" * ": November 2017

Monday, November 13, 2017

#18 UCF Knights Play Sloppy, Still Whip Huskies 49-24

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/11/12/16640288/ucf-knights-central-florida-uconn-huskies-scott-frost-otis-anderson-david-pindell-game-recap-2017

UCF Knights fans are not used to having teams that can make loads of mistakes and still win by a dominant margin.

Well, that’s what we’ve got now. Despite sometimes sloppy play (especially in the third quarter), the ultimate outcome was never in doubt.

Early on, it looked like things would wind up even more lopsided than they did. The UConn Huskies’ second drive was a disaster. Tony Guerard fell on a dropped toss. Though initially ruled an incomplete pass by UConn QB David Pindell was reversed on review and ruled a fumble and Knights’ ball.

And then some of the mistakes were on display. The Knights immediately moved backwards thanks to a trio of successive penalties – an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty by Scott Frost on the reversed play, holding, and then a false start. Ultimately the Knights were flagged ten times for 84 yards. Though groan-inducing, this trio of penalties didn’t end up meaning much – a couple of plays later (including a nice 15 yard run by Tre’Quan Smith) and freshman WR Marlon Williams had his first career touchdown. That score – coupled with earlier touchdown runs by Otis Anderson and Adrian Killins Jr. – put the Knights up 21-3, still in the first quarter.

But the Huskies didn’t lie down. They stopped the Knights’ second drive on fourth down (UCF and UConn went a combined 0-5 on fourth down conversion attempts). And then added their first touchdown of the day when Pindell perfectly executed a RPO play and found a ludicrously wide open Mason Donaldson in the end zone.

Not that it mattered all that much. UCF answered with a drive capped off with a 41 yard touchdown pass from McKenzie Milton to Tre’Quan Smith. Smith simply had a tremendous day, totaling seven receptions for 120 yards. And in the fourth quarter, Smith’s blocking was clutch in enabling a sixty-five yard touchdown run by Anderson.

UConn came out of the half swinging with a lightning quick, 91 yard touchdown drive (UConn’s longest drive of the year). Pindell showed some nice moves on the drive (including on his nine yard run to get the touchdown) and threw a long pass to an uncovered Arkeel Newsome.

UCF looked to be in a great position to answer, but Otis Anderson was stripped while making a nifty run after a catch. And though the Knights forced a quick three and out, their ensuing drive was simply bad. A botched snap resulted in a loss of 14 yards. Then Killins was tackled for a loss. And then a sack of Milton ended the series.

The offense was ineffective throughout the third, leaving the Knights with only their second scoreless quarter of the year.

The Knights looked more like themselves in the fourth quarter and poured on 21 points. Anderson redeemed himself with the aforementioned 65 yard touchdown run. It was the longest run this year by any Knight not named Adrian Killins Jr. Milton ran for a touchdown. And when Noah Vedral entered the game at quarterback for the Knights, he threw a 35 yard touchdown pass to an incredibly wide open Cam Stewart.

The Knights defensive backups allowed a Huskies touchdown with 36 seconds left in the game.

At 9-0, the Knights best start in program history continues. And with nine in a row, UCF’s also tied for the longest winning streak in program history.

The Knights travel to Temple next week.

Kirby Hocutt and the College Football Playoff selection committee are intellectually lazy.

The UCF Knights remain ranked at #18 by the committee. Last week, there were four two loss teams ranked ahead of UCF. This week there are eight. Most egregiously, two loss Michigan State rose a whopping twelve spots in the rankings by handing Penn State its second loss.

As discussed over here by the mothership, UCF’s ranking is simply too low.

The message the committee is sending with these rankings: we don’t care about the margins by which teams beat their opponents and – for Power Five programs – we don’t care all that much about how bad your losses are, either.

Hocutt’s position is that UCF’s “strength of schedule is the challenge in positioning them higher at this point in time.” Well, what’s good for the Group of Five goose is not good for the Power Five gander. Compare the Knights to fellow unbeaten team Wisconsin, which is ranked #6:

With this backdrop, let’s delve into our weekly look at UCF’s strength of schedule.

FIU Panthers (6-2 Overall, 4-1 Conference USA)

Look – even UCF’s season opening cupcake is bowl eligible. It’s only the third time in program history that the Panthers have reached bowl eligibility (first time since 2011).

