs Memphis Tigers: Preview, Start Time, How to Watch, Prediction

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/9/7/16263332/ucf-knights-vs-memphis-tigers-preview-start-time-how-to-watch-prediction-betting-line

UPDATE: This game has now been cancelled due to Hurricane Irma. We wish everyone in Florida the best during this historic storm.

Start Time: As a result of Hurricane Irma, the game’s been moved earlier to Friday, September 8 at 6:30 PM.

TV: ESPNU, not ESPNews as originally scheduled (this was a recent update - even UCF’s game notes are out of date on this).

Live Coverage: AM 740/FM 96.9 The Game, ucfknights.co/FBLiveStats17 for live stats.

Location: Spectrum Stadium, Orlando, FL

Betting: Memphis is ever so-slightly the underdog at +3.

The Series: UCF has a dominating historical lead at 9-1. But the Tigers and the Knights haven’t played since 2013 (Justin Fuente’s second season as the Tiger’s head coach). UCF needed a pair of fumble recoveries for touchdowns in a nine second span to win that game, 24-17. The second one looked like this:

Memphis Outlook: Weather played a major role in the production for the Tigers last week. Rain and wind prevented Memphis from gaining much traction through the air, but the running game picked up the slack. Darrell Henderson and Patrick Taylor each surpassed the 100 yard mark on the ground in the absence of Doroland Dorceus. Under circumstances that made the offense predictable, this duo behind an impressive offensive line gave the Tigers another weapon on offense.

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Quarterback Riley Ferguson wasn’t given many attempts to throw the ball, and produced just 97 yards because of that. This is not indicative of the passing game, and Ferguson will get an opportunity to prove that. His receivers are also dangerous, and we saw what Tony Pollard can do on special teams as well.

The defense was looking to find new starters last week, and will be starting all over at certain spots this week due to injuries. Multiple defensive players sustained injuries that will keep them out of this game or longer. Jackson Dillon will miss this game, and his status for the future is unknown for now. Jared Gentry and Darian Porter were also injured last week, and will miss the remainder of the season. On top of that, Jonathan Wilson must sit out the first half due to a targeting penalty he was assessed in the second half. This is a group that needs to improve, but took big hits to its depth and starting rotations.

Special teams may provide the Knights a scare, as Pollard is one of the best kick returners in the nation. His 99 yard kick return against the Warhawks earned him AAC Special Teams Player of the Week.

The forecast projects rain once again for the Tigers, but that might play into their favor. They already have experience playing in these conditions, and that might be the edge they need.

UCF Outlook: The Knights looked great last week demolishing a clearly-overmatched FIU team. Sophomore quarterback McKenzie Milton displayed significant development from last season, and had an impressive stat line despite how early the game was in hand (16/21, 360 yards passing, 4 TDs). The Panthers aren’t a good team, but the tremendous performance by the Knights’ offense did much to soothe worries about how much better the offense would be than 2016.

This looked scarier for the Knights before the season started, especially given the question marks surrounding the cornerback position. The emergence of Mike Hughes last week - only thirteen days into his tenure with the program - helps solidify a position group that seemed week. Hughes came in after Chris Johnson got burned on a seventy-five yard touchdown pass (it was, in fairness, a perfectly thrown ball), and proved a steady hand at a position that needed one. Unless weather plays a significant role for Memphis (again), expect the UCF secondary to be tested early and often.

The Knights will also benefit from the Tigers’ depleted defense. There’s a great opportunity here for UCF’s young and promising players at the skill positions.

Predictions:

Joey Broback: If the weather results in rain, I like Memphis. UCF struggled to run the ball in good conditions against FIU, and rainy conditions would force them to run more. My answer would change if the was nice, but I’m guessing it will be poor playing conditions once again. Memphis wins 21-17.

Chas Short: I see a UCF win here. I’ve become more secure in how the defense has reloaded and replaced so many of last year’s starters. Memphis’s tighter than expected game last week is probably a bit of an aberration, but I still expect the Knights to be a bit better. I’ll assume it to be a tight game with a lot of offense, and call it 38-35.

