UCF 2017 Football Schedule: Reactions and Analysis

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/2/10/14578988/ucf-2017-football-schedule-reactions-and-analysis

The American Athletic Schedules were announced yesterday, which means it’s time to discuss how things shape up for the Knights. UCF presented the schedule with some whimsy and also a much more slick short video (analysis follows):

ANALYSIS

There’s a lot to like in the non-conference games. The Knights play FIU at home to begin the season. If you’re going to play a C-USA team you ought to drub, let it be an in-state team! Plus some of us suffer lingering trauma from how the 2015 season began and it would be great to put that further behind by reprising this past season’s thrashing of the Golden Panthers. Cupcake Maine slots in on September 30.

The marquee non-conference games come in weeks two and three: home versus Georgia Tech and away at Maryland. Both are winnable games, with neither being the buzzsaw that Michigan was this past year. Hey, in McKenzie Milton’s first college start, the Knights still took the Terps to double overtime. The Knights have a reasonable shot to pick up their first win over a Power Five program under Scott Frost.

The conference foes from the AAC West this year are Memphis, Navy (reigning west divisional champs), and SMU. So farewell to the Houston Cougars, whom the Knights had played every year since the inception of the AAC. And farewell also to west division punching bag Tulane.

The east divisional slate has some unknowns – just about everyone has a new head coach in 2017. Only ECU has a returning head coach, Scottie Montgomery, who like Scott Frost will be in his second year. I’ll go ahead and tab UConn and Temple as the divisional games I think are the most secure wins for the Knights.

Of course, the regular season ends with the War on I-4 against USF at home. The game’s on Black Friday, which means more TV eyeballs. The Bulls have every reason to be the divisional favorite and the conference favorite. Could the rivalry game decide the division? Don’t hate me for thinking the answer is no. It’s obviously so early, but I foresee the Knights getting dinged up in-conference prior to November 24. And the Bulls? Eh, not so much.

The three game stretch of Memphis/Georgia Tech/Maryland seems like the toughest stretch of the schedule. Just as I mention above that the Knights might well get a marquee win over a P5 school in that stretch, a realistic possibility exists that UCF drops all three of those to start 1-3 (I assume the opening week to be a win over FIU). The Knights don’t otherwise seem to have any particularly difficult games back-to-back.

What are your thoughts of how the schedule sets up? The comments are yours.

Cordarrian Richardson flips from Maryland to UCF, to become best prospect in G5

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/2/2/14484932/cordarrian-richardson-flips-from-maryland-ucf-becomes-best-prospect-in-g5-scott-frost-nsd17

UCF 2017 Recruiting Class: Initial National Signing Day Reactions

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/2/1/14474746/ucf-football-2017-recruiting-class-national-signingday-rankings-scott-frost-central-florida

2/2/17 Update: And now we’ve got to change the way we look at this class. And that’s awesome. The UCF Knights have flipped four star recruit Cordarrian Richardson from Maryland. He’s the eighth best running back in the country. Here’s what this means:

• The Knights now have the highest-ranked player to sign with a Group of Five school.
• The Knights now have signed a four star player for at least three classes in a row.
• The Knights now have the 54th best recruiting class this year. This makes them the best G5 class.
• The Knights now have their best-regarded recruiting class in school history.
• This class is now another Scott Frost recruiting triumph.

So by all means, keep reading our initial reactions below. But the final analysis of what it all means now changes for the better.

---

UCF appears to have wrapped up its signing class by late morning. Scott Frost and the Knights have signed a class of 21 recruits. As of this writing, Rivals puts the Knights’ class ranking at 60^th overall and 3^rd in the AAC behind Memphis and Cincinnati, both of which have larger classes than the Knights.[1] It seems likely the Knights will end up with the third best class in the conference, mostly consistent with our observations pre-National Signing Day.

All of the Knights are either two or three star recruits. This breaks with the recent pattern of UCF signing a four star player or two each year. From 2014 to 2016, the Knights signed at least one four star player. In 2014, it was Kyle Gibson. In 2015, Tristan Payton. And in his first recruiting class last year, Frost brought in Dredrick Snelson and Aaron Dowdell.

Not that this should make UCF fans particularly gloomy. Of course, recruiting ratings are as a general matter a bit imprecise. Under George O’Leary’s tenure, the Knights had a lot of players with not a lot of stars blossom. No UCF fan can ever forget that Blake Bortles as one of the prime examples. And of course we could name a bunch more – Kemal Ishmael (two stars), Pro Bowler Josh Sitton (two stars), A.J. Bouye (two stars) . . . feels like we could do this all day. And if we want to talk current players, AAC Defensive Player of the Year Shaquem Griffin had a modest three stars. It is early to judge Frost’s eye for the two or three star talent, but undoubtedly three star freshman McKenzie Milton, Jawon Hamilton, and Adrian Killins were important for UCF this year.

So that’s what we can view as the overall context. But now this year’s class.

Much of the drama came before signing day with some late de-commitments. JUCO DT Jamari Chisholm (two stars) committed to Texas when the Longhorns offered late last night. Unfortunate, and indicative of the present Power Five-AAC dynamic. After being pledged to the Knights for six months, QB Marvin Washington (two stars) decommitted two weeks ago to re-open his recruitment is headed to UConn. UConn! It’s annoying but understandable as Washington was unhappy about two other quarterbacks being taken in the class.

The Knights did have a bit of a late and positive surprise in pulling in Marlon Williams (three stars), a wide receiver who at one point was committed to USC. He pledged to UCF last night and sent his letter of intent a bit on the later end this morning, choosing the Knights over Georgia Tech. Most of the day’s signed letters of intent were in by 9 AM for UCF.

As a broad observation, it’s great to see this staff continue to have success recruiting Florida. The Knights have now added 15 in-state players. Too often it felt that the O’Leary staff failed to pull in players from in-state and seemed not to be looking hard enough. But as he did last year, Frost has added a plethora of Florida players, including from talent-rich South Florida.

Quarterback was a position of need now that Justin Holman is gone and Tyler Harris and Garrett Kruczek have transferred. That of course made the Marvin Washington decommitment a bit disconcerting. Frost had wanted “at least” two quarterbacks in this class and, well, he did end up with two: Darriel Mack Jr. (three stars) and Noah Vedral (two stars). Frost has said it’s realistic to expect a freshman to be involved in the quarterback competition, and it would seem that Mack – a dual-threat kind of guy – would be the most likely.

The offensive line was a weakness last season and needed an infusion of talent. The Knights brought in three linemen in Cole Schneider (6’4”, 300 pounds, two stars), Samuel Jackson (6’6”, 310 pounds, three stars, great name), and Julio Castillo (6’6”, 315 pounds, two stars). That’s some notable size – though not a “hard” average, it’s fair to think that the average offensive lineman is about 6’ 3” and 302 pounds. Schneider’s commitment is a bit noteworthy in that he resisted late runs by Purdue and Michigan State.

The Knights have three recruits from the 2017 class already enrolled. CB Antwan Collier (three stars), WR Emmanuel Greene (three stars), and RB Otis Anderson (three stars) are on-campus and will practice in the Spring.

On the whole, it seems like a very satisfactory second class for Scott Frost. Needs were addressed, though perhaps not as thoroughly in some areas as would be ideal. It’s not the “triumph” I described last year’s class as, but my enthusiasm in that regard was triggered by Frost’s performance given the compressed winless season, the compressed timeframe following his hire, and the sluggish recruiting by O’Leary’s staff. Knights fans should come away from signing day pleased this year. After all, it’s hard to complain when you wind up with one of the three best recruiting classes in the conference.