Not that the Panthers’ wins have been especially impressive, but their 14-7 win this week over UTSA might have been “the most miserable C-USA game of the season.”

Maryland Terrapins (4-5 Overall, 2-4 Big Ten)

It’s great that the Knights clobbered their only P5 opponent of the season. Unfortunately, it’s not one that is going to look great on the resume. With a narrow road loss to Rutgers in what was a back-and-forth game, the Terps are back to a losing record.

It would be a shock if Maryland got to six wins, and its likely that the Terps won’t win another game. Their last three are against Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State.

#22 Memphis Tigers (8-1 Overall, 5-1 AAC)

The only G5 team other than UCF to be ranked by the selection committee, the Tigers moved up a single spot after blowing out Tulsa 41-14. Memphis quarterback Riley Ferguson again was outstanding. His performance this year has been stellar, and it’s a credit to the Knights’ defense that they limited him so much in UCF’s win.

Memphis will likely win the AAC West, and beating an excellent Memphis team in the AAC Championship is one of the few potential resume boosts the Knights have left.

Cincinnati Bearcats (3-6 Overall, 1-4 AAC)

The Bearcats notched their first conference win of the year with their 17-16 victory over Tulane. It could have easily gone the other way. The Green Wave attempted a 36-yard field goal with less than a minute to play and missed wide left.

Cincinnati’s path to bowl eligibility is actually plausible. The Bearcats have games against Temple, ECU, and UConn remaining (all teams which, like the Bearcats, have losing records). Sure would be nice to have another bowl eligible team on the resume.

ECU Pirates (2-7 Overall, 1-4 AAC)

ECU never led and lost to Houston 52-27. They allowed the Cougars to put up 21 points in the first quarter, while scoring none of their own. The Pirates are irredeemably bad this year.

Navy Midshipmen (5-3 Overall, 3-3 AAC)

Navy suffered a surprising loss to Temple, which was well-prepared for the triple option and found improved offense with Frank Nutile at quarterback.

The way ahead is difficult for Navy. The Midshipmen have SMU, Notre Dame, Houston, and Army left on the schedule.

Austin Peay Governors (6-4 Overall, 5-1 Ohio Valley Conference)

Austin Peay has an outside shot at making the FCS playoffs. Their only losses are to three FBS programs (such losses are not taken into consideration when selecting teams for the FCS playoffs) and perennial FCS power Jacksonville State.

This week, the Governors beat Tennessee Tech. At 1-8, Tennessee Tech is the worst team in the Ohio Valley Conference.

SMU Mustangs (6-3 Overall, 3-2 AAC)

SMU gave UCF its toughest challenge of the year, but the Knights prevailed 31-24 (we had our Underdog Dynasty staff photographer at this game, and the photo gallery is over here).

The Mustangs capitalized on UCF miscues, including a McKenzie Milton pick six and an absurd number of missed tackles on the Mustang’s first offensive play (which yielded a catch-and-run for a long touchdown).

UCF was still the better team. And it’s good to see that the Knights can deal with adversity. Haven’t seen much of that so far this season.

UConn Huskies (3-6 Overall, 2-4 AAC)

UConn suffered a 37-20 loss against USF. The Huskies have one of the worst defenses in the country, and it showed against the Bulls.

Quarterback Bryant Shirreffs suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter and left the game. The Huskies will be without him for their game against the Knights this week.

Temple Owls (4-5 Overall, 2-3 AAC)

Temple is certainly a more dangerous team with Nutile at QB (and to think that earlier in the season I thought they had found a steady hand in Logan Marchi).

The Owls are another team that could plausibly get bowl eligible. Aside from their game against the Knights in two weeks, Temple plays 2-8 Tulsa and Cincinnati.

USF Bulls (8-1 Overall, 5-1 AAC)

The Bulls are again not ranked by the committee. That’s just plain wrong, but consistent with the lack of value the committee attaches to AAC teams.

Quarterback Quinton Flowers had an epic performance with 516 total yards against UConn – a USF record. The Bulls offensive playcalling was much improved. They’re a dangerous team, and one the Knights will have to respect, even if the committee doesn’t.

Previous ‘Know Your Foes’: Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, (we missed Week 8, sorry), Week 9.