Know Your Foes: UCF’s Opponents After Week One

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/9/6/16256202/ucf-university-of-central-florida-knights-scott-frost-mckenzie-milton-2017-schedule-opponents

Here is the most important revelation for the Knights following week one – the AAC East will be wide open after all. Half of the division just plain stinks. And USF – penciled in as presumptive division champ by me and pretty much everyone else -- looked underwhelming to bad in two games against what should have been clearly overmatched opponents. USF wasn’t the only team in the east to escape a loss to an FCS team and ECU got downright rocked by one. Based on an admittedly small body of work, the Knights look like the most impressive team in the East.

Our former and future opponents, in schedule order:

FIU (0-1 Overall, 0-0 Conference USA)

We crushed them this week. The 61-17 final score doesn’t even fully capture how much better the Knights are then the Panthers.

Memphis (1-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

AAC West opponent Memphis played a tighter than expected game in horrible weather against UL-Monroe. The unusual conditions make it a bit hard to draw firm conclusions about how they’ll look this week. The most significant development was the spate of injuries the Tigers suffered, especially by defensive players. Could be a shootout for the Knights.

Our game against the Tigers has now been bumped a day earlier, to Friday at 6:30 PM ET, as a result of hurricane concerns.

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Georgia Tech (0-1 Overall, 0-0 ACC)

Lost to a ranked Tennessee team despite racking up 655 yards of total offense. The Yellow Jackets suffered from terrible kicking (both field goal attempts missed and struggles on kickoffs) and turnovers. This is a vulnerable team defensively, but the offense could be a nightmare. Quarterback TaQuon Marshall, in his first start, ran for 249 yards and five touchdowns.

Maryland (1-0 Overall, 0-0 Big Ten)

D.J. Durkin’s Terps beat a ranked Texas team in Tom Herman’s debut for the Longhorns. It was a wildly entertaining game throughout.

Maryland QB Tyrrell Pigrome (you will of course remember him from sticking the knife into us last year) suffered an ACL tear in the third quarter. All the same, this game looks substantially more daunting now.

Maine (0-1 Overall, 0-1 Colonial Athletic Association)

Suffered a one point loss to New Hampshire thanks to a missed extra point (there’s a rivalry trophy here – the Brice-Cowell musket – that will stay with New Hampshire). The Black Bears kicking woes continues.

Interestingly enough, two of Maine’s conferencemates in the CAA – Stony Brook and James Madison – played AAC teams this week.

Cincinnati (1-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Our first of the AAC East teams that nearly lost to an FCS school (the mighty Austin Peay Governors!). The Governors outplayed the Bearcats on offense – the Bearcats had substantially fewer yards than their opponent. Cincinnati’s lackluster play reprised the latter part of the Tommy Tuberville era.

ECU (0-1 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Lost to James Madison, 34-14. JMU rocked the Pirates on the ground with 422 yards rushing. In fairness to poor ECU, JMU is the number one ranked FCS team and boasts the longest winning streak in the FCS (and has a 2-0 all time record against AAC teams). Still not going to be worried about ECU this year.

Navy (1-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Got punched in the mouth early by Lane Kififn’s crew at FAU. Then rallied with its methodical triple option offense to win 42-19. They’ll be a dangerous opponent for the Knights, though at least UCF will have already had to face a triple option team in Georgia Tech by this time.

SMU (1-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Took care of business and crushed FCS opponent Stephen F. Austin 58-14.

UConn (1-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Survived FCS Holy Cross 27-20. Think we’ll do fine against these guys.

Temple (0-1 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

Clobbered by Notre Dame, 49-16. The offensive line was dominated and the front seven need work. But it seems that the Owls have a steady hand a QB in Logan Marchi who went 19-for-35 for 235 yards and a pair of touchdowns without turning the ball over. I suspect this team winds up in the top half of the division.

USF (2-0 Overall, 0-0 AAC)

They may get their act together, but they’re clearly vulnerable now. In Week 0.5 (or whatever you prefer to call it), the Bulls fell down 16-0 early against a terrible San Jose State team before muscling back.

And in Week 1, the Bulls trailed FCS Stony Brook 10-7 at the half. Then they came back to win 31-17.

Not too many Bulls fans saw this poor performance:

By the way, that’s the take by a newspaper beat writer getting slammed by his readership for not watching the game.