[1] I admit my biases here: I have tended to have more faith in the ratings by Rivals and so use those throughout this post. But – again as of this writing -- 247Sports has the Knights also at 60th overall but 2nd in the AAC. The difference in conference ranking is likely affected by the fact that 247Sports counts August 2016 enrollee Anthony Roberson in the 2017 class, while Rivals does not.

UCF and Pitt Agree to Home-and-Home Series

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/1/19/14325698/ucf-knights-pittsburgh-panthers-pitt-football-2018-2019-home-and-home-series

The UCF Knights and the Pittsburgh Panthers have agreed to home-and-home football games in 2018 and 2019. The Knights have the first of the games on September 29, 2018. UCF travels to Pitt in 2019.

That means the non-conference slate for the next two years shapes up nicely. In 2018, UCF has games against UNC (like Pitt, also in the ACC's Coastal division) and an FAU team that maybe will have Lane Kiffin as a head coach still. In addition to Pitt, the Knights host Stanford and play at FAU in 2019.

UCF and Pitt have little (but some!) history. They played in 2006 and the Knights got crushed 52-7. It was a nightmare from the beginning: Pitt returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown. The Knights had their first - of many - turnovers on the subsequent possession. It led to another touchdown, and the Knights never threatened. It was a Friday night game on ESPN. Sigh.

We're always happy to see UCF schedule seemingly winnable home-and-home games against P5 opponents. Pitt's been pretty decent the last couple years (hey, they beat Clemson this season) but haven't been better than 8-5 since 2009.

Reviewing UCF in 2016: Our Favorite Losing Season Ever?

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/1/13/14232940/ucf-knights-football2016-season-review-university-of-central-florida-scott-frost-shaquem-griffin

Has a losing season ever felt this good?

Sure, the Knights went 6-7, dropping the Cure Bowl to Arkansas State in brutally hard-to-watch fashion. Adding to the post-bowl funk was the fact that the Knights had also dropped their last two regular season games. But progress from the utter disaster of 2015 was obvious. It’s great to see this many steps forward from a winless and ugly 2015.

It turned out that UCF was a middling AAC team in 2016. The Knights beat the bad teams they played, and proved unable to beat any good ones (a fact we started harping on before the Tulsa game and unfortunately were never proven wrong). UCF’s wins came against SC State (5-6, and as an FCS program not ranked in S&P+), FIU (4-8, 120^th in S&P+), ECU (3-9, 100^th in S&P+), UConn (3-9, 123^rd in S&P+), Tulane (4-8, 106^th in S&P+), and Cincinnati (4-8, 86^th in S&P+). Hey, if you’re a 5-6 program or worse, don’t cross the Knights, amiright?

There were near-misses against good teams of course. The Knights spotted P.J. Walker and Temple a miracle drive that ended in a touchdown pass with one second left in the game. And UCF collapsed down the stretch against Houston to waste a lead and lose 24-31. Plus there was a double overtime loss in McKenzie Milton’s first college game ever against fellow mediocre team Maryland.

But being a middling team is so, so much better than where the Knights fell the previous season. In 2015, UCF couldn’t beat FIU in the home opener. Or FCS Furman in the third game of the season (the Paladins finished with a losing record). And the Knights spotted beleaguered Tulane their only win of the season. That doesn’t even touch on the blowouts to unimpressive teams: a 37 point loss to UConn (who finished with a losing record), a 37 point loss to ECU (also finished with a losing record), and a 45 point loss to Cincinnati (finished a game above .500). Or the blowouts against good teams like Houston (48 point loss) or USF (41 point loss).

Winless to bowlbound in consecutive years is a rare feat.[1] For the Knights to get to 6-7 a year after that misery is a testament to this coaching staff and the buy-in from players. We saw Scott Frost-recruited freshman like McKenzie Milton (starting QB since the Maryland game, except for injury), Jawon Hamilton (“co-starting” and then starting RB), and Adrian Killins (explosive threat at RB) make a difference. And on defense, we saw players who played little under George O’Leary excel. AAC Defensive Player of the Year Shaquem Griffin is the obvious example, and was clearly better utilized at linebacker than his prior position of safety. And he’s not the only example (5’9” redshirt senior Mark Rucker, anyone?).

Now, was some improvement from 2015 to 2016 virtually certain as long as the Knights could avoid having a bizarre injury curse for the second year in a row? Sure. But that doesn’t diminish how impressed I am with the rebuilding job by Frost and his staff. Check out the numbers:

• Overall Defense

o Rank in yards per game improved from 114^th to 39^th

o S&P+ rank improved from 108^th to 30^th

• Rushing Defense

o Rank in yards per game improved from 100^th to 62^nd

o S&P+ rank improved from 105^th to 79^th

• Passing Defense

o Rank in yards per game improved from 110^th to 28^th

o S&P+ improved from 108^th to 19^th

And unremarkable, but still a bit improved:

• Overall Offense

o Rank in yards per game improved from 128^th to 113^th

o S&P+ rank improved from 127^th to 117^th

• Rushing Offense

o Rank in yards per game improved from 127^th to 104^th

o S&P+ improved from 128^th to 120^th

• Passing Offense

o Rank in yards per game improved from 102^nd to 89^th

o S&P+ improved from 122^nd to 108^th

Obviously that’s a turnaround driven by the defense, so much credit to defensive coordinator Erik Chinander. One would have hoped for more progress with an offensive-minded head coach.

So there will be much to improve for 2017. The offense continues to need help, especially the offensive line. Quarterback play must be much improved, but I take heart that this really should have been, and was intended to be, a redshirt year for Milton. If improvement can be had in these areas, UCF has the running backs and wide receivers to take advantage. And this staff has shown the aggressiveness on offense that one wants to see – I’ve loved the choices to go for it on fourth down and the two point conversions.

The 2017 defense will likely be dicier than it was this year. Say farewell to UCF’s second through sixth leading tacklers. Say farewell to the secondary. Happily the Knights return Shaquem Griffin, undoubtedly the most productive player on either side of the ball. The defensive line will also be back. And I like what we can expect to see out of Pat Jasinski and Chequan Burkett with more playing time. Burkett played well in 2015 and was the team’s third leading tackler.

I believe there is much to look forward to next season and 2016 has provided plenty of reasons to believe in Scott Frost. As happy as someone can be with a losing season, I am with this one.

[1] Though one the Knights have done before, in George O’Leary’s first two years.

Cure Bowl Recap: Arkansas State 31 UCF 13

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/12/18/13996864/cure-bowl-recap-arkansas-state-31-ucf-13-red-wolves-knights-sunbelt-aac-kendall-sanders-orlando

Previewing the Cure Bowl: UCF Knights versus Arkansas State Red Wolves

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/12/16/13985976/autonation-cure-bowl-ucf-knights-arkansas-state-red-wolves-preview-odds-tv-prediction

Start Time: Saturday, December 17, 2016 at 5:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Central.

Location: Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL. The former home venue of the (then-Golden) Knights, and home to UCF stories both wonderful and strange.

TV/Streaming: CBS Sports Network

Radio: FM 96.9 The Game (Orlando)

Odds: UCF opened as a 6.5 point favorite, and now ranges between a 6 and 7 point favorite depending where you’re inclined to look.

Records: Arkansas State is 7-5 and, at 7-1 in the Sun Belt, has a share of their conference title. UCF is 6-6 (4-4 in the American Athletic Conference).

All-Time Series: 1-0, Knights. UCF beat Arkansas State 31-20 back in 1991.

About the Cure Bowl: This will only be the second Cure Bowl played. Last year, the bowl hosted a 27-16 win by San Jose State over Georgia State. It was the only bowl game to ever end with two teams with losing records. But it ended up pretty good actually:

This game took two historically meh teams that had never heard of each other, plopped them in a cavernously empty stadium in not-as-warm-as-you-thought Florida, and told them they were playing for a trophy that didn't exist last year.