UCF Hits a School Record 8-0 With Win Over SMU

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/11/5/16608216/ucf-knights-smu-mustangs-ponies-central-florida-2017-recap-mckenzie-milton-courtland-sutton-frost

UCF played sloppy throughout and still beat a team that had its best start in thirty years.

A trio of disasters hampered the Knights in the early going. A failed fourth and short. Surrendering an enormous 86 yard yard catch and run touchdown to SMU wide receiver James Proche. And a bad McKenzie Milton pick, where he threw behind Tre’Quan Smith.

The mistakes did not end there. Milton chucked a pick six in the first half (he could have chucked another with 7:52 in the fourth quarter, but it was dropped). And in the third quarter, TE Jordan Akins had a fumble in the end zone.

But that was all ultimately fine. The Knights got some tremendously explosive plays out of the periodically inconsistent offense. Adrian Killins, Jr. had two highlight touchdown runs, one for thirty-four yards in the second quarter and one for sixty-four yards in third. Killins is college football’s fastest player and supplies more evidence in that regard every week or so.

Of course, we know that Twitter star @TJL_SUdad has pioneered “cheese and bread” as the Killins long touchdown run catch phrase. But this is a game that makes me believe that 1990s hyperviolent comic book duo Milk and Cheese might the more appropriate comparison.

(If I show you the meaningless comic book panel, I also have to show you the highlight, right? Right.)

And it’s not like it was all bad for Milton. Far from it. Despite the turnovers and relative lack of accuracy, he rang up 412 passing yards, the most since Blake Bortles’s performance against Temple in 2013 (you’ll remember that game as The Catch. right? RIGHT?!).

The UCF defense was . . . largely forgettable. The Knights suffered from some of the tackling problems on display against Cincinnati, Austin Peay, and (to a lesser extent) against ECU. But throughout the game they made some big stops on third down. And they weren’t without their own highlights. UCF Safety Kyle Gibson had a crucial recovery of a fumble by a driving SMU in the end zone for a touchback.

Ultimately, the play of the game came with a bit over five minutes left in the fourth quarter. SMU wide receiver Trey Quinn dropped what should have been a certain fourth down catch on the UCF side of the field (on paper, Quinn is the closest to a sure thing one might expect - he’s the AAC’s leading receiver). It was immediately followed by a Killins run that ripped into SMU territory.

But the Mustangs still had a chance. With about three minutes left in the fourth, the Mustangs sacked Milton and knocked the Knights out of field goal range. Down seven, the Ponies had the ball deep on their side of the field with 2:55 seconds left.

. . . The drive ended with a turnover on downs.

But look, the Mustangs continue to look like a profoundly dangerous team. SMU quarterback Ben Hicks was largely on point (yes, he seemed to panic at times, but still). He ended up going 27/51 for 283 yards, a touchdown, and 54 yards rushing. He did not turn the ball over. And his receivers often made clutch catches. James Proche ended up with 7 receptions for 173 yards (including the ridiculous early touchdown catch). Trey Quinn (despite the huge drop) caught eleven passes, while Courtland Sutton held his own against UCF’s stellar CB Mike Hughes and caught five pases for 46 yards. They were helped by the Mustang’s rushing attack - Xavier Jones ran 19 times for 84 yards and a touchdown, with Braeden West chipping in for 55 yards as well.

UCF now has the largest active streak of scoring thirty or more points per game. Hey, I know a bitter rival who wishes they owned that streak.

The Mustangs move on to a key divisional game against Navy. The Knights will have the UConn Huskies at home.

And hey! Ashley Frost didn’t give birth during the game. Thank goodness. Every dad deserves to be there for the birth of his child (mom has no choice but to be there. Sorry, mothers. I’ve seen it go down, and you are the heroes).

Know Your Foes: UCF’s Opponents After Week Nine

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/11/1/16595436/ucf-knights-university-of-central-florida-sos-strength-of-schedule-scott-frost-mckenzie-milton

With the first College Football Playoff Rankings out, strength of schedule now “officially” matters. The #18 UCF Knights have beaten opponents with a combined record of 30-25 (a .545 winning percentage). UCF’s average margin of victory is 31 points. UCF has the best scoring offense in the country (51 points per game) and, of the five unbeaten teams in the FBS, only the Knights have won each game by double digits.