Recap: UCF Knights Blow Out FIU Panthers, 61-17

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/8/31/16238234/recap-ucf-knights-central-florida-fiu-florida-international-panthers-mckenzie-milton-trequan-smith

At a final score of 61-17, we can’t really overstate how much better UCF looked than FIU. For UCF, it was exactly what you want to see in a cupcake-style opener. The Knights offense cruised and with a dominating early first half lead, there was plenty of opportunities for the back-ups to get playing experience.

UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton looked phenomenal, going 16/21 for 360 yards and four passing touchdowns. The sophomore showed a lot of trust for his receivers, especially Tre’Quan Smith (who had two touchdown receptions and drew so – many – pass interference penalties by overmatched FIU DBs). Milton sat with 8:21 left to go in the third quarter and the Knights up 47-10, opening the opportunity for freshman Noah Vedral to finish out the game. The sole egregious error[1] on Milton’s part was a terrible interception across the middle in the first half. And given Milton’s otherwise stellar performance, it was an easy error to overlook.

Vedral was far from the only UCF freshman to get meaningful play time in a game that was out of (FIU’s) hand so early. Much-heralded freshman running back Cordarrian Richardson came in when Vedral did and displayed some hard running. He pounded in a touchdown on his first drive to put the Knights up 54-10. Wide receiver Otis Anderson looked sharp despite stats that were not gaudy. Anderson arguably should have had a long touchdown reception but – according to the refs – failed to maintain control of the ball. And Gabriel Davis exceled with four receptions for 53 yards and a touchdown. Clearly the love was spread around. A total of thirteen different Knights caught passes. Four different running backs had touchdowns.

The UCF defense mostly contained FIU after the early going. The Knights defense earned a safety in the first half. Safeties Tre Neal and Kyle Gibson each had long turnover returns. Neal’s was an interception returned for twenty-nine yards, while Gibson scooped a fumble and ran it back for thirty-six yards. Though say this for FIU’s offensive line – they gave up only a single sack (by Alabama transfer Shawn Burgess-Becker). Perhaps fittingly, Burgess-Becker’s hit forced a fumble the Knights fell on to end the game.

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There was much to love about the aggressive calls by the UCF coaching staff throughout. UCF went for two after the opening touchdown (and got the points). The Knights went for for it four times on fourth and two-or-less (and converted each time). And Frost used timeouts very late in the second half to give the Knights another possession (which ended in a Matthew Wright field goal to put the Knights up 40-10).

We couldn’t see much of FIU this game, the Panthers were obscured by all the yellow flags. That’s being only a little facetious. The squad’s discipline started badly with key defensive back Niko Gonzalez getting ejected for targeting and melted down further as the game wore on. FIU wound up penalized a total of thirteen times for 153 yards.

The Panthers did manage to cobble together a few highlights. Alex McGough’s perfectly thrown seventy-five yard touchdown pass to Thomas Owens in the first quarter made it look like FIU might have a pulse. And in garbage time (which had begun early in the third quarter), Napoleon Maxwell had a great looking but utterly meaningless touchdown run. Overall it was a profoundly embarrassing outing for the Panthers and not remotely what FIU fans wanted out of Butch Davis’s debut.

UCF now looks forward to what should be a shootout against AAC West offensive juggernaut Memphis.

Not sure what FIU has to look forward to, but the Panthers play Alcorn State next.

[1] He also slid down in bounds with time winding down in the first half instead of getting out to stop the clock.

UCF Knights vs FIU Panthers: Preview, Start Time, TV, Prediction

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/8/30/16209250/ucf-knights-vs-fiu-panthers-preview-start-time-tv-prediction-betting-line-butch-davis-scott-frost

Start Time: Thursday, August 31, 2017 at 6 PM ET

TV: CBS Sports Network

Live Coverage: AM 740/FM 96.9 The Game, ucfknights.co/FBLiveStats17 (for, uh, the live stats).

Location: Spectrum Stadium,[1] Orlando, FL

The Series: 3-2 all time, UCF has the edge. Last year, the Knights crushed the Panthers 53-14 on a drizzling evening in Miami where UCF fans greatly outnumbered the home team.

Betting Line: As of this writing, UCF is a 17 point favorite.