Yet the players and fans and coaches acted as if it meant the world.

The bowl appears financially solvent, and then some. Over a million real dollars went to charity.

This match-up is more compelling. Arkansas State has been dominant in the Sun Belt for years, again winning a share of the conference title. UCF is playing across town from its campus in its former home venue, in a bowl for which the Executive Director Alan Gooch is a former Knights DB, assistant coach, and (briefly) interim head coach.

UCF Outlook: First year head coach Scott Frost has the UCF program energized and has engineered an impressive rebound from last year’s winless, hopeless, and joyless slog. Despite Frost’s reputation as an offense-minded coach, the strength of the team has been DC Erik Chinander’s defense. UCF’s most productive player (on either side of the ball) has been one-handed linebacker and AAC defensive player of the year Shaquem Griffin. The offense has been largely dysfunctional and has struggled to execute. Freshman quarterback McKenzie Milton can be very good at times, but he can also make a ton of mistakes.

But what if I told you I thought third downs were going to be critical in the Cure Bowl, and that this would somehow favor the Knights? Now to be clear, the Knights are ranked 123^rd in the country on converting third downs. But Arkansas State also stinks at third down conversions. In fact, The Red Wolves are one of only five teams worse than the Knights. The UCF defense however is ranked seventh in third down conversion defense – opposing teams are converting only about 30% of them against the Knights.

The thing about this UCF team though is that they haven’t beaten a good team all year. Wins have come against South Carolina State (5-6), FIU (4-8), ECU (3-9), UConn (3-9), Tulane (4-8), and Cincinnati (4-8). Not even the FCS school has a winning record. None of these teams are ranked better than 91 in S&P+.

But Arkansas State’s S&P+ ranking? Oh, that’s 92.

Arkansas State Outlook: The Red Wolves have dominated the Sun Belt in recent years, either winning outright or sharing the conference title five of the last six years. They’ve benefited from a string of excellent but short term coaches - Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn, Bryan Harsin, and now Blake Anderson.

Anderson is known for a focus on offense. And yet, like the Knights, defense has emerged as the strength of this Arkansas State team. The defensive ends - Sun Belt Player of the Year Ja’Von Rolland-Jones and Chris Odom are nasty in all the best ways. But on the other side of the ball, the offensive line has struggled in run blocking and pass protection. And of course there’s the poor performance on third down. It’s going to be crucial for the line to open run lanes and protect QB Justice Hansen and move the ball consistently.

The Red Wolves started slow this year with an 0-4 start. And that wasn’t a murderous, front-loaded schedule. I’ll grant you Auburn, but the other three early losses came against Toledo, Utah State, and Central Arkansas. But Arkansas State turned it on through the conference schedule, with only a few being close – a one point game against Georgia Southern went Arkansas State’s way, and a five point loss at ULL. The margins in-conference were mostly comfortable for this team.

Prediction: I foresee a defensive struggle. Both offenses are cripplingly flawed on third down. But I suspect that UCF edges it out, perhaps with a critical turnover or two. I’ll go UCF 24, Arkansas State 20.

For more on the Cure Bowl, you can check out our UCF: Get to Know the Foe over here.

UCF Fans: Get to Know Bowl Foe Arkansas State

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/12/15/13969262/ucf-knights-arkansas-state-red-wolves-autonation-cure-bowl-2016-prevew-q-a

On Saturday, the UCF Knights will take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves in the AutoNation Cure Bowl. We cover both teams here at Underdog Dynasty. But to be frank, I suspect many UCF fans aren’t overly familiar with the Red Wolves (the teams played once, in 1991, a UCF win).

Let’s fix that.

I’ve asked our Arkansas State writer Martin L. Ferguson some questions about his team. His answers are below. And if you want more of Martin’s Arkansas State insights, check them out here.

1. Martin, help us understand Arkansas State as a program. What has been its overall arc? Any program-defining moments, heroes, or stories that UCF fans should know about?

From 1992 to 2010, ASU felt the pains of transitioning to Division 1, going 77-162-2 with five different head coaches. The lack of investment in the program showed in salaries, facilities, and the general disinterest from the fan base. The recent history of ASU football (2011-2016) has been called "The One and Done Era," and started with the hiring of a string of young, eager, offensive minded coaches (Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn, Bryan Harsin, and finally Blake Anderson) that energized the program and brought success. But the program ultimately also lost the first three to jobs at larger programs (Ole Miss, Auburn, Boise State). That combined with the right school president (Chuck Welch) and AD (Terry Mohajir) guiding the program, helped lay the foundation for the first 6 consecutive winning seasons since 1912-17.

2. Arkansas State has won the Sun Belt – either outright or sharing the honor – five of the last six years. To what do you attribute the Red Wolves’ recent dominance?

The magic formula seems to be a mix of factors. First, hire young, aggressive, offensive-minded coaches who all had similar offensive philosophies so that when they leave for a bigger job, the recruits you have on campus somewhat fit the style and tempo of play of the next coach. The next factor is good recruiting, which shows in the conference rankings with ASU being one or two consistently in recruiting. The third part of that is the commitment to facilities. The school has already expanded its pressbox and added a club level with luxury suites, a state-of-the-art indoor practice facility, and eventually a new football operations center. All of these projects combined will be more than 40 million dollars invested in the program in 5 years.

3. Who should Knights fans be most concerned about on Saturday? Is it Sun Belt Player of the Year Ja’Von Rolland-Jones?

Rolland-Jones is the Sun Belt career sack leader, but at the other end is Chris Odom who also has 12.5 sacks on the season, one more than Rolland-Jones. The twosome were both on the Ted Hendricks Award watch list for best college DE in America, the only 2 teammates on the list.

Offensively 5'5" RB Warren Wand is one to watch. Some have called him the human Mario Kart for his agility and ability to bounce off tacklers. He has physically willed a Red Wolves offense that has struggled at times.

4. What do you view as the critical position match-up against my Knights?

This will be a defensive struggle I believe, so the ASU offensive line's ability to open run lanes and protect QB Justice Hansen will decide whether ASU can be consistent enough to get points on the board.

5. The advanced statistics says UCF has a 61% win probability. And the Knights are a 5 to 6.5 point favorite, depending where you look. Is that fair or unfair?

Seems fair enough with this team. It has had to rely on tough defensive play all year to be successful with the inconsistent play of younger offensive starters and new transfers.

Orlando It Is! Arkansas State To The Cure Bowl

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/12/4/13836558/orlando-it-is-arkansas-state-to-the-cure-bowl-ucf-knights-red-wolves-sunbelt-aac-autonation-camping

UCF’s One-Handed LB Shaquem Griffin is the AAC Defensive Player of the Year

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/11/30/13795714/ucf-knights-shaquem-griffin-lb-american-athletic-conference-defensive-player-of-the-year-2016

In his first year as a starter, linebacker Shaquem Griffin was named the American Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year. He’s been a huge part of UCF’s rebound this season — one in which defense carried the team — and has been the Knights’ most productive player. Shaquem saw little playing time under George O’Leary, but thrives in the base 3-4 defense the Knights field now.

With eleven sacks, Shaquem leads the conference and ranks tenth in the nation. He places second in the AAC in tackles for loss with 19 -- good also for tenth in the nation. And Shaquem accounted for about a tenth of the Knights’ total tackles this year.

It’s all the more impressive that he’s excelled this year with just one hand, his left one having been amputated when he was 4 as a result of amniotic band syndrome (a congenital birth defect which left him with painful and “jelly-like” fingers).

And yes, he did snag an interception this year.

