Start Time: Noon on Saturday, November 12, 2016
Location: Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando, FL
TV/Streaming: ESPNU
Radio/Live Stats: 96.9 FM/740 AM in Orlando, and over here for live stats.
Betting Line: UCF opened as a ten point favorite and is now an 11.5 point favorite most places.
Records: UCF is 5-4, 3-2 in the AAC. Cincinnati is 4-5 and 1-4, their sole AAC win coming against ECU.
All-Time Series: UCF is 0-1 against Cincinnati, the loss being a 52-7 brutalizing last year.
Just one of a string of absolute blowouts in that season that the
Knights were on the receiving end of. Bearcats quarterback Gunner Kiel
had a QBR of 431 when he got to rest during garbage time in the second quarter.
UCF Outlook: Bowl eligibility. Bowl eligibility.
We’re almost there.
The win last week
was critical to get to five. With the last two games coming against
Tulsa and USF, Cincinnati represents UCF’s best chance to lock in a
sixth win. And what a bounce back from 2015’s winless nightmare that
would be.
The Knights defense has been the strength of the team. The Knights are 31st in total defense. And 18th
in third down defense. That’s a happy thing when you’re playing a team
that’s as poor on third down as the Bearcats are (the Knights of course
are deeply dysfunctional on third down themselves, but that’s another
story). There should be much for UCF fans to look forward to against the
offensively challenged Bearcats.
On the other side of the ball, UCF’s offense continues to
be inconsistent. The Knights need to do better on early downs to avoid
the third and long situations that they are so inept at. Oh, and stop
the torrent of penalties.
With this being the game immediately following Veteran’s
day, the Knights are wearing gold helmets that will feature the emblems
of armed service branches. And yes, they will be up for auction
following the game. Fantastic stuff:
Cincinnati Outlook: Things for the
Bearcats are looking not so good. UC has dropped four of their last five
games, including last week’s 20-3 loss against BYU in which head coach
Tommy Tuberville growled at a fan to “go to Hell” and “get a job.”
It’s looking more and more like Tuberville might need to
get a new job himself – though he signed a two year extension last
spring, the season has been so bleak that he may well be out the door
when it ends.
On offense, Cincinnati looks bad. They’re 118th
nationally in scoring offense (20.6 points per game). They haven’t had a
touchdown in six quarters of football. It’s unclear whether we’ll see
Kiel, Hayden Moore, or Ross Trail starting at QB for the Bearcats –
Tuberville has declined to commit. Cincinnati is led in rushing by Tion
Green who has 559 yards on the year. Green normally shares carries with
Mike Boone (338 yards), but Boone was injured against BYU and is
doubtful. With how little success the Bearcats have achieved, it’s hard
to believe they will scrape together enough points to overcome UCF.
But the defense has been decent. The Bearcats are stout
at the gut (so expect the Knights to try to work outside, as they often
do). They’re also opportunistic. And that’s the upside for Cincinnati –
the Knights play sloppy on offense pretty often and though freshman QB
McKenzie Milton has been very good for UCF, he has at times made bunches
of bad mistakes. If you’re a Bearcats fan, that’s where your hope lies.
Prediction: Especially for loyal reader
George Ujueta who has teased me about a lack of a hard prediction in
this space, here you go: UCF wins, 24 to 10.
For more in advance of the game, check out our Q&A with Cincinnati blog Down the Drive over here. My answers to DtD’s questions are over there.
No comments:
Post a Comment