Wednesday, November 20, 2019

“We Shouldn’t Rest on This Success” -- a Discussion with Dr. Nathan Kalman-Lamb on the NCAA’s Name, Image, and Likeness Issue

https://www.blackandgoldbanneret.com/knight-insight/2019/11/19/20971119/ncaa-name-image-likeness-nil-florida-bill-nathan-kalman-lamb-cte-chronic-traumatic-encephalopathy

On why the NCAA should love Name, Image, and Likeness bills, how the risk of CTE should shape the athlete compensation discussion, and the ethics of football fandom.

College sports fans and politicians have increasingly focused on the rights of college athletes, especially their ability them to profit from their own name, image, and likeness. California blazed a trail with the Fair Pay to Play Act, and many states have followed suit, including Florida (Black & Gold Banneret previously talked with Florida State Representative Chip LaMarca regarding his NIL bill – you can find that podcast here).
As part of our continuing discussion on NIL issues, we interviewed Dr. Nathan Kalman-Lamb, one of the leading academics on labor issues and exploitation in sports. Dr. Kalman-Lamb is a Lecturing Fellow at Duke University. In addition to scholarly journals, Dr. Kalman-Lamb’s writing appears in outlets like the Los Angeles Review of Books and The Chronicle of Higher Education. He is the author of Game Misconduct: Injury, Fandom, and the Business of Sports.

There’s a trend towards recognition — by the public and by state governments like California and Florida — that college athletes deserve more than the NCAA allows. We’re seeing that addressed by a wave of bills allowing college athletes to profit from their name, image, and likeness. Is that the right fix?
If we want to think in an ethical way about the question of compensation in college sport, we need to stop using the status quo as a measuring stick. From the standpoint of what the NCAA and member institutions currently offer players, yes, NIL rights are a meaningful improvement. But, that, to me, is something of a red herring. Because, if we want to take seriously the question of what players deserve, we need to think about high revenue college sport in terms of what it actually is: commodity spectacle produced through the labor of athletes. If we think of college sport in those terms, it frames this discussion a little differently--it raises the question of why we would ever consider it justifiable in the first place for workers to be barred from the fruits of their labor so that others can reap the benefits.
If we think of compensation issues in college sport in the terms I have just laid out, NIL rights don’t look like the big win for campus athletic workers they have been made out to be. In fact, as I have argued elsewhere, the big winner with NIL rights might be the NCAA itself. After all, we are talking about promotional money that will come from outside the universities -- money the athletes will need to perform additional promotional labor to receive. And, most importantly, this means that we will not be talking about actual compensation by the NCAA and universities for the labor athletes perform in order to produce the spectacle fans love. That form of compensation would put a major dent in the revenue of universities, but NIL is actually a buffer against that feared outcome, I think, because it will silence cries of exploitation and thereby cleanse the guilty consciences of fans.
There is one final part of this equation I also want to address, and that is the fact that NIL focuses our attention on compensation as if that is the full measure of exploitation in college sport. The fact that college athletes provide labor--produce a commodity--yet are treated like they aren’t workers is not just a problem from the standpoint of compensation. It also means that college athletes don’t have protections for their working conditions -- occupational health and safety provisions. Likewise, it means they don’t have union rights that would allow them to defend themselves from abusive coaches and inhumane training regimes (not to mention negotiate the sort of revenue share enjoyed by their professional peers).
So, my short answer is this: NIL is the wrong fix for athletes, because it ensures that they will continue to be exploited for their labor. But, for that very reason, it is a perfect fix for the NCAA.
So is this an argument against incrementalism -- because NIL gives the NCAA a degree of cover which may be counterproductive long-term? Or you’d agree better NIL than nothing, as long as we don’t deceive ourselves into thinking it’s sufficient?
I think, more than anything, I mean this as a reminder to the folks who care about the rights of NCAA athletic workers that we shouldn’t rest on this success. It’s easy to get caught up in the celebration of potential changes that have been decades in the making, but if we do, we allow the long con that is NCAA amateurism to persist under a new guise. We owe the athletes better than that.
What do you make of the NCAA’s announcement last month that it would start a process to permit college athletes “the opportunity to benefit from the use of their name, image and likeness in a manner consistent with the collegiate model?” Isn’t the phrase “consistent with the college model” carrying an awful lot of weight here?
Right, you hit the nail on the head. The salient phrases of that passage are “collegiate model” and “benefit.” In order to understand why, it’s useful to compare the language in the NCAA’s announcement to the language of the California Fair Pay to Play Act. The California legislation explicitly prohibits institutions of higher education in the state other than community colleges from “preventing a student participating in intercollegiate athletics from earning compensation as a result of the use of the student’s name, image, or likeness.” Notice the explicit use of “compensation” versus the ambiguous term “benefit.” Note also the contrast between the reference to the “collegiate model” -- aka ‘amateurism’ -- and the direct repudiation of amateurism in a piece of legislation that outright rejects the antiquated and essentially elitist principle by prohibiting universities from imposing it.
Let’s look at a few of the other passages in the guidelines the NCAA laid out for how the three divisions are supposed to create opportunities around NIL.
The NCAA’s Board of Governors requires that any new “benefits” associated with NIL must “assure student-athletes are treated similarly to non-athlete students unless a compelling reason exists to differentiate.” One might contend that a “compelling reason... to differentiate” is the fact that so-called “student-athletes” are providing the labor that makes a multi-billion dollar industry possible. Then there is this: since when are college athletes actually treated like “non-athlete students” by the NCAA itself? In fact, we know that the education campus athletic workers receive is not the same as the education of their peers. College athletes face academic clustering -- the practice of funneling them into classes perceived to be easier (i.e. non-STEM classes) so that course work will not interfere with athletic obligations and because coaches actually have clauses built into their contracts that provide them with bonuses if players achieve requisite GPAs. Moreover, players must build their academic schedule around team responsibilities -- no mean feat -- and are not permitted to avail themselves of the perks of an undergraduate degree such as study abroad and other exciting summer programs because, you guessed it, they need to be on campus working playing for their teams. And none of this is to mention the fact that actually showing up in class energized and alert when you are working forty-plus hours for a football team is probably not the most realistic of expectations.
Finally, recall my earlier argument that the NCAA’s greatest fear is that players will be recognized as workers eligible for union rights, given the potential for that to cut into the industry’s bottom line and re-direct revenue into the pockets of the people who actually generate it. The NCAA heads that issue off at the pass here, requiring that any NIL liberalization “make clear that compensation for athletics performance or participation is impermissible” and “reaffirm that student-athletes are students first and not employees of the university.” The bottom line is that the bottom line must be protected at all costs.
