No. 25 UCF Knights vs University of Cincinnati Bearcats: Preview, Start Time, TV, Betting Line, Prediction
Start Time: 8 PM ET, Saturday, October 7.
TV: ESPNU
Radio: FM 96.9/AM 740 The Game
Live stats: http://gobearcats.com
Location: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Records: Of course, UCF is 3-0, 1-0 AAC. And if you’ve been reading our weekly Know Your Foes post, you’re also aware Cincinnati is 2-3, 0-1 AAC, with a loss to Marshall last week. Yikes.
The Series: UCF has a 2-1 edge. Last
year, the Knights got to bowl eligibility with a 24-3 win. The Knights
defense did some gloriously nasty things.
Betting Line: UCF opened as a 13.5 point favorite. Then the line moved to -17.
UCF Outlook:
Feels good to see that ranking in the headline.
Been too long not to enjoy it.
You don’t need me to tell you again that the Knights have
cruised through the season so far, rolling over a trio of teams that
are undefeated but-for their games against UCF. And while FIU isn’t very good (though good enough to be leading their division), wins over Maryland and Memphis are
quality wins for the Knights. A battle-tested team (despite not being
threatened in the second half all year), the Knights should easily hit
4-0 for the first time since 1988 (the Division II era!).
The McKenzie Milton-led offense has been rolling. The
defense has been excellent. The defensive line is mauling people. The
linebackers continue to be great. Mike Hughes has been a revelation at corner, and the secondary is far more secure than it looked at the start of the season.
I expect the defense to be the reason the Knights put the
Bearcats away early. UCF leads the country in turnover margin with an
average of +2.33 per game. Cincinnati is tied for 77th in the
country (with a bunch of other teams at) at -1. Likewise, the UCF
defense has been brutal to opposing teams on third down. Opponents are a
mere 8 of 37 on third down. The Bearcats rank a mere 99th in third down conversions; they convert only a bit more than a third of the time.
Cincinnati Outlook:
The Bearcats have had a rough start under first year head
coach Luke Fickell. Cincinnati started the season beating Austin Peay
by a mere 12 points. Then lost to Michigan by 22 after keeping it close
for about three quarters. Then needed end-of-game heroics to beat Miami
(OH). And then lost to Navy. And then lost to Marshall. By 17.
Cincinnati is an uneven team with a lot of young players. The Bearcats have the second worse offense in the American
Athletic Conference. Quarterback Hayden Moore is inconsistent – he’s
been good at times and struggled seriously at others. Nor can Cincinnati
run consistently. The Bearcats are one of the worst teams in the
conference in yards per carry with 3.5. If Cincinnati winds up down
early (as I think they will), they’re not going to have a lot of ways to
get back in the game.
Defensively, Cincinnati is vulnerable on the ground.
Neither are they great at defending the pass, but they’ve had less
occasion to be tested through the air.
Prediction: Cincinnati is not nearly as
good as UCF. And the Knights haven’t given me any reason to doubt their
seriousness or intensity against seemingly overmatched opponents.
I’ve also been underestimating our Knights all year. Didn’t predict quite a big enough blowout against FIU. Predicted a Maryland win. and I predicted only a narrow win against Memphis.
So: no more. UCF by 24. At least.
Go Knights.
For more on this game, check out our “Five Questions” with Bearcats blog Down the Drive. Our reciprocal answers to their questions are over here.
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