Start Time: Saturday, October 29, 2016 at 12 PM ET/11:00 AM CT.
Location: TDECU Stadium
TV/Streaming: ESPNU and WatchESPN
Radio/Live Stats: 96.9 FM740 AM (Orlando) and KPRC 950 AM (Houston) for radio. Live stats are here.
Betting Line: Houston opened as a 12.5 point favorite, but that’s shrunk a bit to -9.5 now.
Records: UCF is 4-3 and 2-1 in the AAC. The Knights have already matched our prediction
for total wins this year and have progressed farther than expected in
head coach Scott Frost’s first year. The Cougars are 6-2 and 3-2 AAC – a
fine record but terribly disappointing given the expectations. Houston
is ranked #24 in the Coaches Poll.
All-Time Series: The Knights led the series, which stretches back to these teams’ Conference USA days, at 5-2. Last year Houston crushed UCF in Orlando,
prompting George O’Leary’s resignation. The last time the game was
played in Houston, the Knights prevailed when Brandon Alexander forced a
Greg Ward Jr. fumble through the end zone for a touch back to preserve
the lead. The latter result is a more typical UCF/Houston finish – games
in this series have been tight historically.
Houston Outlook: It hasn’t been a happy
three weeks for the Cougars. Houston looked like world-beaters after
slapping around the Oklahoma Sooners in week one but seem to have faded
of late. October was not kind: Houston was beaten by Navy 46-40, edged out Tulsa 38-31 thanks to some Herculean efforts, and was smashed last week by SMU 38-16. The Cougars look unlikely to recapture the AAC West from Navy.
Houston has nonetheless been the better of these two
teams and ought to beat the Knights. But as last week’s surprising loss
demonstrates, nothing can be taken for granted, even at home. This
team’s state of mind is a big question mark.
But for what it’s worth, the advanced stats give Houston a
71% chance to win and predict a margin of 9.6. I’m not sure I like the
Cougars’ prospects quite that much, but it feels about right.
The Knights are a bit vulnerable to a mobile quarterback, and some of
the things that sank Houston last week (two fumbles lost in the first
four drives!) are unlikely to recur.
UCF Outlook: Last week the Knights rebounded from their earlier soul-deadening, last second loss to Temple with a come from behind win in the greatest rivalry in college athletics
an AAC East division match-up against UConn. It was a victory achieved
largely on freshman quarterback McKenzie Milton’s arm (29/45, 317 yards,
3 TDs), as the Knights did not lean on the run as much as they have
typically done. The game also saw freshman wide receiver Dredrick
Snelson make an impact for the first time – the former four star recruit
had five receptions for a team-high 63 yards and a touchdown.
SMU showed last week that Navy’s success against Houston
was not an aberration. SMU capitalized on early turnovers, hounded Greg
Ward Jr. (sacked 7 times), and had great success running and squatting
on the ball. Could UCF do the same? Eh, maybe.
But the Knights have seldom put everything together at
the same time this year. Their turnover luck has been mostly bad, and
while the Knights have been successful running the ball, clock-chewing
drives have not been their strong suit (Temple game, anyone?). Still,
the Knights have done a fine job attacking the quarterback. Especially
everyone’s favorite one-handed linebacker – Shaquem Griffin – who leads
the team with six sacks and 9 tackles for loss.
It requires the Knights to play more mistake free than
they have all year, but a win is certainly plausible (even if I can’t
predict it’s likely).
No comments:
Post a Comment