Shaquem is the second UCF player to be named the AAC’s Defensive Player of the Year (cornerback Jacoby Glenn shared that honor in 2014 with Tank Jakes from Memphis).

UCF also placed multiple players on the AAC All-Conference Teams. Shaquem naturally made the first team, while his twin brother Shaquill made the second. Shaquill led the team in both interceptions (4) and passes broken up (12). Noseguard Jamiyus Pittman joined Shaquill on the second team, and safety Drico Johnson (who memorably scored two defensive touchdowns against Tulane) slotted in at honorable mention.

Fortunately for a UCF defense that graduates a ton of seniors, both Shaquem (a redshirt junior) and Pittman (a junior) ought to be back next year.

UCF Suffers 48-31 Loss against USF in the War on I-4

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/11/26/13753716/ucf-knights-ucf-bulls-war-on-i4-i-recap-tre-quan-smith-marlon-mack-quinton-flowers

USF won the very first War on I-4 official trophy with a 48-31 beating of UCF. The rivalry series is now 2-2 in the AAC era, with the Bulls holding the overall 6-2 edge.

The Knights lost the way we worried they would. UCF continued to be dysfunctional on offense, losing turnovers and struggling badly on third down. The Knights entered the game converting only 31.1% of their third downs. Hard to believe, but UCF managed to lower their average by going 5 of 17.

The UCF defense was good for stretches but ended up mauled by Bulls RB Marlon Mack and QB Quinton Flowers who shredded the Knights on long runs. They ended up with 155 and 152 yards rushing respectively, and two touchdowns each.

In stark contrast, the UCF running game sputtered and was mostly contained by USF. The Knights ended with a mere 64 yards rushing on 35 attempts. The Knights did collectively pass for 338 yards and wide receiver Tre’Quan Smith had a spectacular 183 yards receiving and two touchdowns. /it wasn’t going to be enough.

But there was promise when the game began. UCF’s first drive was everything a Knights’ fan could want. Adrian Killins returned the game’s opening kickoff to put UCF in great field position. The Knights moved the ball smoothly and Smith set up the Jawon Hamilton touchdown with a long reception where he wove through the USF defense. The loss of starting right tackle Wyatt Miller to injury on the drive, however, would be felt.

Then followed a long stretch of more typical UCF dysfunction on offense, punctuated by murderous running by USF’s stellar RB Marlon Mack.

UCF fended off the Bulls on their first drive, but the Knights’ second drive was simply awful. We saw an incomplete pass on first down. Then no gain for Killins on the stretch play. And finally Milton sacked for a mammoth loss.

Mack promptly tore through the defense for a 43 yard touchdown run.

More offensive problems followed as the Knights failed to answer on its second three-and-out of three drives, which saw Milton throw a ball into the dirt and another too far out in front of the running back.

After a UCF stop, disaster struck the Knights on a Milton to Hamilton pitch for the second week in a row when Hamilton fumbled and USF defensive end Juwaun Brown scooped and scored.

The second quarter was utterly bizarre.

Brandon Behr hit a 33 yard field goal for the Bulls. And not long after, Marlon Mack hammered through the UCF defense on a 56 yard touchdown run in which he maybe broke a thousand tackles. I suppose that’s an exaggeration, but probably not by much.

And finally the UCF offense responded, adding their own play to the highlight reel. Wide receiver Tristan Payton threw a deep pass off the reverse which Tre’Quan Smith hauled in for the 72 yard touchdown. The Knights would try another deep pass by Payton off the reverse later in the game, though without success. Which was certainly understandable because the first one was magic:

UCF followed the trick play with an on-side kick attempt. It was called Knights ball on the field, but reversed following review for illegal touching by Tre Neal. Neal had just barely stepped out of bounds and ended up the first player to touch the ball.

The second half opened with disaster for UCF. On the second play from scrimmage, Flowers broke off a 62 yard touchdown run. But the third quarter proved more promising for the Knights, who had their first sustained drives since the opening one. Matthew Wright hit a 33 yard field goal and Taj McGowan added a short touchdown run.

The Bulls moved the ball well to open the fourth quarter, but the drive was stymied thanks to big tackle for loss by Shaquem Griffin and a stop on the run by Flowers. Behr’s field goal attempt went wide right, giving the Knights the ball with a little over ten minutes left in the game and down only by 7.

The Knights’ hope for a rally was promptly crushed. DE Mike Love tipped a Milton pass into the arms of LB Auggie Sanchez, whose interception return left the Bulls in excellent field position. Flowers immediately sliced through UCF for another touchdown run, the Bull’s tenth one play touchdown drive of the year.

Milton then tossed a weak pass intercepted by Nate Godwin. The Knights hopes could not survive the back to back picks thrown by Milton, and Behr tacked on another field goal to make it 41-24.

Though too late to make a difference, there were a couple moments left for Knights fans to appreciate. Strong-armed senior Justin Holman came in at quarterback in the game’s waning minutes. A few plays later, and he had thrown a laser to Tre’Quan Smith. Smith in turn stiff-armed a USF defender to the ground and added another impressive long touchdown catch to his stat line, this time of 41 yards. It was a nice moment for a senior quarterback who once looked like Blake Bortles’s heir before being derailed by injuries.

USF ultimately tacked on an unnecessary touchdown with the carry by D’Ernest Johnson when they could have taken a knee and ended the game. Not that we’re bitter – that’s great rivalry fodder and exactly what we hope the Knights would do in the same spot.

The Bulls hit ten wins for the first time in school history and will win the AAC East if the Temple chokes against a bad ECU team tonight.

UCF ends the regular season 6-6 and still has a chance for a winning record in Head Coach Scott Frost’s first season with the bowl game.

War on I-4 Q&A with The Daily Stampede

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/11/25/13749006/war-on-i-4-ucf-knights-usf-bulls-preview-central-florida-south-florida-mckenzie-milton

We talked with Collin Sherwin of our SB Nation sister site The Daily Stampede to get more insight on USF in advance of tomorrow’s War on I-4.

1. How much do we collectively hate Temple this year? Seriously.

Well, you guys blew a lead late to them, which gave us real joy. I believe that now qualifies as Schadenfreude since if you had won that game all we'd need is a win on Saturday to go to the AAC Championship.

Temple is doubly-annoying to us since even though we destroyed them at Ray Jay last year, they had the far easier crossover division schedule and thus the much easier path to the title game. We've needed them to lose a game now five times to put in the drivers seat late in the season, and they haven't done so yet.

I was at our game in Philly this year, and they still don't have any fans. And they have absolutely danced through the raindrops of luck since Bortles hit J.J. Worton. UCF got all the breaks and luck in 2013 and '14, and Temple in '15 and '16. Someday it'll be USF's turn I hope.

2. I still remember the brilliant haiku at Voodoo Five about Willie Taggart’s bus being on fire and haunted. But it turns out that Taggart’s records have trended up at USF (2-10, 4-8, 8-5, 9-2 and pending). Is he still the head coach at USF next year? Beyond that?

It'll depend on forces outside of USF's control. If a big P5 job wants him, with USF's budgetary restrictions it'll be basically impossible to get him to stay. He was even thought of as a possible replacement for Jimbo at FSU, but for now it appears he's staying in Tallahassee.

USF just doesn't have the money to compete with even marginal P5 jobs. And until Mike Aresco renegotiates those TV rights and gets us all a bit more cash, this is going to be the situation.

3. Last week’s game against SMU seemed tighter than many would have expected for the Bulls. What do you attribute that to?

The Bulls’ inability to get a stop consistently (which has been the problem all season), and the offense having some weird things happen in the fourth quarter. The defense did get that big stop on fourth and one to win the game, but overall that's been a struggle all season. Teams have been running the ball pretty easily on USF all season.