Politicians and other proponents of NIL bills have sometimes characterized these efforts as getting college athletes access to the “free market.” Is that the appropriate way to think about these issues?
My take on this may be different than other proponents of college athlete compensation. The argument of most -- the Jay Bilas position, if you will -- is that college athletes should have the same rights as any other actors in U.S. free market capitalism. Amateurism rules prohibit compensation for labor or likeness and thus operate as an unjust constraint on the economic freedom of this specific group of American workers. That’s a perfectly logical position and a consistent application of neoclassical economic thought, if you will forgive me the academic jargon.
The problem for me with that position is not that it is incorrect about the question of economic rights, but rather that the singular focus on the worker as economic actor does not account for other critical dimensions of the laborer’s experience as laborer. My concern is with the broader question of working conditions. How can we protect athletes from the physical, psychological, and emotional harm that seem to be endemic to capitalist high-performance sport? Compensation won’t cover the cost of the trauma associated with life-changing and debilitating injury or the heartbreak of devoting one’s life to the dream of an athletic career that doesn’t end with going pro. However, union rights would at least allow athletes some measure of opportunity to protect their interests and well-being, and to get the most out of the college athletic experience in a holistic and self-determined sense.
How do the physical risks that athletes face influence the way we should think about these issues, and what would you say to the perspective that the physical risks are part of the game?
I’m thrilled you’re asking me this question, because for me this is the most important part of the conversation about exploitation in college sports. I completely reject the premise that physical risks are ‘part of the game,’ or, to be more precise, that they should be. High-performance sport is not a natural dimension of human experience, it is a construct, and a fairly youthful one at that. The more we learn about the harm to the body associated with elite sport, the more clear it becomes that we are asking too much of our athletes.
While I feel this argument holds for the vast majority of college sports, I cannot help but focus on football because of what we now know about the long-term harm inflicted by head injury. Boston University researchers found in 2017 that 91% of deceased former college football players’ brains had evidence of chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE), a degenerative neurological condition. Moreover, since 2014, there have been eleven heat stroke deaths in college football from over-training. The harm associated with football is both extreme, and, I would argue, quite possibly inevitable.
Can you elaborate on the emerging science surrounding CTE risk and the BU study specifically? Isn’t there selection bias resulting from the fact that CTE can only be detected following autopsy? What player would consent to have their brain studied after death, if not someone who had some reason to be concerned about CTE or other head injury?
My expertise as a researcher is not in the STEM fields, let alone the neurological sciences, so I don’t want to get to deep into the weeds on this. Clearly, one of the challenges for the researchers at BU is access to brains for their study. This means that their research actually becomes more persuasive every year, as their sample size and range of brain samples increases. And, by the way, there are football players without symptoms of CTE donating their brains because at this point all players have reason to be worried about what the game is doing to their brains and those of their friends and colleagues. In fact, just recently, those same researchers have revealed, based on a sample that now includes a control group of non-CTE football players’ brains, that the chances of contracting CTE double with every 2.6 years of participation in football.
So, if the question is do I think 91% of college football players will have CTE, the answer is probably not. But, I think the more relevant question is whether football, particularly prolonged participation in football, leads to various forms of harm to the brain, including CTE. I think we have very compelling evidence that the answer to that question is yes.
Now, there’s another aspect to this equation we haven’t discussed yet, which is that most people respond to this argument about harm and football by saying that athletes know what they signed up for. In other words, they have consented to participate and they have willingly taken on the above risks. That, too, is a proposition I reject. Consent is an easy concept in a vacuum. I either want something or I do not. That simplicity is complicated when we start to consider the structural context that frames the choices we make. What are the conditions that produce the options in front of me? I would argue that capitalism, structural racism, and patriarchy shape our capacity to consent. If society systematically denies me access to opportunities other than sport, am I really consenting to sacrifice my body at the altar of the NCAA when I accept a scholarship, or is that a choice informed by constraint, even coercion? That would be my contention.
Indeed, the sheer inaccessibility of higher education in the United States is itself a structural constraint on the decisions of athletes to participate in NCAA sport. This in turn means that the fact that we are sacrificing disproportionately Black athletes to the various forms of harm inflicted by the gridiron -- and then refusing to compensate them in a meaningful way for that sacrifice -- is an unconscionable systemic injustice that implicates so many of us, from the folks who watch, cheer, and extract meaning -- fans -- to faculty empowered to nurture these very same students. We are not the ones who set this system in motion, but we share a responsibility to campus athletic workers to create the conditions for them to have the most enriching and least harmful college experience possible.
Right now, we are all catastrophically failing in that endeavor.
What should fans do to be more ethical “consumers” of sports? Or do you even agree that it’s possible to be an ethical consumer of more dangerous sports like football or hockey?
Let me start by saying I understand why fans love sports, because I love sports. I came to my research on sport from the position of fan far more than participant. However, I also think that as fans, we need to put our own investments to the side and interrogate the extent to which the spectacle we love is causing harm, and, more than that, the extent to which our fandom is actually fueling that harm. Because, like it or not, the political economy--the business--of sport, including high revenue college sport, is predicated on the spectatorial market. Without fans, there is no money to be made. It is in this sense that fans are complicit in the harm caused by sports like football and hockey.
This is a long way of saying that, short of profound and sweeping rule changes that strip away the violence, I don’t think it is possible to be an ethical consumer of collision sports. It brings me no pleasure to say it, but I don’t know how we can persist in a pastime that we know systematically requires the sacrifice of children, teenagers, and adults for any reason, whether it is the pleasure experienced by the fan, or, worse, the cash coveted by the governing institutions of professionalized sport. Something needs to change, and much like with the NCAA itself, that change isn’t coming from the top.