UCF Outlook: This will be a better UCF team than the one that brutalized FIU last year. The Knights return many key pieces on offense last year – including sophomores McKenzie Milton (184.5 QBR against the Panthers), Jawon Hamilton (who had a largely quiet outing against FIU last time), and Adrian Killins, Jr. (who shredded the Panthers on relatively few touches - 6 rushes for 86 yards and 2 receptions for 69 yards).

But the overall question for the Knights is how much will the offense improve versus how much a defense that has to replace some of its most productive players could regress (though if you believe head coach Scott Frost, the defense could be even better this year). Keep an eye especially on the offensive line (which struggled badly as last season progressed) and the unproven cornerbacks who will face veteran receivers and a senior quarterback in FIU’s Alex McGough.

UCF’s defensive line is going to be a strength of the team (frankly, the entire front seven will be), and should be an interesting match-up against the Panthers’ veteran offensive line.

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It’s a key win for UCF to pick up. The start of the schedule is difficult. After FIU, the Knights play what should be an excellent Memphis team, and P5 foes Georgia Tech and Maryland. UCF can ill afford a faceplant here.

FIU Outlook: The Butch Davis era at FIU begins! Davis of course had a stellar tenure at the University of Miami before going on to a stint in the pros and a 28-23 stretch at UNC – where he was canned amid NCAA allegations. His landing now at FIU adds to an impressive collection of head coaches at G5 Florida schools.

FIU fans will see if any of the old Butch coaching magic remains. The sixty-five year old hasn’t coached since 2010[2], so there’s certainly a danger of some rust, especially for the opener.

The Panthers are senior-laden. All over the two deep. It may, in fact, be the country’s most experienced roster.

NCAA Football: Florida International at Central Florida — Alex Gardner scoring a touchdown against UCF in 2015. Hopefully the defense is ready for FIU’s all-time career leading rusher this time.

FIU returns McGough, seven of the top right receiving targets from last year, running back Alex Gardner (and the two backs behind him), and a veteran offensive line. If the mention of Gardner gives UCF fans shivers, that’s because he wrecked the Knights in FIU’s 2015 victory.

The cautionary note – this team may have experience, but the record of this senior class is a paltry 13-23. Though obviously, only a certain amount of that responsibility falls to these players.

Prediction: I believe this FIU team could have a decent season. But I don’t think it starts here.

The Knights defense will click better than most suspect (despite the vulnerability at CB) and the key pieces on offense will have finally developed to the point where we can see a Scott Frost offense running at a Scott Frost tempo. I’ll call it UCF 40, FIU 14. A big win, but perhaps not as gaudy as last time out.

But hey, I’ve terribly underestimated the Panthers before.

[1] Yes, formerly known as Bright House Networks Stadium. Sigh. This is the problem with the corporate sponsorships.

[2] Nope, not counting being an advisor for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2012-13.

UCF Football 2017 Season Preview

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/8/27/16207654/ucf-knights-football-2017-season-preview-central-florida-shaquem-griffin-mckenzie-milton-scott-frost

The issue for the UCF Knights this season will be straightforward – how much the offense has improved versus how much the defense has regressed. The offense gets its key pieces back, but there are many starters to be replaced on defense, especially in the secondary. If the Knights can finally run a Scott Frost offense the way it ought to be run and can come close to last year’s production on defense, UCF will be a dangerous team.

Last Year

In 2016, the Knights rode a 6-6 regular season record to the Cure Bowl, where they were hammered by a fired-up Arkansas State team that overwhelmed the Knights’ porous offensive line. But don’t let the 6-7 final record make you think Knights fans were feeling down. As frustrating as that last loss was, after a winless 2015, 2016 is was just about the best losing season a fan could ask for.

The story was simple – the Knights beat the bad teams on the schedule, including drubbings of Cincinnati, Tulane, and ECU. But UCF just could not beat any good teams. Though they came close in a literal last second loss against conference champion Temple, a seven point loss against Houston, and a double overtime loss against P5 program Maryland, the Knights could not get over the hump.

Frost followed the season with the best recruiting class of any G5 school last year, buoyed especially with a flip of RB Cordarrian Richardson (the best prospect signed by a G5 school last year).