And I don't think you can begrudge the nation's second-best offense (by S&P) a couple of small errors. They've been just incredible this season, but sometimes unusual stuff just pops up at the wrong time. Certainly not worried about it long-term.

4. From the USF perspective, what do you see as the key match-ups on Saturday?

Can the USF defense force McKenzie Milton into mistakes, and can USF run the ball so effectively on UCF they won't need to worry about throwing into that talented secondary. I think USF can put up some big numbers, but a lot of it will be out of their zone read-style packages, with some Rodney Adams jet sweep action in there too.

5. Obviously, the strength of this USF team is the offense. The defense, uh, not so much. What might the Knights be able to exploit when they have the ball?

Just run it. Run it left and run it right and run it up the middle. Defensive coordinator Tom Allen brought this 4-2-5 system to Tampa, but he left for Indiana this year where they've also had success with it. Raymond Woodie has been the guy catching most of the flack from the fan base for the oft-poor performances from the previously-titled #Bullshark defense. No matter what happens to Taggart, I think we'll all be stunned if he's the DC next season.

The Bulls are 104th in S&P defensively, 110th on 1st downs, 119th in Havoc Rate... they've got serious problems on that side of the ball. And they haven't put together a good half since the first against Navy (where they were really good against one of the best rushing teams in America, so go figure). You can run the ball on USF, and you should do so a lot and often.

6. Unfortunately, I have little reason to believe my Knights and their dysfunctional offense will win the War on I-4 this year. Knowing your team as you do, what do you think has to happen for UCF to upset USF?

Control the clock, keep USF's Gulf Coast Offense off the field, and force Quinton Flowers to try and beat you from the pocket. He's certainly capable of it, but that's your best chance. You'll also need to spy him, as if you don't he'll just pull it down and run for every first down available.

The USF offense is pure poetry and a joy to behold. The defense is pretty terrible however. Run the ball early and often.

The War on I-4: Previewing UCF-USF

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/11/25/13745262/ucf-knights-v-usf-bulls-football-preview-tv-streaming-betting-line-prediction-war-on-i-4-i4

Start Time: Saturday, November 25, 2016 at Noon EST.

Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL.

TV/Streaming: CBSSN.

Radio/Live Stats: 96.9 FM/ 740 AM in Orlando and 134/201 on Sirius/XM. Check over here for live stats.

Odds: USF opened as a 9.5 point favorite and is now a 10 point favorite.

Records: UCF is 6-5, 4-3 in the AAC. USF is 9-2 and 6-1 in the AAC.

All-Time Series: The Bulls are 5-2 all-time in the War on I-4. USF owned this series in the pre-AAC days, going 3-0. But the Knights have the 2-1 edge in the AAC era.

It’s official this year, “War on I-4” (thankfully we can bury the wretchedly inorganic “I-4 Corridor Clash” that some tried to push). There’s a rivalry trophy and everything. Two, actually – one for football and one for all sports.

Last year the Bulls blasted the Knights 44-3, in a game where the Knights could not do a damn thing. But the last time the game was played in Tampa, the UCF won 16-0 – it was USF’s first ever shutout loss at home.

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Let’s talk about the stakes for a moment. For UCF, this is the Spite Bowl. Look here:

The Bulls are on the cusp of finally being able to put something on this chart – a ten win season. It would be historic for the USF, a program which is hard up for meaningful milestones. And I mean hard up for milestones. USF’s media notes highlights that the Bulls “Reached No. 2 ranking in 2007,” despite the fact that they promptly lost three in a row and ultimately ended the season with a Sun Bowl loss to Oregon.

USF might get the tenth win in a bowl game anyway, it’s true. But a UCF win here also eliminates USF from winning the AAC East, even if Temple stumbles against ECU.

UCF Outlook: Here is where I am forced to be a realist – it’s doubtful that the Knights can pull off the win against the Bulls.

As I observed when we previewed the Tulsa game, UCF has not beaten a genuinely good team yet this year. The Knights do not have a win against a team currently ranked higher than 96 per the S&P+. The Knights do not have a win against a team with a better record than 4-7. We’ve beaten the bad teams on the schedule but lost to all the good ones.

Which is not to say that we should be unhappy – this is a team that has exceeded expectations in the rebound from an ugly 0-12 season last year. But the odds are long against USF.

The offense is the problem. It ranks an abysmal 117^th per S&P+. The Knights have demonstrated an inability to sustain drives and suffer from crippling third down inefficiency. UCF has converted 55 of 177 third downs, a mere 31.1%. That clocks in at 122^nd in the country, ahead of only Rutgers, Texas State, Arkansas State, Bowling Green, Illinois, and Tulane. Not good.

Under DC Erik Chinander (Broyles Award nominee!), defense has been the strength of the team. The switch to a base 3-4 has been great for the Knights and especially Shaquem Griffin who has blossomed with the switch to linebacker this year. UCF’s defense is legitimately top 25 but has been asked to do too much, too often. That was obvious last week against Tulsa, when the defense joined the offense in fading in the second half. And it’s been true in losses against Houston and Temple. This defense will be asked to do an awful lot on Saturday against a stellar USF offense.

If the Knights win, it’s going to take a much better performance than normal from the offense. And probably a defensive touchdown or special teams touchdown (fortunately, those have not been all that uncommon for UCF).

USF Outlook: The Bulls have improved each year under head coach Willie Taggart (2-10, 4-8, 8-5, 9-2 and pending). Though they can’t win the division without help from ECU, they’re a dangerous team.

The Bulls are sort of the inverse of the Knights: outstanding offense (2^nd per S&P+) and unimpressive defense (104^th per S&P+).

Quarterback Quinton Flowers has thrown for 2,399 yards and 22 touchdowns this year. He’s also the team’s leading rusher with 1,273 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground. It’s one of the best rushing performances by a quarterback in FBS history. Running back Marlon Mack has also been excellent with 982 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns of his own. Limiting USF’s offense is going to be a tough task for a UCF defense that is better against the pass (19^th per S&P+) than the run (89^th per S&P+).

Fortunately, USF is dead last in the AAC in total yards allowed per game with an average of 489.4. The Bulls have especially struggled in stopping the run. Which means that there’s an opportunity for UCF RBs Jawon Hamilton, Dontravious Wilson, and Adrian Killins. Part of UCF’s poor performance on offense stems from the inability to run successfully on early downs, leaving the Knights behind the chains and struggling on third down. If UCF can sustain drives against a sometimes porous Bulls’ defense, that could be key. USF’s two losses have come against teams that were able to squat on the ball and keep USF’s offense off the field – FSU (40:19 time of possession to USF’s 19:41) and Temple (39:07 time of possession to USF’s 20:53).

Prediction: The Knights have a shot if they’ve got a two touchdown lead by the end of the first half. UCF has tended to fade in the second, so if there’s not an adequate cushion, things could easily get ugly.

Me? I see us hanging tight for a while before USF pulls away. I’ll put it down as a 42-30 loss, and hope to be wrong.

Dysfunction on Offense Dooms UCF: Tulsa Wins 35-20

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/11/19/13689376/ucf-knights-tulsa-golden-hurricane-football-recap-november-2016-james-flanders-d-angelo-brewer

The Knights’ offense was dysfunctional throughout the night and continued to suffer on third down (converting only eight of twenty-three). Tulsa made some huge plays on offensive to overcome a Knights defense that started stout but was asked to do way, way, too much.

UCF freshman quarterback McKenzie Milton was inaccurate throughout the night. Sometimes, he threw too low. Often, he threw too high. It was bad. And it definitely wasn’t enough to keep pace with a Tulsa offense that picked up steam as the game progressed.