And yet the undefeated Knights are ranked after four two-loss teams: Auburn (6-2), Iowa State (6-2), Mississippi State (6-2), and USC (7-2).

Its clear that tearing through AAC foes – even in UCF’s rapacious manner -- isn’t worth all that much in the eyes of the committee. And the Knights were unfortunately deprived of the opportunity to play a second Power Five program this year when Hurricane Irma prompted the cancellation of the Georgia Tech game.

If UCF wins out, then the Knights will play in a New Year’s Six Bowl. It would be extremely difficult, however, for UCF to be ranked high enough to make the playoffs. Even if UCF continues blowing out opponents, it would take absolute carnage above them for the Knights to move up. Absolute. Carnage.

But please. Root for carnage.

And winning out.

The Knights’ past and future opponents, in schedule order:

FIU Panthers (5-2 Overall, 3-1 Conference USA)

The Panthers continue to have one of their best seasons to date and are a serious contender to win the C-USA East Division. On Saturday, FIU had its best offensive game of the year and hung 41 points on Marshall on the way to an 11 point win. They’re quite good for a C-USA team.

Maryland Terrapins (4-4 Overall, 2-3 Big Ten)

Maryland was down 14-0 against Indiana before surging back to win 42-39.

It sure would be nice if UCF’s only Power 5 victim this year could get to bowl eligibility and at least a .500 record. Getting to five wins is very possible with a game against Rutgers this weekend, but to hit six, the Terps would need to upset one of Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State. Not as easy task for this Maryland team.

#23 Memphis Tigers (7-1 Overall, 4-1 AAC)

Memphis jumped to an early lead over Tulane and did not look back. The Tigers cruised to a 56-26 win.

There’s a very serious possibility of a UCF-Memphis match-up in the AAC Championship game. The Tigers have a single challenge remaining – SMU – and two far easier opponents (Tulsa and ECU).

UCF and Memphis are the only Group of Five teams ranked in the initial College Football Playoff rankings.

Cincinnati Bearcats (2-6 Overall, 0-4 AAC)

The Bearcats were on a bye. Perhaps mercifully, given that they’ve yet to win a single conference game.

ECU Pirates (2-6 Overall, 1-3 AAC)

Also had a bye.

Navy Midshipmen (5-2 Overall, 3-2 AAC)

And yes, Navy had a bye.

Not a ton of AAC games this past week.

The Midshipmen resume play tomorrow against Temple.

Austin Peay Governors (5-4 Overall, 4-1 Ohio Valley Conference)

Many UCF fans seemed not to enjoy crushing Austin Peay as much as they should have. The Knights hung a UCF record 73 points on the Governors and won by 40 this week. It was also the most points scored by any AAC team against any opponent this year.

The Knights’ defensive lapses – including missed tackles and assignments – can certainly be fairly criticized. And no AAC program wants to allow an FCS team to score 33 points. But remember that many of those came in fluky ways. The Governors caught a tipped pass for a touchdown. And caught a touchdown pass that UCF freshman DB Antwan Collier bobbled instead of intercepting. The Governors also had a lineman fall on one of their fumbles for a touchdown.

The Governors may be “only” an FCS team, but they’re a good FCS team. Their other losses are against Miami (OH) and Cincinnati, and FCS powerhouse Jacksonville State.

SMU Mustangs (6-2 Overall, 3-1 AAC)

SMU played a tighter than expected game against lowly Tulsa. The Mustangs were down 28-34 before scoring ten points in the fourth quarter to win. It’s the second week in a row that the Mustangs have cut it close – on October 21, they needed overtime to eke out a 31-28 over Cincinnati.

Of course, SMU’s offense is dangerous (though the defense is . . . not). Other than the War on I-4, this is the most challenging hurdle remaining for the Knights.

UConn Huskies (3-5 Overall, 2-3 AAC)

UConn played the SEC’s Missouri Tigers and got crushed by a score of 52-12. UConn did manage to score first with a safety when a snap went over the head of Missouri’s punter and through the end zone. But the Tigers responded with three touchdowns in the first quarter, swiftly putting the game out of reach.

Very, very, little went right for the Huskies in this one.

Temple Owls (3-5 Overall, 1-3 AAC)

On a bye week.