Podcast with Rep Chip LaMarca and Darren Heitner

https://www.blackandgoldbanneret.com/podcast/2019/10/10/20908023/podcast-181-ucf-knights-bye-week-awards-florida-name-likeness-bill-chip-lamarca-darren-heitner-ncaa

Monday, November 13, 2017

#18 UCF Knights Play Sloppy, Still Whip Huskies 49-24

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/11/12/16640288/ucf-knights-central-florida-uconn-huskies-scott-frost-otis-anderson-david-pindell-game-recap-2017

UCF Knights fans are not used to having teams that can make loads of mistakes and still win by a dominant margin.
Well, that’s what we’ve got now. Despite sometimes sloppy play (especially in the third quarter), the ultimate outcome was never in doubt.
Early on, it looked like things would wind up even more lopsided than they did. The UConn Huskies’ second drive was a disaster. Tony Guerard fell on a dropped toss. Though initially ruled an incomplete pass by UConn QB David Pindell was reversed on review and ruled a fumble and Knights’ ball.
And then some of the mistakes were on display. The Knights immediately moved backwards thanks to a trio of successive penalties – an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty by Scott Frost on the reversed play, holding, and then a false start. Ultimately the Knights were flagged ten times for 84 yards. Though groan-inducing, this trio of penalties didn’t end up meaning much – a couple of plays later (including a nice 15 yard run by Tre’Quan Smith) and freshman WR Marlon Williams had his first career touchdown. That score – coupled with earlier touchdown runs by Otis Anderson and Adrian Killins Jr. – put the Knights up 21-3, still in the first quarter.
But the Huskies didn’t lie down. They stopped the Knights’ second drive on fourth down (UCF and UConn went a combined 0-5 on fourth down conversion attempts). And then added their first touchdown of the day when Pindell perfectly executed a RPO play and found a ludicrously wide open Mason Donaldson in the end zone.
Not that it mattered all that much. UCF answered with a drive capped off with a 41 yard touchdown pass from McKenzie Milton to Tre’Quan Smith. Smith simply had a tremendous day, totaling seven receptions for 120 yards. And in the fourth quarter, Smith’s blocking was clutch in enabling a sixty-five yard touchdown run by Anderson.
UConn came out of the half swinging with a lightning quick, 91 yard touchdown drive (UConn’s longest drive of the year). Pindell showed some nice moves on the drive (including on his nine yard run to get the touchdown) and threw a long pass to an uncovered Arkeel Newsome.
UCF looked to be in a great position to answer, but Otis Anderson was stripped while making a nifty run after a catch. And though the Knights forced a quick three and out, their ensuing drive was simply bad. A botched snap resulted in a loss of 14 yards. Then Killins was tackled for a loss. And then a sack of Milton ended the series.
The offense was ineffective throughout the third, leaving the Knights with only their second scoreless quarter of the year.
The Knights looked more like themselves in the fourth quarter and poured on 21 points. Anderson redeemed himself with the aforementioned 65 yard touchdown run. It was the longest run this year by any Knight not named Adrian Killins Jr. Milton ran for a touchdown. And when Noah Vedral entered the game at quarterback for the Knights, he threw a 35 yard touchdown pass to an incredibly wide open Cam Stewart.
The Knights defensive backups allowed a Huskies touchdown with 36 seconds left in the game.
At 9-0, the Knights best start in program history continues. And with nine in a row, UCF’s also tied for the longest winning streak in program history.
The Knights travel to Temple next week.

13 UConn Rivalries Better than UCF

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/11/10/16621942/twelve-uconn-rivalries-better-than-ucf-civil-conflict-diaco

#18 UCF Knights vs UConn Huskies: Preview and Prediction

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/11/10/16629246/ucf-vs-uconn-preview-and-prediction-aac-scott-frost-orlando-preview-kickoff-tv-betting-knights

Know Your Foes: UCF’s Opponents After Week Ten

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/11/8/16625212/ucf-knights-university-of-central-florida-strength-of-schedule-sos-cfp-rankings-selection-committee

Kirby Hocutt and the College Football Playoff selection committee are intellectually lazy.
The UCF Knights remain ranked at #18 by the committee. Last week, there were four two loss teams ranked ahead of UCF. This week there are eight. Most egregiously, two loss Michigan State rose a whopping twelve spots in the rankings by handing Penn State its second loss.
As discussed over here by the mothership, UCF’s ranking is simply too low.
The message the committee is sending with these rankings: we don’t care about the margins by which teams beat their opponents and – for Power Five programs – we don’t care all that much about how bad your losses are, either.
Hocutt’s position is that UCF’s “strength of schedule is the challenge in positioning them higher at this point in time.” Well, what’s good for the Group of Five goose is not good for the Power Five gander. Compare the Knights to fellow unbeaten team Wisconsin, which is ranked #6:
With this backdrop, let’s delve into our weekly look at UCF’s strength of schedule.
FIU Panthers (6-2 Overall, 4-1 Conference USA)
Look – even UCF’s season opening cupcake is bowl eligible. It’s only the third time in program history that the Panthers have reached bowl eligibility (first time since 2011).
Not that the Panthers’ wins have been especially impressive, but their 14-7 win this week over UTSA might have been “the most miserable C-USA game of the season.”
Maryland Terrapins (4-5 Overall, 2-4 Big Ten)
It’s great that the Knights clobbered their only P5 opponent of the season. Unfortunately, it’s not one that is going to look great on the resume. With a narrow road loss to Rutgers in what was a back-and-forth game, the Terps are back to a losing record.
It would be a shock if Maryland got to six wins, and its likely that the Terps won’t win another game. Their last three are against Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State.
#22 Memphis Tigers (8-1 Overall, 5-1 AAC)
The only G5 team other than UCF to be ranked by the selection committee, the Tigers moved up a single spot after blowing out Tulsa 41-14. Memphis quarterback Riley Ferguson again was outstanding. His performance this year has been stellar, and it’s a credit to the Knights’ defense that they limited him so much in UCF’s win.
Memphis will likely win the AAC West, and beating an excellent Memphis team in the AAC Championship is one of the few potential resume boosts the Knights have left.
Cincinnati Bearcats (3-6 Overall, 1-4 AAC)
The Bearcats notched their first conference win of the year with their 17-16 victory over Tulane. It could have easily gone the other way. The Green Wave attempted a 36-yard field goal with less than a minute to play and missed wide left.
Cincinnati’s path to bowl eligibility is actually plausible. The Bearcats have games against Temple, ECU, and UConn remaining (all teams which, like the Bearcats, have losing records). Sure would be nice to have another bowl eligible team on the resume.
ECU Pirates (2-7 Overall, 1-4 AAC)
ECU never led and lost to Houston 52-27. They allowed the Cougars to put up 21 points in the first quarter, while scoring none of their own. The Pirates are irredeemably bad this year.
Navy Midshipmen (5-3 Overall, 3-3 AAC)
Navy suffered a surprising loss to Temple, which was well-prepared for the triple option and found improved offense with Frank Nutile at quarterback.
The way ahead is difficult for Navy. The Midshipmen have SMU, Notre Dame, Houston, and Army left on the schedule.
Austin Peay Governors (6-4 Overall, 5-1 Ohio Valley Conference)
Austin Peay has an outside shot at making the FCS playoffs. Their only losses are to three FBS programs (such losses are not taken into consideration when selecting teams for the FCS playoffs) and perennial FCS power Jacksonville State.
This week, the Governors beat Tennessee Tech. At 1-8, Tennessee Tech is the worst team in the Ohio Valley Conference.
SMU Mustangs (6-3 Overall, 3-2 AAC)
SMU gave UCF its toughest challenge of the year, but the Knights prevailed 31-24 (we had our Underdog Dynasty staff photographer at this game, and the photo gallery is over here).
The Mustangs capitalized on UCF miscues, including a McKenzie Milton pick six and an absurd number of missed tackles on the Mustang’s first offensive play (which yielded a catch-and-run for a long touchdown).
UCF was still the better team. And it’s good to see that the Knights can deal with adversity. Haven’t seen much of that so far this season.
UConn Huskies (3-6 Overall, 2-4 AAC)
UConn suffered a 37-20 loss against USF. The Huskies have one of the worst defenses in the country, and it showed against the Bulls.
Quarterback Bryant Shirreffs suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter and left the game. The Huskies will be without him for their game against the Knights this week.
Temple Owls (4-5 Overall, 2-3 AAC)
Temple is certainly a more dangerous team with Nutile at QB (and to think that earlier in the season I thought they had found a steady hand in Logan Marchi).
The Owls are another team that could plausibly get bowl eligible. Aside from their game against the Knights in two weeks, Temple plays 2-8 Tulsa and Cincinnati.
USF Bulls (8-1 Overall, 5-1 AAC)
The Bulls are again not ranked by the committee. That’s just plain wrong, but consistent with the lack of value the committee attaches to AAC teams.
Quarterback Quinton Flowers had an epic performance with 516 total yards against UConn – a USF record. The Bulls offensive playcalling was much improved. They’re a dangerous team, and one the Knights will have to respect, even if the committee doesn’t.
Previous ‘Know Your Foes’: Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, (we missed Week 8, sorry), Week 9.