Tulsa trampled UCF with its running game tandem of D’Angelo Brewer and James Flanders, who ran for 167 and 163 yards respectively. The Golden Hurricane ended with 474 total yards – 348 of them rushing and 126 passing.

But the game started as a defensive struggle. UCF went three and out (the first of many) to start. And on Tulsa’s first drive, D.J. Killings jumped a route, picking off Dane Evans and taking it to the house for six. It was the Knight’s seventh non-offensive touchdown on the season (a total admittedly skewed by the three defensive touchdowns a couple of weeks ago against Tulane). The Knights went for two, which back-up quarterback Nick Patti picked up easily with a shovel pass to tight end Cal Bloom.

But despite some defensive stands, the disjointed UCF offense failed to extend the lead. Eventually Flanders ripped a sixty yard run, with Demeitre Brim saving the touchdown with a tackle at the second yard line. But soon enough, Flanders was in the end zone.

The Knights suffered a horrible self-inflicted wound with a little over a minute left in the first quarter. Milton and running back Jawon Hamilton botched a pitch to the short side of the field, and Tulsa recovered the fumble giving them great field position. Tulsa would score in short order when UCF’s Justin McDonald failed to wrap up Brewer for what could have been a tackle for a loss.

UCF continued to be ineffective on offense, but hung in thanks to a hard hitting defense and some special teams play. Shaquill Griffin blocked a Tulsa field goal attempt, and UCF’s Matthew Wright hit a 48 yard field goal on the ensuing possession to narrow things to 11-14.

The Knights would add another long field goal – this time from 48 yards – to tie things going into the half. It was a play made possible thanks to a fifteen yard penalty for roughing the passer and targeting by Tulsa’s Petera Wilson, who hammered Milton, helmet to helmet.

But Tulsa would own the third quarter.

On what would have been the Knight’s first possession of the second half, Chris Johnson muffed the punt – the ball bounced off his face mask and directly into the arms of Cristian Williams to give the Golden Hurricanes excellent field position. The Tulsa drive ended in a fifteen yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Josh Atkinson. With the extra point, Tulsa went up 21-14.

Again UCF failed to get anything going on offense and Tulsa took the opportunity to extend the lead. Evans would hit Keevan Lucas for a 45 yard touchdown pass as Lucas backpedaled into the end zone.

In the closing moments of the third quarter, D’Angelo Brewer tacked on another touchdown and the Golden Hurricane made it 34-14. All five of Tulsa’s touchdown drives to this point had been under a minute (Dang, guess who was worried about that?).

But the Knights flirted with giving the fans some hope. Freshman Running Back Adrian Killins Jr. would get a touchdown for the Knights early in the fourth (but Tulsa’s Jerry Uwaezouke blocked the extra point). It was UCF’s first and only offensive touchdown of the night.

The Knights fall to 6-5 with a very tough game against rival USF on Saturday. With a season finale against a bad Cincinnati team, Tulsa will likely end the regular season 9-3.

UCF Knights vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Preview, TV, Streaming, Start Time, Betting Line, Prediction

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/11/18/13676492/ucf-knights-vs-tulsa-golden-hurricane-preview-tv-streaming-start-time-betting-line-prediction

Start Time: Saturday, November 19, 2016 at 8 PM EST/ 7 PM CT.

Location: Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando, FL.

TV/Streaming: ESPNews, streaming on WatchESPN.

Radio/Live Stats: 96.9 FM in Orlando and on the Tulsa side, Big Country 99.5. Check over here for live stats.

Betting Line: UCF opened as a 1.5 point favorite, but that has now flipped. Tulsa is the favorite, by one or 1.5 points depending where you look.

Records: UCF is 6-4, 4-2 in the AAC. Tulsa is 7-3 and is likewise 4-2 in conference play.

All-Time Series: Tulsa has a 6-3 lead in the series, which has its roots in the teams’ Conference USA days. Tulsa was something of a nemesis for UCF. The Golden Hurricane beat the Knights in two conference championship games: 2005 (44-27) and 2012 (in overtime, 33-27)[1].

Two third of the Knights’ wins in the all-time series came in 2007, when UCF beat Tulsa during the regular season and again to win the conference title game.

Last year Tulsa beat the interim head coach Danny Barrett-led Knights 45-30, in what was one of the closer games for the Knights that nightmare season.

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UCF Outlook: With last week’s 24-3 strangulation of Cincinnati, the Knights are bowl eligible. For the second week in a row, the UCF defense looked superb. They held the Bearcats to 327 total yards. Linebacker Shaquem Griffin continues to dominate, adding two sacks last week and leading the team with 10.5 on the year. That’s nearly twice as many as the dude with the second-most sacks (fellow LB Errol Clarke) and achieved with half as many hands. Shaquem Griffin is the best player on this UCF team and his match-up against whoever is trying to block him will be one to focus on tomorrow. Of course, the Knights also executed one of the most thoroughly blocked punts around last week:

But Tulsa is not Cincinnati. The Knights’ defense – clearly the strength of the team all year – will be going up against an excellent offense. If this ends up being a race, it will bode poorly for the Knights. There have been good moments on offense, but UCF is plagued by inconsistency and poor performance on third down.

There’s a lot to like about the Knights this year and they’ve rebounded from a winless 2015 far better than I (or really anyone else) thought they would. But here’s the thing: the Knights have yet to beat a genuinely good team this year – and that’s what Tulsa is. UCF has not defeated a team ranked higher than 86 in the S&P+. Wins have come against SC State (as an FCS team, not ranked), FIU (115), ECU (89), UConn (111), Tulane (98), and Cincinnati (86).

Now, to be fair, the Knights have come close to beating good teams. Crazy close. UCF lost to Temple (when the Owls scored with :01 left on the clock to take a one point lead) and Houston (24-31, choking away a big first half lead). And there was the double overtime loss against Maryland. But at some point you have close one out against a good team. We’ll see if the Knights can do so tomorrow.

Tulsa Outlook: Tulsa’s comeback bid against Navy fell short last week and the Golden Hurricane were edged out 42-40. Like the Knights, the Golden Hurricane are no strangers to close conference losses this season – their other AAC loss came 38-31 against Houston when the Cougars forced a fumble, scooped, and scored. Much as the Knights could easily have had a few more wins this season, Tulsa could easily be 9-1 if a handful of plays had gone differently.

Tulsa’s offense is capable of success both on the ground and through the air. The Golden Hurricane are ranked second in the AAC in scoring with 42.2 points per game (conversely, the Knights are second in scoring defense with 20.6). Quarterback Dane Evans has passed for 2,613 yards and 22 touchdowns. He’s now the school’s all-time passing leader.

Running backs D’Angelo Brewer and James Flanders each have over a thousand yards rushing, and five and fourteen rushing touchdowns respectively. And the Golden Hurricane can score fast – they have 27 scoring drives in regulation of less than two minutes, including ten under one minute.

If these two teams end up pacing each other for scores, then look for things to ultimately go the way of the Golden Hurricane. They’ve shown far, far, far more consistency on offense than the Knights have.

Prediction: Vegas and the advanced stats have this as a close game. Football Study Hall puts it at 50% (but evidently a slight edge to Tulsa, calling it a 0.1 point loss for the Knights). While this game could easily be a coin flip, I fret about the Knights’ inconsistency on offense. And I focus on the fact that the Knights have not beaten a good team yet.

I’ll call it a Tulsa win, 38-24.

[1] That was the second time that season that Tulsa beat the Knights. Two weeks before that Conference USA Championship, Tulsa won 23-21 at Chapman Stadium.