Told you there weren’t a ton of AAC games this week.

USF Bulls (7-1 Overall, 4-1 AAC)

The dreams of two undefeated teams playing in a clash of the titans on Black Friday is now gone.

On Saturday, USF went up against their first good opponent of the year, the Houston Cougars. And the Bulls lost 28-24. If you want to traumatize your Bulls friends this week, ask them about 4th and 24.

Through Week Nine, USF has still only beaten one team without a losing record, and that’s FCS Stony Brook.

Our game on Black Friday remains risky and – with the Bulls unlikely to lose again before then – a threat to winning the division. Despite not playing up top their potential, the Bulls are a talented team. They’re also hampered by bad playcalling on offense – a fact that was obvious against Houston.

Speaking of bad offense, the Bulls snapped their record 24 game streak of scoring 30 or more points. UCF now holds the longest active streak, with seven.

Previous ‘Know Your Foes’: Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7.

UCF Overcomes Navy for Best Start in Program History

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/21/16515014/ucf-knights-university-of-central-florida-navy-midshipmen-recap-abey-otis-anderson-adrian-killins-jr

The #20 UCF Knights (6-0, 4-0 American Athletic Conference) endured their first tough - and sloppy - game of the season but prevailed 31-21 over the Navy Midshipmen (5-2, 3-2). The victory is hugely significant for the Knights, who now have matched their win total from last year. And at 6-0, this is the best ever start for UCF football. The Knights’ victory also wrecked a streak for Navy, which had won 17 regular season home games in a row.

Though the Knights never trailed, the game was tight throughout.

In the first half, UCF blew numerous opportunities. The Knights had a promising drive blunted by penalties. Then a drive stopped on a failed attempt to convert fourth and one in the red zone. And later, when UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton appeared to tweak his hamstring, Noah Vedral came on briefly; he promptly botched a snap to scuttle good field position. Matthew Wright also missed a 45-yard field goal attempt to close out the half.

The Knights suffered mistakes in the second half as well. The Knights surrendered several long passes to the Midshipmen, including a 75 yard touchdown pass by Zach Abey to Malcom Perry. And McKenzie Milton threw an interception (only his third of the year) in the fourth quarter.

Though far from its usual sharp performance, the UCF offense still accumulated 483 yards. This was a game in which UCF’s speedy young players (and the offensive line, which made huge holes for them) shined. Sophomore Adrian Killins Jr. rushed for 122 yards (his new career high) and two touchdowns. One of those touchdowns was a 79 yard run to immediately answer a Navy TD that had knotted the game at 14-14 early in the second half. Freshman Otis Anderson also had a great game. With a few minutes left in the game and UCF only up three, Anderson had a clutch catch and run for a key first down. Two plays later, he put the Knights up 31-21:

Anderson also added a pair of catches for 47 yards. Nominally a wide receiver, Anderson continues to have success whether used in that role or as a running back.

Much credit for this win belongs to the Knights defense. Linebacker Pat Jasinski played fiercely throughout, ending with a career high fourteen total tackles. Redshirt Freshman cornerback Brandon Moore – usually the weakest link in the Knights’ secondary – had a tremendous game. He tipped a ball that safety Kyle Gibson then intercepted. Later, with the Midshipmen driving, Moore nailed Darryl Bonner on the pitch, forcing and recovering a fumble. Moore also ended Navy’s last drive by picking off a Garret Lewis pass (Lewis replaced Abey at quarterback after a hard hit dazed Abey in the third quarter).

The ten point win is UCF’s smallest margin of victory so far this year (UCF’s previous “low” was a 27 point win over Memphis). But this should not alarm Knights fans in the least. Instead, today’s result demonstrates that UCF can beat quality opponent even when the Knights aren’t playing their best game. Coupled with their win over Memphis several weeks ago, UCF has now beaten the two best teams in the AAC West.

UCF gets a bit of a breather, with FCS program Austin Peay coming to Orlando next Saturday. The Knights will also get a boost from the return of wide receiver Tristan Payton and cornerback Nevelle Clarke, who have now finished serving a six game suspension for failed drug tests.

#20 UCF vs Navy: Preview and Prediction

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/19/16485866/ucf-knights-vs-navy-preview-and-prediction-aac-scott-frost-orlando-preview-kickoff-tv-betting