UCF Hits a School Record 8-0 With Win Over SMU

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/11/5/16608216/ucf-knights-smu-mustangs-ponies-central-florida-2017-recap-mckenzie-milton-courtland-sutton-frost

UCF played sloppy throughout and still beat a team that had its best start in thirty years.
A trio of disasters hampered the Knights in the early going. A failed fourth and short. Surrendering an enormous 86 yard yard catch and run touchdown to SMU wide receiver James Proche. And a bad McKenzie Milton pick, where he threw behind Tre’Quan Smith.
The mistakes did not end there. Milton chucked a pick six in the first half (he could have chucked another with 7:52 in the fourth quarter, but it was dropped). And in the third quarter, TE Jordan Akins had a fumble in the end zone.
But that was all ultimately fine. The Knights got some tremendously explosive plays out of the periodically inconsistent offense. Adrian Killins, Jr. had two highlight touchdown runs, one for thirty-four yards in the second quarter and one for sixty-four yards in third. Killins is college football’s fastest player and supplies more evidence in that regard every week or so.
Of course, we know that Twitter star @TJL_SUdad has pioneered “cheese and bread” as the Killins long touchdown run catch phrase. But this is a game that makes me believe that 1990s hyperviolent comic book duo Milk and Cheese might the more appropriate comparison.
(If I show you the meaningless comic book panel, I also have to show you the highlight, right? Right.)
And it’s not like it was all bad for Milton. Far from it. Despite the turnovers and relative lack of accuracy, he rang up 412 passing yards, the most since Blake Bortles’s performance against Temple in 2013 (you’ll remember that game as The Catch. right? RIGHT?!).
The UCF defense was . . . largely forgettable. The Knights suffered from some of the tackling problems on display against Cincinnati, Austin Peay, and (to a lesser extent) against ECU. But throughout the game they made some big stops on third down. And they weren’t without their own highlights. UCF Safety Kyle Gibson had a crucial recovery of a fumble by a driving SMU in the end zone for a touchback.
Ultimately, the play of the game came with a bit over five minutes left in the fourth quarter. SMU wide receiver Trey Quinn dropped what should have been a certain fourth down catch on the UCF side of the field (on paper, Quinn is the closest to a sure thing one might expect - he’s the AAC’s leading receiver). It was immediately followed by a Killins run that ripped into SMU territory.
But the Mustangs still had a chance. With about three minutes left in the fourth, the Mustangs sacked Milton and knocked the Knights out of field goal range. Down seven, the Ponies had the ball deep on their side of the field with 2:55 seconds left.
. . . The drive ended with a turnover on downs.
But look, the Mustangs continue to look like a profoundly dangerous team. SMU quarterback Ben Hicks was largely on point (yes, he seemed to panic at times, but still). He ended up going 27/51 for 283 yards, a touchdown, and 54 yards rushing. He did not turn the ball over. And his receivers often made clutch catches. James Proche ended up with 7 receptions for 173 yards (including the ridiculous early touchdown catch). Trey Quinn (despite the huge drop) caught eleven passes, while Courtland Sutton held his own against UCF’s stellar CB Mike Hughes and caught five pases for 46 yards. They were helped by the Mustang’s rushing attack - Xavier Jones ran 19 times for 84 yards and a touchdown, with Braeden West chipping in for 55 yards as well.
UCF now has the largest active streak of scoring thirty or more points per game. Hey, I know a bitter rival who wishes they owned that streak.
The Mustangs move on to a key divisional game against Navy. The Knights will have the UConn Huskies at home.
And hey! Ashley Frost didn’t give birth during the game. Thank goodness. Every dad deserves to be there for the birth of his child (mom has no choice but to be there. Sorry, mothers. I’ve seen it go down, and you are the heroes).

Know Your Foes: UCF’s Opponents After Week Nine

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/11/1/16595436/ucf-knights-university-of-central-florida-sos-strength-of-schedule-scott-frost-mckenzie-milton