UCF Knights vs University of Cincinnati Bearcats: Preview, Betting Line, Start Time, TV, Radio, Prediction

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/11/11/13595708/ucf-knights-v-university-of-cincinnati-bearcats-football-preview-tv-streaming-odds-prediction-uc

Start Time: Noon on Saturday, November 12, 2016

Location: Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando, FL

TV/Streaming: ESPNU

Radio/Live Stats: 96.9 FM/740 AM in Orlando, and over here for live stats.

Betting Line: UCF opened as a ten point favorite and is now an 11.5 point favorite most places.

Records: UCF is 5-4, 3-2 in the AAC. Cincinnati is 4-5 and 1-4, their sole AAC win coming against ECU.

All-Time Series: UCF is 0-1 against Cincinnati, the loss being a 52-7 brutalizing last year. Just one of a string of absolute blowouts in that season that the Knights were on the receiving end of. Bearcats quarterback Gunner Kiel had a QBR of 431 when he got to rest during garbage time in the second quarter.

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UCF Outlook: Bowl eligibility. Bowl eligibility.

We’re almost there.

The win last week was critical to get to five. With the last two games coming against Tulsa and USF, Cincinnati represents UCF’s best chance to lock in a sixth win. And what a bounce back from 2015’s winless nightmare that would be.

The Knights defense has been the strength of the team. The Knights are 31^st in total defense. And 18^th in third down defense. That’s a happy thing when you’re playing a team that’s as poor on third down as the Bearcats are (the Knights of course are deeply dysfunctional on third down themselves, but that’s another story). There should be much for UCF fans to look forward to against the offensively challenged Bearcats.

On the other side of the ball, UCF’s offense continues to be inconsistent. The Knights need to do better on early downs to avoid the third and long situations that they are so inept at. Oh, and stop the torrent of penalties.

With this being the game immediately following Veteran’s day, the Knights are wearing gold helmets that will feature the emblems of armed service branches. And yes, they will be up for auction following the game. Fantastic stuff:

Cincinnati Outlook: Things for the Bearcats are looking not so good. UC has dropped four of their last five games, including last week’s 20-3 loss against BYU in which head coach Tommy Tuberville growled at a fan to “go to Hell” and “get a job.”

It’s looking more and more like Tuberville might need to get a new job himself – though he signed a two year extension last spring, the season has been so bleak that he may well be out the door when it ends.

On offense, Cincinnati looks bad. They’re 118^th nationally in scoring offense (20.6 points per game). They haven’t had a touchdown in six quarters of football. It’s unclear whether we’ll see Kiel, Hayden Moore, or Ross Trail starting at QB for the Bearcats – Tuberville has declined to commit. Cincinnati is led in rushing by Tion Green who has 559 yards on the year. Green normally shares carries with Mike Boone (338 yards), but Boone was injured against BYU and is doubtful. With how little success the Bearcats have achieved, it’s hard to believe they will scrape together enough points to overcome UCF.

But the defense has been decent. The Bearcats are stout at the gut (so expect the Knights to try to work outside, as they often do). They’re also opportunistic. And that’s the upside for Cincinnati – the Knights play sloppy on offense pretty often and though freshman QB McKenzie Milton has been very good for UCF, he has at times made bunches of bad mistakes. If you’re a Bearcats fan, that’s where your hope lies.

Prediction: Especially for loyal reader George Ujueta who has teased me about a lack of a hard prediction in this space, here you go: UCF wins, 24 to 10.

For more in advance of the game, check out our Q&A with Cincinnati blog Down the Drive over here. My answers to DtD’s questions are over there.

Five Questions with Down the Drive in Advance of UCF-Cincinnati

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/11/10/13589890/five-questions-with-down-the-drive-in-advance-of-ucf-cincinnati

On Saturday, the UCF Knights take on the Cincinnati Bearcats. The Knights are one win form bowl eligibility. Will this game do the trick?

We talked with Phil Neuffer from Bearcats blog Down the Drive to get a sense of what UCF fans can expect from UC. You can follow Phil on Twitter @PhilNeuffer.

1. What UC players should UCF fans be focused on - Offense? Defense?

Running back Tion Green and wide receiver Devin Gray stand out as the most dangerous playmakers. Green will have an increased workload this week because of the uncertainty around Mike Boone, who left last week’s game with a leg injury. Normally Green and Boone share the carries, but due to the Bearcats lack of depth at the position, Green will be given the role of feature back. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing since he has rushed for 559 yards on 118 attempts, including an 82-yard effort last week.

As for Gray, he has established himself as the No. 1 target on a team with several talented receiving options (Kahlil Lewis and Nate Cole are both big play threats). Gray leads the team in receptions (46) and receiving yards (668) and has been the most consistent pass-catcher, with at least four receptions in all but one game this season. No other UC receiver can claim a similar stat line.

2. The Bearcats are coming off a game where they scored a season-low 3 points. Can you diagnose the offensive woes for us and will they continue?

UC’s offensive problems have been poisoning the team all season. The Bearcats haven’t scored a touchdown in the last six quarters and a lot of it comes down to an inability to sustain drives. They are second to last in the conference in time of possession and too often go three and out with uninspired play calling. It has not helped that there has been no clear answer at quarterback, but this team has talent, it’s just becoming harder and harder to believe that that talent is being utilized the right way.

3. What do you view as the key position match-up on Saturday?

I’d say the match-up between Shaquem Griffin and whoever is blocking him. His ability to create pressure or negative plays could be a real detriment for UC, which needs time to develop plays as it runs out of the shotgun and often looks for longer passes.

4. The advanced stats give UCF a 66% chance of winning. Do you tend to think that's a fair assessment or do you tend to disagree?

I think it is a more than fair assessment. Its surreal that UC topped UCF 52-7 last season and now I’d be pretty surprised if they traveled south and came away with a win. UC has just shown no positive offensive consistency this season and although the defense has been better, it isn’t a unit that will win games for you.

5. Seriously, what is up with Tommy Tuberville and what does his future look like at UC?

I’d say his future looks rather bleak, even if he did sign a two-year extension this past spring. The fans are calling for his head and this week the tension finally started to boil over. If UC somehow manages to go to a bowl that might buy him one more year, but I don’t expect it to at this point and with how pitiful the team has looked, Mike Bohn (UC’s athletic director) would be crazy to just keep the status quo.

Three Defensive Touchdowns: UCF Shames Tulane in 37-6 Romp

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/11/5/13538100/ucf-knights-tulane-green-wave-football-recap-2016

UCF’s defense jumped all over Tulane and embarrassed quarterback Glen Cuiellette en route to a 37-6 win in Orlando. UCF’s sometimes sputtering offense proved nearly irrelevant – even one of the touchdowns scored by the Knights’ secondary would have been enough to secure the win.

Things started slow for UCF. Freshman running back Adrian Killins fumbled on the first play from scrimmage, and Tulane running back Dontrell Hilliard capped the ensuing Green Wave drive with a fourteen yard touchdown run. It turned out that this would be the only points Tulane could score – even the extra point was blocked.

Freshman QB McKenzie Milton threw a pick on the next drive. The offense was fitful, though McKenzie Milton ran in a touchdown about midway through the second quarter. The half closed at a tight 7-6 Knights lead.

In the third quarter, the Knights took over. Safety Drico Johnson played his assignment perfect, snatching Cuiellette’s pitch from the air and running it back thirty yards for the Knight’s first of three defensive touchdowns. Tulane never had a shot to recover. On the next drive, Cuiellette tossed an interception to Shaquill Griffin – who returned it 33 yards for a touchdown. And early in the fourth quarter, Johnson grabbed his own interception and took it 86 yards back to add the third defensive touchdown of the evening for the Knights.

UCF would add a Matthew Wright field goal, and Shaquill Griffin would tack on another pick, this time in UCF’s end zone. It was also nice to see senior quarterback and former starter Justin Holman in for a drive during garbage time. He got to showcase his big arm with a 50 yard pass to Hayden Jones and ran in a touchdown.