On Offense

Frost wants to run a spread offense focused on the running game and he wants to run it fast. Last year, the Knights did not come close. The offense was abysmal, hampered by an inability to find success on early downs. The reason was obvious – the offensive line played poorly (and got worse with Tyler Hudanick’s season-ending injury and continued to get worse as the season wore on) and did no favors for freshman QB McKenzie Milton (who also struggled with accuracy and turnovers).

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I predict that will change this year, and in Frost’s second season we’ll now see an offense that executes substantially better. Though I remain concerned about the line, meaningful improvement should be expected with another year of adjusting to the blocking schemes in this offense.

Quarterback play is the other big question on the offensive side of the ball. McKenzie Milton is the obvious choice to start and will need to have improved since last year. And he better not get injured. Behind him, the Knights are thin – UCF has a pair of true freshman in Noah Vedral and Darriel Mack, Jr. Spring game warrior Pete DiNovo left the program earlier this month. This leaves Milton as the only quarterback on the roster who has played in a game. Not ideal.

Elsewhere, Knights fans can feel confident. The running back position is excellent and deep. Expect it to be led by a pair of sophomores in Jawon Hamilton (more the every down back) and speedster Adrian Killins, Jr. The Knights also have a serviceable back in junior Taj McGowan (who had significant playing time in 2015 and meaningful opportunities in 2016) and the aforementioned Richardson. This position group is in good shape for the foreseeable future.

The receiving corps will shine if Milton improves. Redshirt Junior Tre’Quan Smith consistently impresses with spectacular catches. Sophomore Dredrick Snelson shows promise. And this could also be a great year for TE Jordan Akins. Unfortunately, UCF is without the reliable option of WR Tristan Payton for half the season as he serves a suspension for a failed drug test (tested positive for marijuana).

On Defense and Special Teams

The strength of DC Erik Chinander’s 3-4 defense carried the team in 2016. And though the defense will feature numerous new starters, it doesn’t necessarily have to fall off too much.

Be confident in the front seven. Jamiyus Pittman moves from noseguard to end (with Tony Guerad on the other end) and Trysten Hill slides over to NG. The back-ups are also reliable, ensuring a solid rotation behind what should be a great starting unit. Expect them to build on last year’s very good performance.

Behind them, linebacker Shaquem Griffin (last year’s AAC Defensive Player of the Year) will continue to be the heart and soul of the defense. In his second year at the position, he’s now gained more weight and gotten stronger. Junior Titus Davis will hold down the other OLB spot. The starting ILBs are Pat Jasinski and Chequan Burkett (who flirted with leaving the program, but did not ultimately do so). The two have 19 career starts between them. Also keep your eyes peeled also for when Shawn Burgess-Becker, the redshirt sophomore transfer from Alabama at OLB, appears in the rotation; he’s one of the most physical players on the roster.

But the secondary may be a weakness that limits the ability of the front seven to create havoc. With presumptive starting CB Nevelle Clarke suspended for six games for failing a drug test (the same test Payton failed, and also for marijuana use) both CB positions were up for grabs. The first depth chart has redshirt senior Chris Johnson (a former WR who had all of two tackles last year as a DB) and redshirt freshman Brandon Moore as the starters. This looks dicey. The safety position is in steadier hands with Tre Neal and Kyle Gibson.

Special teams should continue to be mostly productive for the Knights, especially with the reliable Matthew Wright kicking field goals. Killins has the speed to take kick returns to the house. The punting game may not be terribly impressive, however.

The Schedule

The schedule is heavily front-loaded. After an opener against FIU that UCF should win, the Knights’ next three games are against Memphis, Georgia Tech, and Maryland. UCF ought to be the underdog in each of those, though all are plausibly winnable. It would be great if the Knights could get through the initial stretch at 2-2 or better. It’s an excellent opportunity to get an all too rare win over a P5 program. But 1-3 is possible. That’s the kind of start that will dampen fan enthusiasm, but which shouldn’t be realistically viewed as a crisis unless the Knights are getting blown out.

The conference slate is manageable – though not easy – with the Knights also facing Navy and SMU as foes from the west division. If the Knights don’t reach seven wins, it would be a disappointment. In terms of conference standing, finishing second in the east is an attainable goal for the Knights. And the potential ceiling on this team is high – if things click in just a few key areas, UCF could wind up being a great team.