With the first College Football Playoff Rankings out, strength of schedule now “officially” matters. The #18 UCF Knights have beaten opponents with a combined record of 30-25 (a .545 winning percentage). UCF’s average margin of victory is 31 points. UCF has the best scoring offense in the country (51 points per game) and, of the five unbeaten teams in the FBS, only the Knights have won each game by double digits.
And yet the undefeated Knights are ranked after four two-loss teams: Auburn (6-2), Iowa State (6-2), Mississippi State (6-2), and USC (7-2).
Its clear that tearing through AAC foes – even in UCF’s rapacious manner -- isn’t worth all that much in the eyes of the committee. And the Knights were unfortunately deprived of the opportunity to play a second Power Five program this year when Hurricane Irma prompted the cancellation of the Georgia Tech game.
If UCF wins out, then the Knights will play in a New Year’s Six Bowl. It would be extremely difficult, however, for UCF to be ranked high enough to make the playoffs. Even if UCF continues blowing out opponents, it would take absolute carnage above them for the Knights to move up. Absolute. Carnage.
But please. Root for carnage.
And winning out.
The Knights’ past and future opponents, in schedule order:
FIU Panthers (5-2 Overall, 3-1 Conference USA)
The Panthers continue to have one of their best seasons to date and are a serious contender to win the C-USA East Division. On Saturday, FIU had its best offensive game of the year and hung 41 points on Marshall on the way to an 11 point win. They’re quite good for a C-USA team.
Maryland Terrapins (4-4 Overall, 2-3 Big Ten)
Maryland was down 14-0 against Indiana before surging back to win 42-39.
It sure would be nice if UCF’s only Power 5 victim this year could get to bowl eligibility and at least a .500 record. Getting to five wins is very possible with a game against Rutgers this weekend, but to hit six, the Terps would need to upset one of Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State. Not as easy task for this Maryland team.
#23 Memphis Tigers (7-1 Overall, 4-1 AAC)
Memphis jumped to an early lead over Tulane and did not look back. The Tigers cruised to a 56-26 win.
There’s a very serious possibility of a UCF-Memphis match-up in the AAC Championship game. The Tigers have a single challenge remaining – SMU – and two far easier opponents (Tulsa and ECU).
UCF and Memphis are the only Group of Five teams ranked in the initial College Football Playoff rankings.
Cincinnati Bearcats (2-6 Overall, 0-4 AAC)
The Bearcats were on a bye. Perhaps mercifully, given that they’ve yet to win a single conference game.
ECU Pirates (2-6 Overall, 1-3 AAC)
Also had a bye.
Navy Midshipmen (5-2 Overall, 3-2 AAC)
And yes, Navy had a bye.
Not a ton of AAC games this past week.
The Midshipmen resume play tomorrow against Temple.
Austin Peay Governors (5-4 Overall, 4-1 Ohio Valley Conference)
Many UCF fans seemed not to enjoy crushing Austin Peay as much as they should have. The Knights hung a UCF record 73 points on the Governors and won by 40 this week. It was also the most points scored by any AAC team against any opponent this year.
The Knights’ defensive lapses – including missed tackles and assignments – can certainly be fairly criticized. And no AAC program wants to allow an FCS team to score 33 points. But remember that many of those came in fluky ways. The Governors caught a tipped pass for a touchdown. And caught a touchdown pass that UCF freshman DB Antwan Collier bobbled instead of intercepting. The Governors also had a lineman fall on one of their fumbles for a touchdown.
The Governors may be “only” an FCS team, but they’re a good FCS team. Their other losses are against Miami (OH) and Cincinnati, and FCS powerhouse Jacksonville State.
SMU Mustangs (6-2 Overall, 3-1 AAC)
SMU played a tighter than expected game against lowly Tulsa. The Mustangs were down 28-34 before scoring ten points in the fourth quarter to win. It’s the second week in a row that the Mustangs have cut it close – on October 21, they needed overtime to eke out a 31-28 over Cincinnati.
Of course, SMU’s offense is dangerous (though the defense is . . . not). Other than the War on I-4, this is the most challenging hurdle remaining for the Knights.
UConn Huskies (3-5 Overall, 2-3 AAC)
UConn played the SEC’s Missouri Tigers and got crushed by a score of 52-12. UConn did manage to score first with a safety when a snap went over the head of Missouri’s punter and through the end zone. But the Tigers responded with three touchdowns in the first quarter, swiftly putting the game out of reach.
Very, very, little went right for the Huskies in this one.
Temple Owls (3-5 Overall, 1-3 AAC)
On a bye week.
Told you there weren’t a ton of AAC games this week.
USF Bulls (7-1 Overall, 4-1 AAC)
The dreams of two undefeated teams playing in a clash of the titans on Black Friday is now gone.
On Saturday, USF went up against their first good opponent of the year, the Houston Cougars. And the Bulls lost 28-24. If you want to traumatize your Bulls friends this week, ask them about 4th and 24.
Through Week Nine, USF has still only beaten one team without a losing record, and that’s FCS Stony Brook.
Our game on Black Friday remains risky and – with the Bulls unlikely to lose again before then – a threat to winning the division. Despite not playing up top their potential, the Bulls are a talented team. They’re also hampered by bad playcalling on offense – a fact that was obvious against Houston.
Speaking of bad offense, the Bulls snapped their record 24 game streak of scoring 30 or more points. UCF now holds the longest active streak, with seven.
Previous ‘Know Your Foes’: Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7.

UCF Overcomes Navy for Best Start in Program History

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/21/16515014/ucf-knights-university-of-central-florida-navy-midshipmen-recap-abey-otis-anderson-adrian-killins-jr

The #20 UCF Knights (6-0, 4-0 American Athletic Conference) endured their first tough - and sloppy - game of the season but prevailed 31-21 over the Navy Midshipmen (5-2, 3-2). The victory is hugely significant for the Knights, who now have matched their win total from last year. And at 6-0, this is the best ever start for UCF football. The Knights’ victory also wrecked a streak for Navy, which had won 17 regular season home games in a row.
Though the Knights never trailed, the game was tight throughout.
In the first half, UCF blew numerous opportunities. The Knights had a promising drive blunted by penalties. Then a drive stopped on a failed attempt to convert fourth and one in the red zone. And later, when UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton appeared to tweak his hamstring, Noah Vedral came on briefly; he promptly botched a snap to scuttle good field position. Matthew Wright also missed a 45-yard field goal attempt to close out the half.
The Knights suffered mistakes in the second half as well. The Knights surrendered several long passes to the Midshipmen, including a 75 yard touchdown pass by Zach Abey to Malcom Perry. And McKenzie Milton threw an interception (only his third of the year) in the fourth quarter.
Though far from its usual sharp performance, the UCF offense still accumulated 483 yards. This was a game in which UCF’s speedy young players (and the offensive line, which made huge holes for them) shined. Sophomore Adrian Killins Jr. rushed for 122 yards (his new career high) and two touchdowns. One of those touchdowns was a 79 yard run to immediately answer a Navy TD that had knotted the game at 14-14 early in the second half. Freshman Otis Anderson also had a great game. With a few minutes left in the game and UCF only up three, Anderson had a clutch catch and run for a key first down. Two plays later, he put the Knights up 31-21:
Anderson also added a pair of catches for 47 yards. Nominally a wide receiver, Anderson continues to have success whether used in that role or as a running back.
Much credit for this win belongs to the Knights defense. Linebacker Pat Jasinski played fiercely throughout, ending with a career high fourteen total tackles. Redshirt Freshman cornerback Brandon Moore – usually the weakest link in the Knights’ secondary – had a tremendous game. He tipped a ball that safety Kyle Gibson then intercepted. Later, with the Midshipmen driving, Moore nailed Darryl Bonner on the pitch, forcing and recovering a fumble. Moore also ended Navy’s last drive by picking off a Garret Lewis pass (Lewis replaced Abey at quarterback after a hard hit dazed Abey in the third quarter).
The ten point win is UCF’s smallest margin of victory so far this year (UCF’s previous “low” was a 27 point win over Memphis). But this should not alarm Knights fans in the least. Instead, today’s result demonstrates that UCF can beat quality opponent even when the Knights aren’t playing their best game. Coupled with their win over Memphis several weeks ago, UCF has now beaten the two best teams in the AAC West.
UCF gets a bit of a breather, with FCS program Austin Peay coming to Orlando next Saturday. The Knights will also get a boost from the return of wide receiver Tristan Payton and cornerback Nevelle Clarke, who have now finished serving a six game suspension for failed drug tests.