Adding to the fun was the fact that UCF ran fake pass plays three times. The first two, Milton handed the ball off behind his back to Adrian Killins for some nice runs. On the last, Holman also faked the behind the back hand off and kept it.

Oh: and the Knights looked awesome in all black uniforms.

For Tulane, Cuiellette would end an abysmal 5 of 21 for 68 yards, the three interceptions, and the lost fumble on the pitch Johnson grabbed. Goodness.

Tulane remains winless in away games at UCF. The Green Wave continue to demonstrate that they are among the dregs of the AAC; with their next two games against Houston and Tulane, the Green Wave’s season finale against East division bottom dweller UConn is their only reasonable opportunity to get a conference win this year.

With the win, UCF looks very likely to get bowl eligible, a tremendous relief after last year’s winless slog. The Knights need only one more win, and UCF will be rightly favored against Cincinnati next week (and other chances will come - Tulsa is probably a toss-up, though the season finale against USF a likely loss).

UCF Knights vs Tulane Green Wave: Preview, Betting Line, Start Time, TV, Radio

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/11/4/13524176/ucf-knights-v-tulane-green-wave-football-preview-tv-streaming-betting-line-prediction

 tart Time: Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 5 PM EST.

Location: Brighthouse Networks Stadium , Orlando, FL

TV/Streaming: WatchESPN. Sigh.

Radio/Live Stats: 96.9 FM/740 AM in Orlando, and over here for live stats.

Betting Line: UCF opened as a 16.5 favorite, but is now a 17 point favorite depending where you look.

Records: UCF is 4-4, 2-2 in the AAC. Tulane is 3-5, with four conference losses and not a single win.

All-Time Series: UCF leads, 5-2. Tulane has never won in Orlando.

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UCF Outlook: This is an important game for the Knights in order to get bowl eligible. At this point in the season, we know who the Knights are – a middling team that shows promise for the future but makes too many mistakes and has trouble closing out games (Maryland in double overtime. Temple with :01 on the clock. Houston in a second half collapse). Looking at the schedule that remains, USF is a likely loss. Tulsa a toss-up. Tulane and Cincinnati look like the likely wins – so let’s see the Knights collect them and get bowl eligible. If on the other hand the Knights lose to a poor Tulane team, it portends very bad things for UCF’s bowl prospects.

So let’s take care of business and not have to worry about it, hm?

Last week’s collapse was lamentable, but linebacker Shaquem Griffin continues to be the star of the defense. Against Houston, the one-handed Griffin notched 14 tackles, 2.5 sacks, a fumble recovery, and – yes – his first interception.

I thought I might embed a video of the interception, but then I thought this was mroe awesome and decided to embed it instead:

Griffin has 10% of the team’s total tackles (tied for first on the team with fellow LB Mark Rucker – both have 48). Griffin also leads the Knights in tackles for loss (12), sacks (8.5, or 43% of the Knights’ sacks), and forced fumbles (2).

I’ll look for his success to continue against the most beatable team left on the slate ...

Tulane Outlook: Like the Knights, Tulane is also coming off a tough loss. The Green Wave allowed SMU to score 14 points in less than six and a half minutes and lost 35-31. That made it three in a row for Tulane, who also lost to Memphis and Tulsa in October.

During its three game skid, Tulane has suffered from numerous self-inflicted injuries in the form of penalties. After only having 29 penalties through the first five games of the season, the Green Wave racked up 26 in the last three.

Expect the Green Wave to pound the ball. Tulane has the sixteenth ranked rushing offense in terms of total yardage with an average of 248 per game. Tulane is led on the ground by junior RB Dontrell Hilliard, who has eight touchdowns and is averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Two other RBs are also getting at least six yards per carry – seniors Josh Rounds and Lazedrick Thompson.[1] If Tulane’s going to win, it’s because they follow a Temple-esque blueprint.

[1] Among those with meaningful carries. Freshman Andrew Zuckerman has 26 yards on 4 carries. OK.

Houston defeats UCF 31-24 in comeback win

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/10/29/13466508/houston-defeats-ucf-31-24-in-comeback-win-cougars-overcome-21-point-deficit-to-beat-knights

Well, that game was a comedy of errors.

On Houston’s side, Greg Ward threw three interceptions in the first half and then the Cougars fumbled immediately to open the second half when Ward and Duke Catalon could not complete a zone-read handoff.

UCF happily reciprocated in the second half with four turnovers of its own: two interceptions and two fumbles.

Houston surged back to life and took the lead for the first time in the game with 7:27 left to play. The Cougars held on for the 31-24 win.

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As my colleague Chas stated in the preview, it has not been a happy three weeks for the Cougars. They became marginally happier after the win over UCF but it wasn’t pretty and required an 21-point comeback in the second half to solidify.

In the first half, Houston looked tired and uninterested. The Cougars finished the first quarter with a no points and a net of ZERO rushing yards — and two interceptions by Ward.

On the first, his intended receiver Chance Allen fell down on the play and could not complete his route. On the second, the pass was tipped at the line of scrimmage.

Regardless, the Knights raced out to 14-3 lead and tacked on another TD before halftime to take a 21-3 lead into the break.

UCF outgained Houston on the ground in the first half 95 yards to -12 yards. Yes, the Cougars totaled negative rushing yards in the first half thanks to three sacks on Ward and a muffed snap that lost eight yards.

UH had no fire. No passion. No running game. No downfield strikes. No fluidity. The Cougars also gave up big penalties at bad times that helped UCF sustain drives.

The Knights mounted scoring drives of 47, 54 and 82 yards in the first half. Ironically, as you’ll see by the final rushing totals, all three TDs came on the ground: one by Jawon Hamilton, one by Adrian Killins and one by Dontravious Wilson.

But that was where the good times stopped for UCF. The second half was a complete and total role reversal — except for Houston’s first drive.

The Cougars gave the sparse crowd even less to cheer about by fumbling 36 seconds into the third quarter. UCF banked a field goal to go ahead 24-3 —

But then Houston came to life.

The Coogs scored 28 unanswered points in the second half to claim the victory.

Ward rushed in a QB keeper to get things started after the UCF field goal.

24-10 — UCF

Houston’s Nick Thurman forced a fumble on UCF’s next drive that was recovered by Steven Taylor.

Brandon Wilson ended the Knights’ next drive with an interception and Ward found tight end Romello Booker in the back of the end zone for Houston’s next TD.

24-17 — UCF

UCF moved the ball on its next drive ... but then a bad snap sailed past quarterback McKenzie Milton and he recovered it for a 13-yard loss that forced a punt.

Two drives later, Wilson picked off Milton again. Both teams struggled through the end of the third quarter, but Houston started scoring again in the fourth.

Catalon, who was helped off the field in the first half with what looked to be a painful left leg injury, busted a run around the left side for a 12-yard touchdown.

24-24

Milton was sacked and threw two incomplete passes and the ball returned to Houston.

Ward, Catalon and Dillon Birden worked the ball down the field and the drive ended with a 14-yard TD rush by Ward with 7:27 left in the game.

31-24 — Houston

Thus ended the scoring.

Overall, it was a rough game on both sides. Houston had just enough in the second half to grab the win.

The Cougars gave up four sacks. The Knights gave up three. Both teams turned the ball over four times. The most devastating part for UCF was that it rushed for a net of just 40 yards.

But the highlight for the Knights was that receiver Tre’Quan Smith hauled in 13 passes for 137 yards, a personal best. He found open holes in the Houston secondary and when Milton had time to pass, Smith was hard to stop.

NEXT WEEK: Houston has a bye. UCF is back home to face Tulane.