After dismal openers, both the UCF Knights and the Stanford Cardinal are eager to move on and try to get their respective seasons back on the right track. Last week, the Knights dropped the home opener in embarrassing fashion to FIU while Stanford got beaten up by underdog Northwestern.
Both teams are
suffering from some of the same flaws - an inability to win the battle
in the trenches and overly conservative play calling that drove their
respective fan bases crazy.
There's a lot
riding on this game from a psychological and fan perspective. If the
Knights win, there's the excitement of beating a Power Five team (for
all his achievements, something George O'Leary has failed to do
consistently). And if the Knights lose, they will likely find themselves
1-3 at the start of conference play.
So uh, no pressure guys.
Start time: A late game for most Knights fans, things get underway at 10:30 p.m. ET /7:30 p.m. PT.
Location: Stanford Stadium - Stanford, California.
TV: Fox Sports 1.
Radio: 740-AM - Orlando.
Betting Line: UCF is a +17.5 underdog, the largest margin during the regular season since the Knights played Ohio State in 2012 (+18).
The Series: .
. . it starts on Saturday with the first meeting between these two
teams. UCF has never played a California school. Likewise, Stanford has
never played a team from Florida (and the Cardinal have been around
since 1891).
The Opponent: Stanford
lost to Northwestern 16-6 in a game where the Cardinal fizzled out
after a first promising drive. Much like UCF, a theme for Stanford last
week was missed opportunities. They converted only 3 of 15 third downs,
and their three trips to the red zone resulted in only two field goals.
That third down conversion rate is a big problem for an offense built to
batter and wear down opposing defenses.
Inconsistency
plagued Stanford last week. Players dropped passes (two of which could
have well been touchdowns). And guys on defense dropped interceptions.
The Cardinal gave away the ball twice, including senior QB Kevin Hogan's
interception in the end zone with about a minute left to seal the game.
Hogan did not
impress, ending up 20-of-35 with 155 yards. His accuracy was
questionable and failed to make some pre-snap reads. He was also sacked
three times. And like UCF last week (though not quite as bad),
Stanford's running game was an anemic 3.1 yards per carry (one of
running back Christian McCaffrey's carries went for 27 yards and is the
outlier here).
Stanford also
seemed hampered by conservative play calling by head coach David Shaw.
There were a lot of lackluster choices made, including consistently
running the ball on third and long.
UCF Outlook: Right now, UCF feels like a team capable of losing to anyone. But Stanford, at least, looks vulnerable.
Against the
expectations of many, the Knights' poor performance on the offensive
line carried over from last year into the season. Though perhaps
improved in pass protection, the line did not do a dang thing to open
holes for the running game. The Knights had just 46 rushing yards on 30
attempts for an average of 1.5 yards per carry.
At least based on the loss to FIU, I seem to be wrong again on predicting Will Stanback to have a breakout year. Dontravious Wilson
got the start at running back instead. And while Wilson's yards per
carry were a cringe worthy 2.8, Stanback turned in an abysmal 0.6
(including losses on the last drive of the game which did ultimately
blocked field goal attempt no favors).
The defense
last week also disappointed. Poor tackling was epidemic. The defense
line was not disruptive and FIU often got into the second level. A lot
of plays had to be made by the Knights secondary, and so Shaquill
Griffin ended up tied for a team-leading nine tackles (Drico Johnson was close behind with eight).
But there's some hope for UCF to beat Stanford. The emergence of Jordan Akins
and Tre'Quan Smith was a revelation and demonstrates that UCF has at
least two high quality wide receivers (between the two of them, they had
almost all of UCF's receptions, so it's unclear who else will step up).
And Holman looks improved and played largely mistake free. In other
good news, the Knights were fairly disciplined with only three penalties
(granted, that last false start was brutally costly).
Of course
Knights fans will continue to criticize the play calling from last week,
especially the devotion to an ineffective running game and the choice
to play for a field goal at the end. Running the ball there resulted in
lost yards, then a false start penalty, then a 47 yard attempt by Matthew Wright
which was blocked (his first college attempt!). Still, many of the
Knights' problems can be fixed - we're left to hope that they can be
improved enough for what will be a tough game on Saturday.
For more pre-game coverage of the UCF-Stanford game, check out our "Five Questions" with Stanford blog Rule of Tree and their reciprocal piece over here.
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