#20 UCF vs Navy: Preview and Prediction

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/19/16485866/ucf-knights-vs-navy-preview-and-prediction-aac-scott-frost-orlando-preview-kickoff-tv-betting

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Know Your Foes: UCF’s Opponents After Week Seven

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/17/16483148/ucf-knights-university-of-central-florida-future-opponents-strength-of-schedule-new-years-six-g5

Last week in this space, we started talking strength of schedule and how, as between the winner of the War on I-4 and San Diego State, strength of schedule might matter a great deal.
Yeah, so Boise State knocked off SDSU 31-14. The only Group of Five team ranked above the UCF Knights is USF. And – obviously – the Knights have the opportunity to beat the Bulls. UCF controls its own destiny when it comes to playing in a New Year’s Six bowl.
The teams UCF have beaten this year are a combined 15-17. Sure, the Knights have only played two teams with winning records right now – Memphis and FIU. But UCF is blowing everyone off the field, and hasn’t been seriously challenged after the half in any game.
To put that in context, consider the obvious comparator, USF. The Bulls have played six games and the combined record of their opponents is 14-28. One third of their opponents to date have one win. Another third have two wins. The last third consists of a 3-4 Temple team and a 5-2 FCS program, Stony Brook.
As my colleague Luke noted on Twitter:
On to the Knights’ past and future opponents, in schedule order:
FIU Panthers (4-2 Overall, 2-1 Conference USA)
The Panthers beat their AAC foe Tulane this week 23-10. FIU had a balanced attack (218 yards rushing, 220 through the air) and held Tulane’s running game in check.
This is a big deal for FIU – at 4-2 in Butch Davis’s first season, the Panthers have now matched their previous best start in program history.
The Panthers aren’t a very good team, but they’re a very good-for-FIU team.
Maryland Terrapins (3-3 Overall, 1-2 Big Ten)
The Terps lost to their conference opponent Northwestern, in a game where the lead went back and forth. Maryland could not run the ball at all. And the defense was overwhelmed, surrendering 531 yards to Wildcats. The final score was 37-21.
#25/RV Memphis Tigers (5-1 Overall, 2-1 AAC)
A 30-27 win over Navy got the Tigers ranked in the AP Poll (though not the Coaches poll). This is the first time the program history that Memphis has beaten two top 25 teams in one season (you’ll recall the UCLA game?).
UCF’s 40-13 hammering of Memphis is the team’s best win to date.
Cincinnati Bearcats (2-5 Overall, 0-3 AAC)
The Bearcats were clobbered by USF this week, losing 33-3. The USF rushing attack was dominant and the Cincinnati offense was poor. The Bearcats totaled 273 yards of offense – only 3.9 yards per play.
The Bearcats have now dropped four in a row and been outscored 164-79 in those games.
ECU Pirates (1-6 Overall, 1-3 AAC)
Navy Midshipmen (5-1 Overall, 3-1 AAC)
The Midshipmen made a load of mistakes in their loss to Memphis this week. Navy suffered five turnovers. Quarterback Zach Abey was disastrous when called upon to throw the football and went 1-for-7 for 20 yards and two interceptions.
This was Navy’s first real test of the year; they failed it. I expect the Knights to inflict another loss on them this week.
Austin Peay Governors (4-3 Overall, 3-1 Ohio Valley Conference)
The Governors beat Tennessee State 21-17, despite playing most of the game with backup Jeremiah Oatsvall in at quarterback. Ausitn Peay played sound defense, forcing Tennessee State to settle for a number of early field goal attempts (on which Tennessee State was a measly 1-of-3).
SMU Mustangs (4-2 Overall, 1-1 AAC)
The Mustangs had a bye. They resume play next week with a game against the reeling Bearcats.
UConn Huskies (2-4 Overall, 1-3 AAC)
With a 28-24 win over the Temple Owls, UConn snapped an eight game conference losing streak and notched the Huskies’ first road win in almost two years. Much of the credit belongs to the defense which, after looking bad all year, stepped up.
Temple Owls (3-4 Overall, 1-3 AAC)
Temple’s loss to UConn emphasizes that apart from the two best teams in the AAC East, the rest of the division is bad, bad, bad.
#16/#13 USF Bulls (6-0 Overall, 3-0 AAC)
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the USF offense endured some early struggles this week. The first quarter of the Bull’s homecoming game against Cincinnati ended with the score 3-3.[1] But USF’s defense continues to be excellent, and the Bulls ultimately prevailed 33-3.
Previous ‘Know Your Foes’: Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6.
[1] Two weeks ago, the Knights led Cincinnati 20-7 at the end of the first quarter.

UCF Dismantles East Carolina, Moves up to #20 in the Polls

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/15/16479362/ucf-knights-central-florida-dismantles-east-carolina-pirates-aac-scott-frost-orlando-recap-box-score

Another game, another dominating performance by the UCF Knights offense. In what we knew would be a lopsided matchup, the Knights were able to dismantle the East Carolina defense in their 63-21 victory. The 63 points scored ties the single-game record set in 2001 against Liberty. Heading into week 8, #UCFast ranks #5 in offensive yards per game (547) and #1 in points per game (50.6).
McKenzie Milton continued his All-American worthy season by throwing for 324 yards and 2 touchdowns while completing 78% of his passes. He stays in 2nd place behind Baker Mayfield for passer rating (203.6) and yards per attempt (11.6).
The passing game produced some big plays including a 37-yard catch from Tre’Quan Smith, a 42-yard catch from Cam Stewart and a 48-yard touchdown catch from Jordan Akins on the first drive of the game. Otis Anderson also played a big role catching 7 passes for 76 yards. The most impressive catch of the game may have been from defensive lineman Jamiyus Pittman who caught a 4-yard touchdown pass in the 1st quarter.
5 different Knights scored a touchdown on the ground as carries were spread pretty even throughout this deep group of running backs. Special teams and defense contributed to the scoring as well with a 50-yard pick 6 by Tre Neal and a 66-yard punt return touchdown by Mike Hughes.
East Carolina was able to pull a few big passes and runs against the UCF defense, but the Knights were able to hold them in check allowing 347 yards and 21 points in total.
The announced attendance was 40,287 (91% capacity), which is a season high for UCF. Despite cracking the top-25, the Knights have yet to have a sell out this season through 3 home games. Sell out or not, the students came out in force, which was great to see.
The Knights are back in action this Saturday at 3:30 against Navy. It will be the first time in history that these two teams will meet. UCF moved up to #20 in the AP Poll and the Coaches Poll while Navy dropped out of the rankings after losing to #25 Memphis. The Knights might be in for their biggest test of the season as they face off against Navy’s triple-option offense.

#21 UCF vs East Carolina: Preview and Prediction

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/13/16461482/ucf-knights-vs-east-carolina-pirates-prediction-aac-scott-frost-orlando-preview-kickoff-tv-betting

Know Your Foes: UCF’s Opponents After Week Six

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/12/16458938/ucf-knights-central-florida-american-athletic-conference-aac-future-opponents-recap-sos

he issue of whether the UCF Knights have a good resume looks increasingly likely to be significant this year. Now ranked #21/#22 in the Coaches Poll and the AP Poll (respectively), UCF is the third highest ranked team not in a power conference. Ahead of the Knights are the USF Bulls (#15/#18) and the San Diego State Aztecs (#18/#19).
The question of which non-power conference team plays in a New Year’s Six bowl is determined by the highest rank among G5 conference champions. While those rankings don’t start quite yet, it’s reasonable enough to assume the rank order would at least initially approximate the Coach/AP polls as far as UCF, SDSU, and USF are concerned. UCF and USF will have the opportunity to settle things on the field.[1] Between the winner of the War on I-4 and SDSU, strength of schedule may matter a great deal.
(This team is taking things one game at a time, and treating their record as 0-0 each week. Doesn’t mean we have to).
The Knights’ past and future opponents, in schedule order:
FIU Panthers (3-2 Overall, 2-1 Conference USA)
Lost 37-17 to a Middle Tennessee team that was depleted on defense. The loss knocks the Panthers out of first place in Conference USA’s East division. But our Middle Tennessee writer describes them as a “very solid” Conference USA team, so the Panthers have that going for them.
Maryland Terrapins (3-2 Overall, 1-1 Big Ten)
Suffered a devastating 62-14 blowout at the hands of #10 Ohio State. Quarterback Max Bortenschlager (who played most of the game against UCF) went 3-of-12 for 16 yards, was sacked four times, and lost two fumbles. He left the game following a hit to his head and was replaced by Caleb Henderson, now the Terps’ fourth quarterback in five games.
Root for Maryland to get a bounceback win this week against Northwestern, it’s one of the more winnable games remaining on their schedule.
Memphis Tigers (4-1 Overall, 1-1 AAC)
A week after the Knights held Memphis to 13 points (with a touchdown coming on the last play of the game), the Tigers hung 70 on poor UConn.
Riley Ferguson’s stat line against UCF (in for the entire game): 27-of-49, 321 yards, 1 TD, 3 Int.
Riley Ferguson’s stat line against UConn (not in for the entire game): 34-of-48, 431 yards, 7 TDs, 0 Int.
Memphis now plays Navy in a game UCF fans should watch. We play the Midshipmen in two weeks, and they’re the toughest remaining opponent not named USF.
Cincinnati Bearcats (2-4 Overall, 0-2 AAC)
I said I was done underestimating this Knights team, so I predicted a 24 point win.
It was a 28 point win. In only three quarters of play. This is tied for the Knights’ smallest margin of victory so far this season.
ECU Pirates (1-5 Overall, 1-2 AAC)
After showing signs of life against USF, the Pirates lost to Temple, 34-10. Like the Huskies, the Pirates are the dregs of the conference this year.
Expect an easy Homecoming game this week, and a stellar debut for the Knights’ space-themed uniforms.
Navy Midshipmen (5-0 Overall, 3-0 AAC)
Beat Air Force 48-45 thanks to a touchdown pass by Zach Abey with a mere 15 seconds left on the clock. The Midshipmen made a lot of mistakes along the way, including blowing a 21 point second half lead.
This was a game with a lot of offense – Navy rolled up 557 yards while Air Force ripped through the Midshipmen for 621 yards.
While a narrow victory over a one win Air Force team isn’t exactly impressive, Navy remains undefeated, dangerous, and is now ranked at #25/#24.
Austin Peay Governors (3-3 Overall, 2-1 Ohio Valley Conference)
The Governors suffered their first loss to a non-FBS opponent so far this season. Jacksonville State beat them 34-14. Austin Peay has now lost the last eleven games in that series.
SMU Mustangs (4-2 Overall, 1-1 AAC)
Lost to Houston, 35-22. The Mustangs still had 544 yards of total offense, but they failed to capitalize on their opportunities. SMU might benefiting from an increased focused on the running game. The Mustangs ran the ball 26 times, in contrast to 59 passes.
UConn Huskies (1-4 Overall, 0-3 AAC)
The offense was able to keep the Huskies hanging with Memphis for a bit this week. But this team is just awful. It was UConn’s worst defensive performance in program history.
Hockey season started though.
Temple Owls (3-3 Overall, 1-2 AAC)
With a win over ECU (in which Temple scored 24 points unanswered), Temple is back to .500. The Owls Play UConn on Saturday, and will likely get to a winning record after that game.
#15/#18 USF Bulls (5-0 Overall, 2-0 AAC)
Previous ‘Know Your Foes’: Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5.
[1] I have long been confident that the Bulls, with their weak schedule, would be undefeated for the War on I-4. While UCF has to overcome good Navy and SMU teams, I’m predicting UCF will likewise be undefeated at that time.

What more do the UCF Knights need to do for a sellout?

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/11/16454946/what-more-do-the-ucf-knights-need-to-do-for-a-sellout-american-aac-scott-frost-orlando

UCF Knights Score on Every Possession, Cruise to 51-23 win over Bearcats

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/8/16444648/ucf-knights-university-of-central-florida-cincinnati-bearcats-recap-2017-mckenzie-milton-scott-frost

Quarterback McKenzie Milton and the UCF Knights shredded the University of Cincinnati Bearcats defense and cruised to a 51-23 win. UCF got off to a hot start, and in the first five minutes scored touchdowns on passes of 54 and 79 yards, to Dredrick Snelson and Tre’Quan Smith, respectively. It took a total of five plays to take the 13-0 lead.[1] And the Knights never looked back or much slowed down. The offense operated virtually flawlessly, with the Knights scoring on each of their eight possessions (seven touchdowns and a single field goal). UCF now has the nation’s number one scoring offense.
It was only three quarters of football, as pouring rain and thunderstorms scuttled the last quarter. In that context, the statistics are even more impressive. UCF racked up 515 yards of total offense, averaging 12.9 yards per play. Milton’s stat line was a phenomenal 16-of-19 for 374 yards and five touchdowns, his best game yet. Smith had a staggeringly good five receptions for 165 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran off tackle for a touchdown. But perhaps the most ‘feel-good’ touchdown was the 21 yard catch by redshirt senior TE Michael Colubiale. Yes, the dude who tripped a few yards short of the goal line against Maryland.
All wasn’t perfect for the Knights, however. UCF allowed Bearcats QB Hayden Moore a pretty good night: 23-of-40 for 278 yards passing, 81 yards rushing and three total touchdowns (two of them rushing). The defense was also uncharacteristically porous on third down, allowing the Bearcats (a team that usually struggles to convert those opportunities) to go 9 of 15. And a trio of offsides penalties on consecutive plays late in the half got the Bearcats in position for a successful field goal attempt.
The highlight on defense was undoubtedly Seyvon Lowry’s interception. The big man now has interceptions in back-to-back games (giving him a total three for his career). With two, Lowry – a defensive end who’s not on top of the depth chart – is tied with cornerback Mike Hughes and safety Kyle Gibson for most picks so far this season.
Oh, and it looks like the UCF fans who made the trip had a nice time despite the rain.
In the wake of the game, UCF climbed up in both polls, reaching 21st in the Coaches and 22nd in the AP. The Knights play a very bad ECU team next weekend for homecoming.
[1] The Knights failed the two point conversion attempt after the second touchdown.

No. 25 UCF Knights vs University of Cincinnati Bearcats: Preview, Start Time, TV, Betting Line, Prediction

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/6/16434534/ucf-knights-vs-university-of-cincinnati-bearcats-preview-start-time-tv-betting-line-prediction

No. 25 UCF Knights vs University of Cincinnati Bearcats: Preview, Start Time, TV, Betting Line, Prediction
Start Time: 8 PM ET, Saturday, October 7.
TV: ESPNU
Radio: FM 96.9/AM 740 The Game
Location: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Records: Of course, UCF is 3-0, 1-0 AAC. And if you’ve been reading our weekly Know Your Foes post, you’re also aware Cincinnati is 2-3, 0-1 AAC, with a loss to Marshall last week. Yikes.
The Series: UCF has a 2-1 edge. Last year, the Knights got to bowl eligibility with a 24-3 win. The Knights defense did some gloriously nasty things.
Betting Line: UCF opened as a 13.5 point favorite. Then the line moved to -17.
UCF Outlook:
Feels good to see that ranking in the headline.
Been too long not to enjoy it.
You don’t need me to tell you again that the Knights have cruised through the season so far, rolling over a trio of teams that are undefeated but-for their games against UCF. And while FIU isn’t very good (though good enough to be leading their division), wins over Maryland and Memphis are quality wins for the Knights. A battle-tested team (despite not being threatened in the second half all year), the Knights should easily hit 4-0 for the first time since 1988 (the Division II era!).
The McKenzie Milton-led offense has been rolling. The defense has been excellent. The defensive line is mauling people. The linebackers continue to be great. Mike Hughes has been a revelation at corner, and the secondary is far more secure than it looked at the start of the season.
I expect the defense to be the reason the Knights put the Bearcats away early. UCF leads the country in turnover margin with an average of +2.33 per game. Cincinnati is tied for 77th in the country (with a bunch of other teams at) at -1. Likewise, the UCF defense has been brutal to opposing teams on third down. Opponents are a mere 8 of 37 on third down. The Bearcats rank a mere 99th in third down conversions; they convert only a bit more than a third of the time.
Cincinnati Outlook:
The Bearcats have had a rough start under first year head coach Luke Fickell. Cincinnati started the season beating Austin Peay by a mere 12 points. Then lost to Michigan by 22 after keeping it close for about three quarters. Then needed end-of-game heroics to beat Miami (OH). And then lost to Navy. And then lost to Marshall. By 17.
Cincinnati is an uneven team with a lot of young players. The Bearcats have the second worse offense in the American Athletic Conference. Quarterback Hayden Moore is inconsistent – he’s been good at times and struggled seriously at others. Nor can Cincinnati run consistently. The Bearcats are one of the worst teams in the conference in yards per carry with 3.5. If Cincinnati winds up down early (as I think they will), they’re not going to have a lot of ways to get back in the game.
Defensively, Cincinnati is vulnerable on the ground. Neither are they great at defending the pass, but they’ve had less occasion to be tested through the air.
Prediction: Cincinnati is not nearly as good as UCF. And the Knights haven’t given me any reason to doubt their seriousness or intensity against seemingly overmatched opponents.
I’ve also been underestimating our Knights all year. Didn’t predict quite a big enough blowout against FIU. Predicted a Maryland win. and I predicted only a narrow win against Memphis.
So: no more. UCF by 24. At least.
Go Knights.
For more on this game, check out our “Five Questions” with Bearcats blog Down the Drive. Our reciprocal answers to their questions are over here.

Five Questions with Down the Drive (UC Answers)

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/5/16430028/preview-ucf-knights-university-of-central-florida-university-of-cincinnati-bearcats-2017-football

Know Your Foes: UCF's Opponents After Week Five

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/10/4/16426564/know-your-foes-ucfs-opponents-after-week-five-mckenzie-milton-scott-frost

With what UCF has displayed to date, I’ve become virtually certain that the winner of the War on I-4 clinches the division. Seeing what we have to date, I don’t believe either the Knights or the Bulls will have more than one loss by the time it’s Black Friday (and USF, with an extremely easy conference draw, really should be undefeated).
The riskiest game for UCF on the way to the War on I-4 is Navy. SMU should be easier, but still a potentially dangerous game. Aside from these three games, nothing else on the Knights’ schedule looks particularly concerning.
Our past and future opponents, in schedule order:
FIU Panthers (3-1 Overall, 2-0 Conference USA)
Struggled mightily against winless Charlotte before rallying behind the play of quarterback Alex McGough for a razor thin 30-29 victory. Embarassingly, FIU was down 26-7 near the end of the second quarter.
So despite their record (and holding first place in the East division of Conference USA), the Panthers are not a good team. Oddly enough, they could wind up being 4-1 after this week anyway – FIU plays an injury-ravaged Middle Tennessee team.
Maryland Terrapins (3-1 Overall, 1-0 Big Ten)
Oh, I love this one. The Terps handled Minnesota 31-24 despite being a 13 point underdog.
It’s a win that exposes the false narrative that UCF only beat the Maryland because they lost Kasim Hill to injury. Terps third string QB Max Bortenschlager – whom UCF rendered totally ineffective – had a very nice game against Minnesota, going 18/28 for 154 yards, two touchdowns, and adding a third touchdown on the ground.
The Terps play Ohio State this week, and this will ruin the “UCF’s first three opponents are undefeated apart from their losses to the Knights” factoid. Ah well. Maryland is a good team and a quality win for the Knights.
Memphis Tigers (3-1 Overall, 0-1 AAC)
Last week in this spot, I said I’d pick UCF to win in a tight game. Oops. Dude, we blew these guys away.
Memphis remains a good team and what I saw didn’t dissuade me from thinking they could win their division.
Cincinnati Bearcats (2-3 Overall, 0-1 AAC)
At home.
Not good.
QB Hayden Moore was a disaster until garbage time and the running game did little to help. The Bearcats are a team with significant limitations.
ECU Pirates (1-4 Overall, 1-1 AAC)
The ECU offense showed up, but the Pirates still lost to USF in a 61-31 blowout. QB Thomas Sirk performed well. The defense was absolutely shredded, however.
Navy Midshipmen (4-0 Overall, 3-0 AAC)
Navy went down 14-0 early against Tulsa. Then the Midshipmen defense woke up. Navy ended up scoring 31 unanswered points to win.
Austin Peay Governors (3-2 Overall, 2-0 Ohio Valley Conference)
Not a lot of offense here, as the Governors notched a 7-0 win over Tennessee-Martin. Good for Austin Peay’s third straight win in a row, however. The Governors have only lost to FBS programs so far this year.
SMU Mustangs (4-1 Overall, 1-0 AAC)
SMU allowed East division bottom dweller UConn to hang around until the fourth quarter. In the end, the Mustangs put away the Huskies 49-28. Though SMU’s defense line played very well, the rest of the defense underwhelmed.
Seeing how the Knights rolled over Memphis, I’m not overly concerned about our future match-up. But make no mistake – SMU is better than almost all of our East division opponents.
UConn Huskies (1-3 Overall, 0-2 AAC)
The Huskies are a poor team, but the offense is making some improvements.
Still the worst team in the division.
Temple Owls (2-3 Overall, 0-2 AAC)
Lost to Houston, 20-13. The Owls defense did well enough, but Temple just couldn’t get things going offensively.
#18 USF Bulls (5-0 Overall, 2-0 AAC)
The Bulls didn’t start sharp (I’m sure you’re just shocked to hear that), but they poured it on in the second half, outscoring ECU 30-7 in their thirty point win.
This is an excellent USF team with tremendous potential. But they’re still having problems getting everything to click consistently.
Previous ‘Know Your Foes’: Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4.